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macnumpty · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 10:10 am Post subject: Scaling back ambition

Nicol Stephen appears to have done this: recently he was talking about becoming First Minister himself, but now he's got dragged into the row over whether the LibDems should support Jack McConnell's re-election as First Minister. This comes on thwe back of McConnell's gloriously barking prediction that Labour can get 55 or more seats, enough to ditch the LibDems and form a viable minority government, which he considers the preferred option to a three-party Coalition with the LibDems and the Greens. Stephen has made the schoolboy error of accepting the premise of McConnell's argument (that the LibDems are more likely to join a government than lead one), and so his earlier predictions are now wiped out.

Even if you leave that aside, this is a major own goal for Nicol Stephen, who has already painted himself into a corner by insisting that he would not go into an Executive that a) was led by McConnell and supported nuclear power, or b) was led by Alex Salmond and included a referendum on independence. By saying that he will actively vote against Jack McConnell's candidacy for the FM post, and all Labour nominations for ministerial positions if Jack goes it alone, Stephen is forced into either a U-turn on his new-found hostility to Labour (which will last until 4 May, one day after the Elections), or his position on independence. It also increases the likelihood that Labour will look to the Tories for support. While they reacted to this development by criticising the LibDems, they have not rejected the idea of supporting Labour. In fact, in the past, a number of key figures have advocated that as a means of preserving the Union.

And of course, this whole debate centres on 1) whether Labour will be in a position to form a viable minority government (unlikely); and 2) whether Labour could form a stable majority with either the LibDems from within the Executive or the Tories from outwith it (unlikely at the present time). The electorate can still turn any row on its head.

In other news, Davie Hutchison is reporting that the race to succeed McConnell as Labour leader has already begun, with backbenchers jumping on bandwagons to support prospective candidates Andy Kerr and Tom McCabe. If this is true, it seems that the only person who still believes that the First Minister can hang onto his job is the First Minister.

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^ ^ This is Bunny. Bunny wishes that he was on the electoral roll in Glasgow East, so he could vote for John Mason. He also reminds you to read the Our Scotland Blog.

SLG · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:34 pm Post subject: Re: Scaling back ambition

macnumpty · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 7:13 pm Post subject:

It shouldn't be that big an own goal - the LibDems can gain seats for sure, and will be in a strong position to get a lot of policy concessions from whoever leads an Executive. The problem is coupled with their last announcements, it is a climbdown: as soon as you declare yourself to be serious contenders for the top spot, you're going to have people scrutinising you. Since the 2005 result (which was a good performance for the Party), the Scottish LibDems have been hyping themselves up whenever possible... even when it backfired as it did in Moray. The major problem is that we haven't had a gradual scale-back of the target in public. We've gone from 'I can be FM' to 'We're dropping our "only work with the largest party rule" because we expect to be the largest party' and now to 'We will not support Labour in set of circumstances X'. That's a very quick climb-down and while it's a welcome dose of realism on the part of the LibDems, after his early bullishness, it makes Nicol Stephen look far weaker than he did a week ago.

BTW, I reckon that both Kerr and McCabe would be a disaster for Labour. The only person I can think of with anything approaching charisma is Margaret Curran (and that's more aggression than charisma), and even she wouldn't stop the rot.
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^ ^ This is Bunny. Bunny wishes that he was on the electoral roll in Glasgow East, so he could vote for John Mason. He also reminds you to read the Our Scotland Blog.

SLG · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 8:40 pm Post subject:

Fair point, they shouldn't have talked themselves up so much in the first place.

Re Labour leadership... no mention of Alexander?

macnumpty · Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 10:16 pm Post subject:

I think she's missed the boat. Her best shot was in 2001, but her retreat to the backbenches hasn't helped her. She's trying to regain her profile, but her ticket to the leadership is a major collapse for Labour, with other parties taking a number of high-profile scalps.

The one ray of light for her is that she is at least a well-known figure, and seeing as any future Leadership Election will probably be a full-on contest involving the whole Electoral College, she'll get a strong membership vote on the back of that. The MSPs might not support her though, and it's going to come down to TU support.
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^ ^ This is Bunny. Bunny wishes that he was on the electoral roll in Glasgow East, so he could vote for John Mason. He also reminds you to read the Our Scotland Blog.

SLG · Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:58 am Post subject:

I think it will be a real test of the intelligence of the Labour party members. If they elect Kerr or McCabe as leader, then they deserve to continue their downward route. I agree Curran could be an effective leader. I can't really see anyone outside her and Alexander who could make a decent job of it.