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Cruachan
Helping with the Count
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 296
Location: The English Midlands
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 Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:30 pm Post subject: Latest Glasgow East Poll |
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From politicalbetting.com
| Quote: | ICM - Labour 14% ahead in Glasgow East
July 12th, 2008
BBC Newsnight
Will the poll ease the jitters at Number 10?
Telegraph reporting - “The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent. Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.”
We need to see the details of the poll, of course, but this margin looks emphatic and suggests that Labour will hold the seat. My money is now on them winning.
The dangers for Labour now are that the poll could encourage tactical switching from the Tories and Lib Dems and that the party might find it hard to get its voters out on the day.
Glasgow East betting.
Mike Smithson |
Given expected low turnout by Labour voters, does this give enough momentum for John Mason to win? What is the mood on the streets/in the bars?
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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3168
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| Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 10:25 pm Post subject: |
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Can't talk for anyone who lives in Glasgow East, but my own feeling is that it is just a step too far for the SNP to win this one.
They will have to break down the whole "My grandfather voted Labour....." attitude and that will not be easy.
I think it will be a close contest but Labour will probably come through by 5 - 10%.
On a separate note, I think the Sunday Herald poll has been hi-jacked!! According to the poll 75% want the Tories to win Glasgow East 
For what it is worth, I voted Other to join the other 0.3%.
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William_Cleland
I need ma own bl**dy forum!
Joined: 22 Apr 2007
Posts: 1168
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| Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 9:50 am Post subject: |
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| Worth noting that attitude was broken down in Hamilton and Govan at by-elections in the past. I suspect these messages are probably a case of managing expectations, however. |
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RWD
Finding Ma' Way
Joined: 23 Jul 2008
Posts: 7
Location: Maybole
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| Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: |
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I was watching th Politics Now show last night on ITV. I am not SNP voter, but after watching Curran, I want to see the SNP win, I think if they had another 2 weeks they could do it.
Both Curran's are a poultice would be a shame if she wins it.
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chicmac
Standing in a Council Ward
Joined: 18 Mar 2008
Posts: 448
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| Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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| RWD wrote: | I was watching th Politics Now show last night on ITV. I am not SNP voter, but after watching Curran, I want to see the SNP win, I think if they had another 2 weeks they could do it.
Both Curran's are a poultice would be a shame if she wins it. |
Certainly the polls show that a large majority in Scotland want the SNP to win.
However, in Glasgow East the Labour vote is IMO entrenched in the same way as the loyalty of an abused spouse is when their self-esteem is so low that they are able to see an alternative.
As someone said, it would require Labour activists to go out with lugers and cull every second voter to put a Labour win at risk. Even then, the half left standing might still vote Labour.
However, campaigning there yesterday I got the impression that many Labour voters have gone through, what for them is a catharsis, with the realisation that Labour, as they knew it, is no more.
Definitely got the impression that those converts were for keeps and not a protest vote. |
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chicmac
Standing in a Council Ward
Joined: 18 Mar 2008
Posts: 448
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| Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 10:45 pm Post subject: |
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| chicmac wrote: | | RWD wrote: | I was watching th Politics Now show last night on ITV. I am not SNP voter, but after watching Curran, I want to see the SNP win, I think if they had another 2 weeks they could do it.
Both Curran's are a poultice would be a shame if she wins it. |
Certainly the polls show that a large majority in Scotland want the SNP to win.
However, in Glasgow East the Labour vote is IMO entrenched in the same way as the loyalty of an abused spouse is when their self-esteem is so low that they are able to see an alternative.
As someone said, it would require Labour activists to go out with lugers and cull every second voter to put a Labour win at risk. Even then, the half left standing might still vote Labour.
However, campaigning there yesterday I got the impression that many Labour voters have gone through, what for them is a catharsis, with the realisation that Labour, as they knew it, is no more.
Definitely got the impression that those converts were for keeps and not a protest vote. |
that should be "is so low that they are unable to see an alternative." which I could have sworn is what I wrote. |
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gm
Finding Ma' Way
Joined: 19 Jul 2008
Posts: 12
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject: |
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i know who is not gonna win. i've just left the parkheed forge at 1-10pm today and their is a mocket shower of solidarity memebers hanging about outside the forge.
i spent a moment listening to their patter and refuse their leaflets.
there was one particulary badly dressed chap with a pony tail and dirty trousers full of his own self importance telling someone on the phone to take thei break now.
