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agentmancuso
Getting on a bit!
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 1812
Location: Darkest Lanarkshire
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 Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2007 11:51 am Post subject: French Presidential Election |
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With voting only a few days away the centrist candidate Bayrou has delivered another inspirational speech:
| Quote: | Parmi les "sectaires", il a commencé par ranger Nicolas Sarkozy, dont le nom a immédiatement déclenché une véritable bronca, qui "a jugé que François Bayrou est à gauche".
"Dans sa bouche, c'est presque une insulte, s'est moqué M. Bayrou. C'est un peu comme s'il avait dit que je suis un immigré, que j'égorge des moutons dans ma baignoire ou que je suis un pervers génétique." Est ensuite venu le tour de Lionel Jospin, qui, "du haut de ses succès, a déclaré que François Bayrou est à droite" : "C'est presque comme si, à ses yeux, j'étais devenu un trotskiste déviationniste!" "Eh bien, a poursuivi M. Bayrou, si vous saviez comme je suis heureux de ne pas avoir le label de la droite à la mode Sarkozy ni celui de la gauche à la mode Jospin." |
Amen to that.
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Holebender
I need ma own bl**dy forum!
Joined: 04 Apr 2007
Posts: 1260
Location: Here or There
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2007 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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Could have been worse... they could have labelled him a Liberal Democrat! 
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macnumpty
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Joined: 11 Feb 2006
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Location: Exiled down south.
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2007 7:28 pm Post subject: |
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To be fair, Sarko would claim that Genghis Khan was à gauche!
Personally, if Sarkozy absolutely has to get to the Second Round, I'd prefer it if he were up against Bayrou. A Sarkozy-Royal run-off would just polarise voters even more and put off the centre ground. Given that Royal is trailing Sarko, there's no guarantee that she would win a contest whereas Bayrou would be able to add the support of the left to his own centrist support. I don't see Royal adding centrist support to her own left(ish) support. In fact, I'm not sure that she could even count on the backing of the far-left supporters.
Many compare her to Blair, but Blair managed for a time to pacify the Left and attract the Centre/Right. Ségo has frustrated the Left by trying to ape Blair, but the voters who he attracted still look at the rest of her party, and are still put off. She might be more of a Kinnock.
Basically, if I were French, I'd be supporting Bayrou, not because of who he is, but because of who he isn't. It would be an Arrêtez Sarkozy vote, in much the same way that Chirac's support in 2002 was an Arrêtez Le Pen vote.
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agentmancuso
Getting on a bit!
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2007 8:08 pm Post subject: |
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| macnumpty wrote: | | To be fair, Sarko would claim that Genghis Khan was à gauche! . |
Very probably. I was following the Bayrou candidacy fairly closely at first, before things at home started heating up. It seemed to be taken for granted by many commentators that if Bayrou managed to get through to the second round he would win outright. Only problem being that he probably won't make it...
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macnumpty
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| Posted: Thu Apr 19, 2007 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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Yes, it's a shame, for a while he did actually have momentum, but it seems to have vanished.
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^ ^ This is Bunny. Bunny wishes that he was on the electoral roll in Glasgow East, so he could vote for John Mason. He also reminds you to read the Our Scotland Blog. |
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LAz
Nationalist
Joined: 28 Feb 2007
Posts: 113
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| Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 8:17 pm Post subject: |
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I am not rooting for sarkozy. I want him to lose.
I'd root for the socialists.
Thought there is an interesting party in France... the national front... I like their ideas of exiting the EU and not using the Euro, which is genius... they also seem to be socialistic. However, they are rather racist.
edit:
But basically what I expect to happen is to see sarkozy get the most votes int he first round and be against the socialist person in the runoff and I think that the socialist one would win in the runoff. |
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agentmancuso
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| Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 8:32 pm Post subject: |
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(Politely) I think it probable that you will prove mistaken on the second point. Sarkozy has to be the favourite.
(Not politely.) You are wrong on the first point. The Front National are not interesting. They are racist scumbags.
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LAz
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| Posted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 9:33 pm Post subject: |
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| agentmancuso wrote: | (Politely) I think it probable that you will prove mistaken on the second point. Sarkozy has to be the favourite.
(Not politely.) You are wrong on the first point. The Front National are not interesting. They are racist scumbags. |
Well I am in a place where there are only two parties which have a monopoly over the whole political system and therefore I find almost every part that is different from these two to be interesting. In particular I find the national front to be interesting because I do not know of other political parties in the world like them. As I said, I really like their ideas of exiting the EU and not using the Euro. That alone makes them interesting. Their racism is interesting too, as such parties usually do not have huge popularity and so this one is unique and most unique parties with much support are interesting to me. The beer drinkers party, in poland or germany, is not interesting to me because their popularity is very low. If it was high I would say that they are interesting.
I read an article, posted bellow, saying that Sarkozy is projected at 29% and the socialist closely behind with 25. This will put the two into the second round. Then the question is what will happen in the second round... since Lepen's party is out, his backers will probably support the socialists, giving the socialists 40% versus sarkozy's 28. Then take into account the remaining vote, and I think that the socialist candidate will win.
| Quote: | Final poll rallies held in France
20 April 2007 | 10:01 | Source: BBC
PARIS -- The main candidates in the French presidential election held their final campaign rallies.
