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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3180
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 Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 6:37 pm Post subject: Glasgow North East By-election |
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On the assumption that there is a by-election, which is by no means certain, can anybody but Labour win it? It would need something like a 23% swing to the SNP if they were to take it.
But by sheer co-incidence, that was the swing that won them Glasgow East.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8057400.stm
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Shagpile
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 03 Jan 2006
Posts: 794
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| Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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The only alternative on the ballot was SNP?
Full ticket now....... yep, walk in the park!  |
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Cruachan
Helping with the Count
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 296
Location: The English Midlands
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| Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Shagpile wrote: | The only alternative on the ballot was SNP?
Full ticket now....... yep, walk in the park! |
The Tories and Lib Dems declined to field a candidate in 2005 following Wetsminster "protocol" on not standing against the Speaker. SNP constitution requires a candidate in every election.
General Election 2005: Glasgow North East
Party Candidate Votes
Speaker Michael Martin 15,153 (53.3%)
Scottish National Party, John McLaughlin 5,019 (17.7%)
Socialist Labour, Doris Kelly 4,036 (14.2%)
Scottish Socialist, Graham Campbell 1,402 (4.9%)
Scottish Unionist, Daniel Houston 1,266 (4.5%)
British National Party, Scott McLean 920 (3.2%)
Independent Joe Chambers 622 (2.2%)
Majority 10,134 (35.7%)
Turnout 28,418 (45.8%)
If the by-election is held by, say, early October 2009, what chances of a Labour vote implosion?
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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3180
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| Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 7:23 pm Post subject: |
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The Beeb are trying to make the by-election into a vote about MPs expenses. But I would suggest there are many issues more important than MPs fleecing the system, not least Scottish Independence.
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Cruachan
Helping with the Count
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 296
Location: The English Midlands
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| Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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| Reluctant Hero wrote: | | The Beeb are trying to make the by-election into a vote about MPs expenses. But I would suggest there are many issues more important than MPs fleecing the system, not least Scottish Independence. |
Yes, expenses issue is bound to be high on media agenda but key is to widen this into debate on the wider bankrupt political system at Westminster, declining relevance of London based parliament to Scottish voters, end game for the union, etc, - oh, and "we've got what it takes" to govern our own country, without the "mother of parliaments" to give moral authority and a Union safety net.
Who will be the brave soul in Scottish Labour to step into the breach?
Glasgow North East by-election will be a real opportunity for SNP to regain the momentum after the Dunfermline result. Mind you, at this rate the "by-election" might be the same day as a UK general election.
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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3180
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| Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Cruachan wrote: | | Who will be the brave soul in Scottish Labour to step into the breach? |
I doubt it will be Margaret Curran 
Is there a certain time period that they have to call it by? Some people are saying July, some are saying September. Can they get away without having one before the General Election if the GE is next May as expected?
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kevin04
Standing in a Council Ward
Joined: 06 Mar 2007
Posts: 462
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| Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Order, Order! |
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Corby Boy
Standing in a Council Ward
Joined: 12 Oct 2006
Posts: 487
Location: South of Hadrian's Wall
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| Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 10:00 pm Post subject: |
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| ITV news this evening were certainly talking on the assumption that there will be a by-election e.g. 'it is last thing that Gordon Brown needs right now, and that there may be an independent candidate running on an anti-sleaze ticket'. Although timings were not mentioned. It must be assumed that it will probably have to happen before the end of the year. |
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Rinty
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 19 Sep 2005
Posts: 3601
Location: SW Scotland
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| Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 10:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Likely to be summer from what I am hearing, there has to be a byelection due to the 'protocol' that Cruachan mentioned in an earlier post. As the other major parties agree not to stand against a speaker, a byelection is necessary as he won the seat as "speaker' not as "labour". |
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Stevie
Independentist
Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 1179
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| Posted: Tue May 19, 2009 11:06 pm Post subject: |
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What do you mean the other parties don't stand against the speaker?
How does that work?
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chicmac
Standing in a Council Ward
Joined: 18 Mar 2008
Posts: 459
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| Posted: Wed May 20, 2009 12:11 am Post subject: |
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| Bravehand wrote: | What do you mean the other parties don't stand against the speaker?
How does that work? |
There is a tri-partied understanding at Westminster between Tory/Lab/Lib that whichever party the Speaker belongs to the other two will not oppose him/her in an Election.
This does not apply to the SNP or other parties so we already know the worse case vote transferance for that constituency. i.e. even without Lab or Tory the SNP were still >10,000 behind Labour.
Before Martin became Speaker Springburn had the second lowest SNP support in Scotland.
We also had, a few years back, an indication that the constituency was strongly anti-immigration like many Labour strongholds, i.e. the antithesis of SNP philosophy. A paradigm shift would be required to vote SNP.
So, all in all, there is very little chance, even with the apparent current Lab. implosion, of the SNP winning this seat.
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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3180
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| Posted: Fri May 22, 2009 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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| chicmac wrote: |
So, all in all, there is very little chance, even with the apparent current Lab. implosion, of the SNP winning this seat. |
Unless the Labour Party foolishly choose Martin's son as their candidate.....
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Lord Pitsligo
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 14 Aug 2007
Posts: 709
Location: Perthshire
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| Posted: Fri May 22, 2009 9:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Reluctant Hero wrote: | | chicmac wrote: |
So, all in all, there is very little chance, even with the apparent current Lab. implosion, of the SNP winning this seat. |
Unless the Labour Party foolishly choose Martin's son as their candidate..... |
That could be fun. Martin could have his own little Portillo moment 
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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3180
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magister ludi
Gaining a Reputation
Joined: 13 Dec 2008
Posts: 225
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| Posted: Sun May 24, 2009 11:01 pm Post subject: |
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he'll be used to the traveling then.
perhaps he'll not need a second house. |
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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
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Holebender
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 04 Apr 2007
Posts: 2752
Location: Here or There
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| Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 1:38 am Post subject: |
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Just what does it take to turn Weegies off Labour? I really despair of that benighted corner of our country at times.
Mind you, isn't "Scottish Opinion" one of those discredited polling companies which is not a member of the same professional group as the likes of Mori and ICM?
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Zed
No Longer a Wean
Joined: 07 Jan 2009
Posts: 75
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| Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 7:36 am Post subject: |
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I love the way the Times just gives a one liner in the article to the fact that 41% are undecided !
The poll should look like this :-
Undecided - 41.0%
Labour - 30.0%
SNP - 19.5%
Tory - 3.5%
Lib Dem - 1.8%
So the article is rather misleading and shows it's all to play for. 
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Lord Pitsligo
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 14 Aug 2007
Posts: 709
Location: Perthshire
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| Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:32 am Post subject: |
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| Zed wrote: | I love the way the Times just gives a one liner in the article to the fact that 41% are undecided !
The poll should look like this :-
Undecided - 41.0%
Labour - 30.0%
SNP - 19.5%
Tory - 3.5%
Lib Dem - 1.8%
So the article is rather misleading and shows it's all to play for. |
So technically speaking, the undecided have a lead of 11%
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Holebender
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 04 Apr 2007
Posts: 2752
Location: Here or There
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| Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 8:58 am Post subject: |
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| Lord Pitsligo wrote: | | Zed wrote: | I love the way the Times just gives a one liner in the article to the fact that 41% are undecided !
The poll should look like this :-
Undecided - 41.0%
Labour - 30.0%
SNP - 19.5%
Tory - 3.5%
Lib Dem - 1.8%
So the article is rather misleading and shows it's all to play for. |
So technically speaking, the undecided have a lead of 11% |
I'm not sure... I can't make up my mind about that. 
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