'break' from what i wondered.
self appounted impotance syndrome. |
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hatefilledsocialist
On A Journey (500 Miles)
Joined: 19 Jul 2008
Posts: 23
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: |
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| gm wrote: | i know who is not gonna win. i've just left the parkheed forge at 1-10pm today and their is a mocket shower of solidarity memebers hanging about outside the forge.
i spent a moment listening to their patter and refuse their leaflets.
there was one particulary badly dressed chap with a pony tail and dirty trousers full of his own self importance telling someone on the phone to take thei break now.
'break' from what i wondered.
self appounted impotance syndrome. |
i saw them as well. quite fuunt seeing the solidarity flags and the ssp flags competing for such small amounts of attention outside the bingo. i actually thought the solidarity guys outside the forge were out on a daytrip from the caravan people in back causeway.  |
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Holebender
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 04 Apr 2007
Posts: 2679
Location: Here or There
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 2:30 pm Post subject: |
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An internet troll is a sad creature. An internet troll who answers his own posts as a different person has got to be the saddest of an extremely sad bunch.
Why don't you get out in the fresh air and write down a few train registrations?
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Aventinian
1 Strike
Joined: 10 Dec 2005
Posts: 5541
Location: Oh, I get about a bit.
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 2:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Reluctant Hero wrote: | | On a separate note, I think the Sunday Herald poll has been hi-jacked!! According to the poll 75% want the Tories to win Glasgow East |
Don't underestimate the Cameron Effect!  |
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Lord Pitsligo
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 14 Aug 2007
Posts: 709
Location: Perthshire
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 6:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Aventinian wrote: | | Don't underestimate the Cameron Effect! |
Is that possible? Its like saying "Don't underestimate the gravitational attraction of a hydrogen atom"
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RWD
Finding Ma' Way
Joined: 23 Jul 2008
Posts: 7
Location: Maybole
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:22 pm Post subject: |
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I vote tory, but if they win in glasgow, I will wear the same socks for a month and then eat them fried.
Aint gonna happen even with the cameron effect. its a 2 horse race, and I think Labour sadly will come out the winner.
Any idea when the results are expected. think I may sit up and watch it, I wont be able to sleep worrying about eating my own socks lol
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Alasdair
Our Scotland = 2nd Job!
Joined: 01 May 2008
Posts: 1007
Location: Clydesdale
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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3168
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:14 pm Post subject: |
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The BBC are saying that they expect the result around 12.30. There are no electronic counting machines to deal with this time, so it shouldn't be much later than that.
The BBC hinting it is extremely close with the SNP maybe just edging it. Personally, I would be amazed if that was the result, but stranger things have happened!
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Red Justice
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 17 Jan 2008
Posts: 758
Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Reluctant Hero wrote: | The BBC are saying that they expect the result around 12.30. There are no electronic counting machines to deal with this time, so it shouldn't be much later than that.
The BBC hinting it is extremely close with the SNP maybe just edging it. Personally, I would be amazed if that was the result, but stranger things have happened! |
Anything is possible, when I was in Glasgow East today signs of Labour apathy. While SNP working hard knocking on doors to get their vote out.
SNP expecting to do well in areas of constituency where turn out was higher at polling stations. Should be an interesting result.
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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3168
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:45 pm Post subject: |
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The guy from the Times, Angus MacLeod seems to be thinking along the same lines RJ. He is expecting SNP to take it.
BBC are saying turnout is 42% which is remarkable all things considered.
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Red Justice
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 17 Jan 2008
Posts: 758
Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:48 pm Post subject: |
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SNP certainly well organised during this election RH, if Labour think they can take their traditional vote for granted tonight's result will haunt them and Gordon Brown.
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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3168
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:52 pm Post subject: |
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I am gutted!! I have to go and pick some relations up from the airport just now, so I will probably miss the result when it comes in - unless there is a re-count!!!!
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RWD
Finding Ma' Way
Joined: 23 Jul 2008
Posts: 7
Location: Maybole
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:55 pm Post subject: |
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My prediction
1- Labour (Just and no more, hope I am wrong)
2- SNP (Hope I am wrong here as well lol)
3- Conservative
4- LibDems
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Red Justice
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 17 Jan 2008
Posts: 758
Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife
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| Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 11:01 pm Post subject: |
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if the result went down to 200 votes between Labour and SNP that would certainly force a recount.
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“For socialists, independence is not about the colour or type of flag flying on our public buildings. It is about creating a better society. It is about putting people before profit"
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