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azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3797

see - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4999672.stm

Montenegro heads divided into vote

The BBC's Nick Hawton has been travelling around Montenegro assessing the mood of the people as they prepare to vote on what could be the final act in the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia.

This is a land of contrasts - from the beautiful coast with its natural harbours and wealthy tourists to its rugged mountains and impoverished inhabitants.

And wherever you go these days you will find a people divided - those who are desperate to see an independent Montenegro and those who want to see the continuing union between Serbia and Montenegro.

In the coastal town of Budva, the red and gold flags emblazoned with the crest of the Montenegrin Royal family - the symbol of the independence movement - are everywhere to be seen.

"We want independence. We want to have our own country. We want peace with our neighbours, like Serbia and Croatia, but we must have our own country. And this way our economy will improve," says Dragana, 45, from Budva who owns a local shop.

At the beach fish restaurant, Marjan Simoni is preparing lunch for a group of American tourists.

"Business has been getting better over the past few years. We have three restaurants. There are more and more foreign tourists coming here. Personally, I think we should have our own country and so we can look after our own affairs. We should be in charge of our own destiny. Independence will only improve business," says Marjan.

Bribe rumours

Drive inland and pro-independence graffiti and billboards with the word "DA!" (meaning "Yes" for independence) line the route. Again, there are more red and gold flags.

But up in the steep, wooded mountains, heading closer to the border with Serbia, views begin to change.

The town of Kolasin is deeply divided over the issue. There has been tension between the two sides. Those against independence took down their own Serb flags so as to avoid clashes with neighbours across the street who had put up red flags.

"It will be very bad if Montenegro becomes independent," says 26-year-old Mileta Ilic, who is unemployed. "Serbia will simply turn off the financial tap and Montenegro will have to try to get international loans and credit," says Mileta, wearing his blue-and-white "NO" tee shirt.

Across Montenegro, rumours abound that both sides in the referendum have been offering bribes to their potential supporters.

Frustrated majority?

And even the transport system has become divided. Free railway tickets are being offered in Serbia for Montenegrins to return home to vote against independence. Meanwhile dozens of extra aircraft have been flying in Montenegrins living abroad, at no expense, so they can vote for independence.

Indeed, the result of the referendum may be very close and it could be the diaspora that ultimately decides the republic's fate. Montenegro has agreed with the European Union that for independence to be won they must achieve at least 55% of votes cast.

The big question is what happens if they achieve more than 50% but less than the required 55%. That could lead to a lot of frustrated people.

But so far the campaign has been relatively peaceful and its organisers are hoping it will stay that way.

In the capital, Podgorica, the two camps held large rallies to bring their campaigns to a close during the final week. Thousands turned out in the central square on separate nights, waving their flags and banners, in support of their cause.

And now everyone awaits Sunday's vote.

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azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3797

see - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4994212.stm

Q&A: Montenegro referendum

Montenegrins will decide in a vote on Sunday whether their small coastal republic should remain part of the state union of Serbia and Montenegro or become fully independent.

What is at stake?

The union of Serbia and Montenegro is now all that remains of the federation of six republics that made up Yugoslavia before the independence wars of the 1990s.

In terms of both population and area, Montenegro is very much overshadowed by Serbia, and many Montenegrins - including Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic - would like their republic to make the final break and go it alone.

The pro-independence camp insists that Montenegro is being held back by its association with Serbia.

Those in favour of preserving the union point to the strong historical links between Montenegrins and Serbs - who share the same language and Orthodox Christian faith - and economic ties between the two republics.

How do things stand at the moment?

The union of Serbia-Montenegro was formed in March 2002 as the successor state to Yugoslavia under the EU-brokered Belgrade Agreement.

According to the 2003 census, the population of Montenegro is 670,000, of whom 43% are Montenegrins, 32% Serbs, 14% Muslim Slav, 7% Albanians, 1% Croats and 1% Roma. The population of Serbia is nearly 10 million.

Despite the close historic ties between the two republics, Montenegro already enjoys a high level of autonomy and uses the euro as currency instead of the Serbian dinar.

Who is in favour of independence?

Broadly speaking, most ethnic Montenegrins and the Montenegrin government back the drive to independence. The ethnic minorities are seen as mostly favouring independence, though some have expressed doubts over their status in an independent Montenegro.

During the early 1990s, the present prime minister, Milo Djukanovic, was a key ally of Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic and favoured the preservation of some form of federal state.

But as Mr Milosevic's policies attracted ever greater international condemnation, Mr Djukanovic gradually distanced himself from his former mentor and came to see Montenegrin independence as his ultimate goal.

Who is opposed to it?

Those against independence tend to identify themselves as ethnically Serb and see no real distinction between Serbs and Montenegrins.

Many are strong supporters of the Orthodox faith and see the historical and religious ties between Serbs and Montenegrins as being stronger than any divisions. They point out that the greatest Montenegrin historical figures often described themselves as Serbs.

