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Posted: Sat Jul 12, 2008 8:30 pm Post subject: Latest Glasgow East Poll
From politicalbetting.com
Quote:
ICM - Labour 14% ahead in Glasgow East
July 12th, 2008
BBC Newsnight
Will the poll ease the jitters at Number 10?
Telegraph reporting - “The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent. Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.”
We need to see the details of the poll, of course, but this margin looks emphatic and suggests that Labour will hold the seat. My money is now on them winning.
The dangers for Labour now are that the poll could encourage tactical switching from the Tories and Lib Dems and that the party might find it hard to get its voters out on the day.
Glasgow East betting.
Mike Smithson
Given expected low turnout by Labour voters, does this give enough momentum for John Mason to win? What is the mood on the streets/in the bars? _________________ IT'S TIME.
http://loosechange-cruachan.blogspot.com/
Worth noting that attitude was broken down in Hamilton and Govan at by-elections in the past. I suspect these messages are probably a case of managing expectations, however.
I was watching th Politics Now show last night on ITV. I am not SNP voter, but after watching Curran, I want to see the SNP win, I think if they had another 2 weeks they could do it.
I was watching th Politics Now show last night on ITV. I am not SNP voter, but after watching Curran, I want to see the SNP win, I think if they had another 2 weeks they could do it.
Both Curran's are a poultice would be a shame if she wins it.
Certainly the polls show that a large majority in Scotland want the SNP to win.
However, in Glasgow East the Labour vote is IMO entrenched in the same way as the loyalty of an abused spouse is when their self-esteem is so low that they are able to see an alternative.
As someone said, it would require Labour activists to go out with lugers and cull every second voter to put a Labour win at risk. Even then, the half left standing might still vote Labour.
However, campaigning there yesterday I got the impression that many Labour voters have gone through, what for them is a catharsis, with the realisation that Labour, as they knew it, is no more.
Definitely got the impression that those converts were for keeps and not a protest vote.
I was watching th Politics Now show last night on ITV. I am not SNP voter, but after watching Curran, I want to see the SNP win, I think if they had another 2 weeks they could do it.
Both Curran's are a poultice would be a shame if she wins it.
Certainly the polls show that a large majority in Scotland want the SNP to win.
However, in Glasgow East the Labour vote is IMO entrenched in the same way as the loyalty of an abused spouse is when their self-esteem is so low that they are able to see an alternative.
As someone said, it would require Labour activists to go out with lugers and cull every second voter to put a Labour win at risk. Even then, the half left standing might still vote Labour.
However, campaigning there yesterday I got the impression that many Labour voters have gone through, what for them is a catharsis, with the realisation that Labour, as they knew it, is no more.
Definitely got the impression that those converts were for keeps and not a protest vote.
that should be "is so low that they are unable to see an alternative." which I could have sworn is what I wrote.
i know who is not gonna win. i've just left the parkheed forge at 1-10pm today and their is a mocket shower of solidarity memebers hanging about outside the forge.
i spent a moment listening to their patter and refuse their leaflets.
there was one particulary badly dressed chap with a pony tail and dirty trousers full of his own self importance telling someone on the phone to take thei break now.
i know who is not gonna win. i've just left the parkheed forge at 1-10pm today and their is a mocket shower of solidarity memebers hanging about outside the forge.
i spent a moment listening to their patter and refuse their leaflets.
there was one particulary badly dressed chap with a pony tail and dirty trousers full of his own self importance telling someone on the phone to take thei break now.
'break' from what i wondered.
self appounted impotance syndrome.
i saw them as well. quite fuunt seeing the solidarity flags and the ssp flags competing for such small amounts of attention outside the bingo. i actually thought the solidarity guys outside the forge were out on a daytrip from the caravan people in back causeway.
An internet troll is a sad creature. An internet troll who answers his own posts as a different person has got to be the saddest of an extremely sad bunch.
Why don't you get out in the fresh air and write down a few train registrations? _________________ "My instinct is to agree with your opinion of his verse, but I've never so much as glanced at it." - agentmancuso
Is that possible? Its like saying "Don't underestimate the gravitational attraction of a hydrogen atom" _________________ Caledonia's been everything I've ever had...
I vote tory, but if they win in glasgow, I will wear the same socks for a month and then eat them fried.
Aint gonna happen even with the cameron effect. its a 2 horse race, and I think Labour sadly will come out the winner.
Any idea when the results are expected. think I may sit up and watch it, I wont be able to sleep worrying about eating my own socks lol _________________ http://www.thescottishforums.com
RWD, I don't think the radio coverage starts until about 12.30am ... that might give you an indication of when the results come in. _________________ My arts and crafts site - http://madestuff.co.uk
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Reluctant Hero Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005 Posts: 3289
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:14 pm Post subject:
The BBC are saying that they expect the result around 12.30. There are no electronic counting machines to deal with this time, so it shouldn't be much later than that.
The BBC hinting it is extremely close with the SNP maybe just edging it. Personally, I would be amazed if that was the result, but stranger things have happened! _________________ Visit the Our Scotland Blog at http://our-scotland.blogspot.com/
The BBC are saying that they expect the result around 12.30. There are no electronic counting machines to deal with this time, so it shouldn't be much later than that.
The BBC hinting it is extremely close with the SNP maybe just edging it. Personally, I would be amazed if that was the result, but stranger things have happened!
Anything is possible, when I was in Glasgow East today signs of Labour apathy. While SNP working hard knocking on doors to get their vote out.
SNP expecting to do well in areas of constituency where turn out was higher at polling stations. Should be an interesting result. _________________ The legacy of a New Labour Government that had presided over two illegal wars, the largest ever gap between rich and poor, and fascists elected to the European Parliament.
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Reluctant Hero Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005 Posts: 3289
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:45 pm Post subject:
The guy from the Times, Angus MacLeod seems to be thinking along the same lines RJ. He is expecting SNP to take it.
BBC are saying turnout is 42% which is remarkable all things considered. _________________ Visit the Our Scotland Blog at http://our-scotland.blogspot.com/
SNP certainly well organised during this election RH, if Labour think they can take their traditional vote for granted tonight's result will haunt them and Gordon Brown. _________________ The legacy of a New Labour Government that had presided over two illegal wars, the largest ever gap between rich and poor, and fascists elected to the European Parliament.
http://scottishsocfree.blogspot.com http://dawnofliberation.blogspot.com
Reluctant Hero Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005 Posts: 3289
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:52 pm Post subject:
I am gutted!! I have to go and pick some relations up from the airport just now, so I will probably miss the result when it comes in - unless there is a re-count!!!! _________________ Visit the Our Scotland Blog at http://our-scotland.blogspot.com/
1- Labour (Just and no more, hope I am wrong)
2- SNP (Hope I am wrong here as well lol)
3- Conservative
4- LibDems _________________ http://www.thescottishforums.com
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