As Friday sees the last day of campaigning, a new opinion poll shows centre-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy still leading with 29%, ahead of the Socialist Segolene Royal on 25%.
The BVA poll has the centrist candidate Francois Bayrou slipping to 15%. But at least one-third of voters remain undecided ahead of Sunday's first round. A runoff is expected on 6 May.
All four main candidates headed south for their last rallies. Sarkozy went to Marseille, while Ms Royal was in Toulouse.
Far-right National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, currently polling about 13%, went to Nice. He came a surprise second in the 2002 election.
Bayrou, leader of the Union for French Democracy (UDF), was in Pau, near his native Pyrenees.
The BBC's Alasdair Sandford, in Paris, says that with many voters still undecided, the two frontrunners have been turning their fire on Bayrou, each accusing him of belonging to their main rival's camp.
"I knew him for years as a man of the right," said Sarkozy. "For some time now, he's been changing and has become the candidate of the left. The only question is: Did he ask voters if they agree?"
In a French radio interview Ms Royal also accused Sarkozy of trying to win over supporters of Le Pen "at any price", risking "a republican split".
An editorial in the French daily Le Monde urged voters to send Sarkozy and Ms Royal into the second round, saying it was important for two differing "visions of society" to be represented in the runoff.
There are more than one million newly registered voters, the biggest increase in 25 years. Many of them are young people or French living abroad, whose voting intentions are hard to gauge, BBC European affairs correspondent Oana Lungescu reports.
Another novelty is the use of electronic voting machines in some districts, criticized by the Socialists and some other opposition parties as dangerously unreliable. They will be used by 1.5 million voters.
Six out of 10 voters say they trust neither the left nor the right to govern the country, and one in eight is ready to switch allegiance, Oana Lungescu reports.
Ms Royal hopes to become France's first woman president, but left-wing voters are among the most volatile, surveys suggest. She has several rivals on the left who could undermine her support. |
(edit: I put the wrong link, there's the right one,
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/globe...nav_category=117&nav_id=40789
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macnumpty
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Joined: 11 Feb 2006
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Location: Exiled down south.
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| Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2007 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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Well, the voting is over, and it's Sarkozy and Royal in the Second Round.
The current France2 projections have Sarkozy on 31%, Royal on 25%, Bayrou on 19% and Le Pen lagging behind on 11%. Assuming that Le Pen, de Villiers (Movement for France) and Nihous (Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions) voters switch to Sarkozy, that puts the right on 45% by my reckoning. Taking the rest with the exception of Bayrou to be leftist, that gives Royal 36%, with Bayrou's 19% deciding the election.
France2 are reporting an IPSOS poll that has Sarkozy winning the Second Round 54% to 46%.
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azzuri
'Our Scotland' Fossil
Joined: 12 Sep 2005
Posts: 3776
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| Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2007 10:25 pm Post subject: |
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Mike Smithson at politicalbetting.com has been doing some great reviews and predictions of what he believes will happen in the French Presidential election - have a look in as it's worth a read.
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agentmancuso
Getting on a bit!
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| Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2007 11:30 am Post subject: |
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| macnumpty wrote: | that puts the right on 45% by my reckoning. Taking the rest with the exception of Bayrou to be leftist, that gives Royal 36%, with Bayrou's 19% deciding the election.
France2 are reporting an IPSOS poll that has Sarkozy winning the Second Round 54% to 46%. |
Seems very likely - Bayrou's vote will just split in half. Good to see that Le Pen has bombed anyway.
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LAz
Nationalist
Joined: 28 Feb 2007
Posts: 113
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| Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2007 2:31 pm Post subject: |
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| macnumpty wrote: | Well, the voting is over, and it's Sarkozy and Royal in the Second Round.
The current France2 projections have Sarkozy on 31%, Royal on 25%, Bayrou on 19% and Le Pen lagging behind on 11%. Assuming that Le Pen, de Villiers (Movement for France) and Nihous (Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions) voters switch to Sarkozy, that puts the right on 45% by my reckoning. Taking the rest with the exception of Bayrou to be leftist, that gives Royal 36%, with Bayrou's 19% deciding the election.
France2 are reporting an IPSOS poll that has Sarkozy winning the Second Round 54% to 46%. |
I am questioning if Lepen's voters would back sarkozy. Yeah, they are from the right but their economic policies are FAR FAR left. Out of economic similarities I think that they would vote for the socialist.
Anyhows, Sarkozy got 29.1 and Royal got 25.1. |
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macnumpty
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| Posted: Mon Apr 23, 2007 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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Ah, but do people vote FN for their economic policies?
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LAz
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| Posted: Wed May 02, 2007 7:12 pm Post subject: |
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| macnumpty wrote: | | Ah, but do people vote FN for their economic policies? |
Maybe, but most probably don't. lol
edit: Most as in the overwhelming majority. |
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cornubian
Gaining a Reputation........
Joined: 03 Aug 2006
Posts: 175
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LAz
Nationalist
Joined: 28 Feb 2007
Posts: 113
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| Posted: Sat May 12, 2007 4:46 pm Post subject: |
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Eh well, it was a close election. I was almost right in my prediction. I got the results of the first round right. And as we see, Sarkozy won by a very slim margin, which means that those who discredit the socialists are ignorant to the situation.
What's Sarkozy's position towards the immigrants ? |
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