The pro-union Montenegrin opposition regularly accuses Mr Djukanovic of seeking to set up his own "private state".

What is Serbia's position?

Serbia sees the Montenegrin independence drive as a stab in the back and believes that dissolution of the union will fuel Kosovo Albanian demands for independent statehood.

What line is the Orthodox Church taking?

The official Montenegrin Orthodox Church is part of the Serbian Orthodox Church and is against independence.

An independent Montenegrin Orthodox Church was set up in 2000 with the backing of Mr Djukanovic. This supports independence but is regarded as a renegade body by the Orthodox Church globally.

What form will the referendum take?

On 21 May, a single question will be put to voters: "Do you want the Republic of Montenegro to be an independent state with full international and legal subjectivity?"

A 55% majority is required for a "yes" vote to be accepted internationally. This figure was proposed by the EU after the two sides failed to reach agreement on what the threshold should be.

But the pro-independence camp insists that if less than 55% but more than 50% vote for independence - that is, if the figure falls within what is being referred to as the "grey zone" - then this will be seen as a mandate to continue the drive for a separate state.

The Montenegrin diaspora has the right to vote - with the exception of Montenegrins living in Serbia, who are barred from voting in the referendum.

What is the likely outcome?

Opinion polls in March indicated that, based on a estimated voter turnout of about 84%, the pro-independence camp had a lead of about 5% over the unionist camp.

However, a significant percentage of voters - mainly those belonging to the ethnic minorities - were still undecided at the time of these polls, so the result is by no means a foregone conclusion.

What about the Mladic factor?

The EU's suspension of talks on closer ties with Serbia on account of the Belgrade government's failure to arrest top war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic is seen by some analysts as having given a boost to the pro-independence campaign.

Mr Djukanovic has long maintained that an independent Montenegro stands a better chance of achieving EU membership than one linked to Serbia, and the EU's suspension of talks with Serbia is seen in some quarters as vindication of this argument.

Other commentators, however, argue that most voters will already have made up their minds according to their ethnic identity, and that the Mladic factor will only count with waverers.
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"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

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azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3797

Sunday could be a decisive day not just for Montenegro, but for all small nations seeking Independence within the EU.

Like Montenegro, the opinion of those in Scotland looks divided down the middle. If the referendum does reach the required 55% then it is a good omen for Scotland as it suggest those undecided favoured Independence, or that those in favour of it turned out in higher numbers to vote than those who want to keep the status quo.

Above 55% is good news for the Scottish Nationalists as it sets a trend within the EU for positive Independence referendum results. Above 60% would be an excellent result. It'll be very interesting to see what happens if the pro-Independence vote falls between 50-55% however.
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SLG · Posted: Sat May 20, 2006 11:12 pm Post subject:

They say it's tight, but no polls? I'm not sure it tells will tell us too much about our referendum.

IMO the 55% mark is crazy. If there is >50% but <55% I'd expect there to be trouble.

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3797

.......maybe I'm just a wishful thinker. Smile

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"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

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Aventinian · Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 12:13 am Post subject:

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3797

I agree Aventinian - it may be sensible to have a review referendum after 5 years to see whether or not it is the 'settled will' of the Scottish people as you say.
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"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

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SLG · Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 12:31 am Post subject:

IF Convenor · Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 11:20 am Post subject:

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3797

Maybe it should depend on how close the vote is.

If the yes vote is above 59%, then a review will not be needed. If it is between 51-59% however then a review might be sensible 5 years down the line.

I only say this however because I'm 100% sure it would go in an Independent Scotland's favour. Razz

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"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

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SLG · Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 11:29 am Post subject:

I think the idea would be to have a series of referenda with nothing decided until the results from all referenda had been collated. So even if the first referenda is a yes, nothing happens, only after a set period of time over which a number of referenda have been carried out could we claim the settled will. Interesting in theory, and I'd be in favour of it in theory. It's not going to happen though, and in practice, I wouldn't want it to. Mainly because I have no trust in the Unionist parties whatsoever when it comes to this. Labour have already discredited themselves beyond repair following the '79 referendum.

SLG · Posted: Sun May 21, 2006 11:39 am Post subject:

Shadowman · No Longer a Wean Joined: 02 Jan 2006 Posts: 94

Why not just say that a result between 50% and 60% will result in greater autonomy, and anything over 60% full independence? A state that is nearly 300 years old should not be dissolved on the back of 50.3/49.7 vote (that recorded for the Welsh Assembly).

Cado · I Love 'Our Scotland' Joined: 14 May 2006 Posts: 283

I think the referendum needs to be carefully considered.

Firstly for the SNP - the SNP has always be for independence, its been their founding aim. When there is a referendum on independence - and if it fails- it may do the SNP incredible damage. The SNP need to work out how to ensure that a failure doesn't damage the party in anyway. The SNP are unique is being the only party with purly scottish concerns - they can't let themselves be damaged by a 'no' vote.

