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SLG · Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:23 pm Post subject: Salmond opens talks with Greens

http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/53716.html

Rinty · Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2006 7:48 pm Post subject: i

It's a very interseting development, although the differences are such that I cannot see a formal coalition.

Salmond and Fox both know where the SSP and SNP meet and where they disagree. The SSP agree with the SNP on all of the issues mentioned by the Herald that the SGP and SNP meet on. The differences between the Greens and SNP are also more or less the same divisions between the SSP and SNP.

We, of course, would not enter in to a formal coalition with anyone and have made that clear. We would, however, support a budget of a minority SNP govt or SNP/Green coalition to allow them to form an executive, and thereafter vote on an issue by issue basis. This is how I see the arrangement between the SNP and Greens eventually shaping up.

Interestingly the reports I got from the Greens Annual Conference was that there was a lot of talk about coalitions but it was the Lib Dems and Labour who were being looked at.

The Lib Dems would have to be brought into the SNPs coalition for it to work, in my opinion. For this to happen, the Lib Dems would have to concede more powers to Holyrood, which in principle they wouldn't object to. The SNP would potentially have to give up Independence in return for more fiscal powers for Holyrrod.

On the face of it most SNP members would be horrified at this, but in reality it would only happen if the SNP needed the Lib Dems to form an executive. If that was the scenario then the people of Scotland will not have made a clear statement at the ballot box for independence and the SNP should or could accept that and leave independence until they win a majority, or at least the combined votes/seats of the pro-independence parties are in the majority.

I do believe that the Greens get a pretty easy ride from the press though. They also seem exempt from actual analysis of their profile and results.

After the Cathcart and Livingston by elections we had the bizarre scene of Robin Harper contributing to a piece about the SSPs poor results at the by elections. Harper was lending weight to the argument that by election results showed the SSP to be finished. In fact, the SSP took more votes than the Greens over the 2 results and the results showed that support for the Greens had fallen further than the SSP.

The other very big factor that counters Shiona Bairds assertion that the Greens will do better in 2007 is the fact that the SSP look likely to not stand in the FPTP element of the 2007 elections.

There is no doubt (and SSP analysis of results bears this out) that the Greens vote was inflated by the fact that the SSP stood in every seat last time.

Many people who were torn between the two parties decided to vote SSP in the FPTP and Green with their list vote. Next time round it would only take a fraction of those votes to go to the SSP for the last results to be reversed. The other factor in this scenario is the lack of activists the Greens have. The SSP have a huge and growing membership in comparison. Last time round they were campaigning in 70 seats, next time they may be concentrating on the list.

An anecdotal example would be my own branch. We have a dozen or so members and a few supporters in local trades union branches. Last time round we campaigned in the FPTP seat until the last 3 days. Then we leafletted some schemes asking for the list vote. Next time round we would have all of our branch members working solely for that list vote.

The Greens membership in Ayrshire as a whole is similar to our wee branch, but we have 3 other branches in Ayrshire with around 50 active members outside of our branch, and considerable backing from local branches of several trades unions.

The asumption that the Greens will see a rise in their list vote and the SSP will fall as a pretty loose guess and I dont see it happening.

After 2007 Salmond might not see a coalition with the SGP as any way advantageous to the SNP.