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SLG · Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:31 pm Post subject: Population rising

Immigrants help Scotland put the brakes on population slide

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=2119102005

JANE BRADLEY

FEARS that Scotland's population will fall below the critical five million mark have eased after new figures revealed it will take 20 years longer than expected.

But experts today warned there was no room for complacency and that action was needed to stave off a decline in the number of working age people in the future.

An increase in the number of people moving to Scotland, combined with more births and fewer deaths has put back the date Scotland's population will fall to five million.

The falling population north of the Border has raised fears about how the country will cope with a declining workforce. But new figures from the General Register Office Scotland (GRO) show the critical number will not be reached until 2036 - almost 20 years later than expected.

In research which bucks the downward trend, the population is actually set to rise over the next 15 years, peaking at just over 5.1 million in 2019. It is then expected to slowly drop, reaching just 4.86m by 2044. Registrar General Duncan Macniven said: "Scotland's population is projected to rise over the next 15 years - thanks to more births, fewer deaths and more people coming to Scotland than leaving."

But he warned a higher proportion of the population than ever before would be aged 75 and over. He said: "We will still be an ageing nation, because our birth rate has declined since the 1980s. And our population is likely to fall from 2020, while the rest of the UK is on a rising trend."

The number of pensioners is set to rise by 35 per cent from 0.97 million in 2004 to 1.31m in 2031, with 650,000 of those aged 75 or above. The number of children aged under 16 is likely to drop by 15 per cent, from 940,000 to 790,000 in 2031.

Around 17,000 extra people are expected to migrate to Scotland between 2006 and 2008 - with a steady rise of around 1000 a year between 2008 and 2031.

First Minister Jack McConnell welcomed the new figures, but warned Scotland's population still faced a tough challenge.

He said: "Today's forecasts are significant. The figures dispel, once and for all, the notion that there is a brain drain from Scotland, that Scotland is haemorrhaging its brightest and best.

"This is good news. But we must not allow ourselves to be complacent in the long term interests of our country. We still face a demographic challenge that means there are fewer working age people and therefore fewer people to grow the economy and run our public services."

Mr McConnell, who last year introduced the Fresh Talent initiative to attract skilled workers into Scotland, added: "At a time when our employment rate is at an all-time high, is better than anywhere in the UK and one of the best in Europe, we must stretch towards full employment.

"We will reach out to those currently economically inactive and get them back to work. And at the same time, we will attract Fresh Talent to Scotland, to fill skills gaps and to contribute to the dynamism and vibrancy of our local communities.

"But above all, today's projected increases in our population proves that Scotland is on the way back up, is an attractive place to live and work - and more people are choosing to make their home here and contribute to our economy."

Murdo Fraser, enterprise spokesman for the Scottish Tories, said: "Although in the short term, the population figures are better, there is still a long term decline. This is out of kilter with the rest of the UK, where the trend is of an increase in population. All the evidence shows the major factor in determining population shift is economic strength.

"If we are serious about tackling this problem of population decline, we have got to tackle our economic under performance."

Unlike Scotland, the populations of the other three UK countries are set to rise to 2031, and will continue to rise, except in Northern Ireland, where the population will decline from a peak in 2033.

In the rest of Europe, Italy, Germany and seven of the new accession states to the EU all have projected population declines worse than Scotland.

parkhead_rfb · Getting on a bit! Joined: 13 Oct 2005 Posts: 1974

get shaggin people Laughing

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carol · Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:54 pm Post subject:

I think 6 kids is sufficient!!

Carol

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3776

well seein' as if i've none - i'll need to get on it!

Very Happy

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