Secondly - people voting intentions. This is always the sticky one. To my knowledge (I know there are figures quoted above) Ive never really seen pro independence figure of much more than 20% (I'd be grateful if anyone can provide links or sources to figures much more than this). However, there are very few 'pure' unionists in Scotland - I suspect that no matter how atrocious the present scottish government is - very few will vote for abolision and a return to full union.

Thus I conclude that the overwhelming majority are at least for 'self-determination' a possible definition of this being "we should be allowed to get on with things and do what we want - everything that does or does not happen within Scotland is the responsibility of the Scot government"

What I'm trying to get at here is that it may be best to provide a number of options in a referendum. ie
1) no change
2) a 'self-determination' package
3) full independence

I suspect those who are for full independence may not like this idea - simply because it presents a 'half-way' house which people who may have been pro 'full-independence' may decide to opt for. However it also avoids the potential embarrisment of people feeling forced to vote 'no-change' simply because they don't want full independence.

But I beleive my suggestion removes certain risks.

1) If people vote 'no change' because there isn't a middle option it may stop the whole band wagon stone dead - it may also damage the SNP - it would effectivly be a rejection of their core principals.
Therefore a 'self-determination' vote would still be a 'progressive' vote. Even though it isn't full independence it would still be seen as a vote for further change and a re-affirming of Scotlands right to be a nation. It would also avoid (I beleive) avoid damaging the SNP.
2) A self-determination vote wouldn't kill off full independence - though it may take some of the steam out of it. It would still keep the option of full independence alive and well. A 'no change' vote would kill everything off for a considerable period of time (I think).

We want to keep things moving forward - so any result which stops things is undesirable. If the settled will of the scottish people ends up being 'no-change' then forget it - we won't be seeing another referendum for a long time. There is also no point in fielding a referendum that could loose, like I said, it could be very damaging to the whole movement.

A middle ground which moves things forward but which is also guaranteed to win is (to me) the preferred option. We have devolution in its current form - we naturally want to be abe to do more - so devolution as it stands has acted as a spring board to wanting further independance. Any lost referendum kills the momentum - also any referendum too far - risks derailing things.

Anyway - rambling.

Simply put - there needs to be a middle option (in my opinion) - something progressive that would be (at least) a winner without potentially giving people cold feet my only allowing full independence.

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3797

see http://www.independence1st.com/polls.shtml for a large sample of polls held.

There have also been 2 or 3 in the last year which show the same conclusion (support for Independence higher than that of opposed). A recent poll which asked whether there should be a referendum on the issue got over 80% saying 'yes' also - the Scottish people see that it's obvious, so why are the government not doing anything about it?
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"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

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azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3797

There was also a YouGov poll of 1607 Scots in April of this year which showed 46% of those in favour of Independence, 39% opposed and 15% 'don't knows' - another clear majority for Independence.
_________________
"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

Possibly the funniest site in the world, 'The Daily Mash' - http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/

SLG · Posted: Mon May 22, 2006 11:30 am Post subject:

Cado · I Love 'Our Scotland' Joined: 14 May 2006 Posts: 283

Cheers for the poll data - it certainly prooves there is substancial interest - which at least helps show that Scots in general are feeling 'politically' interested.

I'd though about the poll split thing - my thought were that of 'incremental options ie.

1) Do you wish no change
2) Do you wish 'self-determination'
3) As well as Self determination do you wish to go further to full independence.

Thus it would give an ability to 'grade' opinion - those pro full independence could still be considered to be pro 'self-determination' ie

if it polled (totally made up figures just to illustrate)

1 No change 34%
2 Something 33%
3 indpendence 33%

In normal circumstances 'no change' would win - which would be unfair as clearly 66% want at least somthing.

SLG · Posted: Tue May 23, 2006 10:05 am Post subject:

I think if we get Labour out of power in Holyrood, we'll be getting more powers for the Parliament. As you show, pretty much the entire parliament apart from the Labour members are in favour of more powers. I still don't see the need for any referendum on that. Mibee after a non-Labour Executive has been in power and we have reached some sort of settled level of government, we might need a referendum to push for specific powers. But I think we would be better off just seeing what happened in that regard.

I don't think there would be too much fall for the SNP if the referendum was lost. I think even in the worse case, it would be marginal, and might actually turn a lot of folk on to Independence that weren't previously political. Folk voting agin wouldn't be SNP voters anyway. The other parties would spin it as defeat for the SNP, but they could spin it as an opportunity for them to get on (presuming they form part of the Executive) with running the country to the best of their ability, calling for more powers within the devolution framework and building more confidence in their ability to run the country before asking the people again at some point in the future whether it is still the settled will to remain part of the UK, or whether Scotland should be Independent.

IF Convenor · Posted: Tue May 23, 2006 1:28 pm Post subject:

Labour managed to organise the devolution referendum within 5 months of taking office in 1997. I see no reason (other than politics) for delaying an independence referendum for as long as a year once a decision is taken.
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