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Scott2006

The opinion poll shows 31% in favour of independence and 43% against, with 26% undecided.
If the undecided vote was set aside or assumed to cancel out with half going to the two options, then it gives 41% for independence and just under 59% against.
Can the SNP achieve a 9% improvement in those certain to vote in support of the independence option?

http://www.theherald.co.uk/politi...want_split_from_UK_poll_finds.php
DOUGLAS FRASER May 16, 2008

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Only third of Scots want split from UK, poll finds

A referendum on Scottish independence would have been lost by a wide margin if it had been taken over the past week, when controversy has been raging around the issue.

Less than one-third of Scottish voters, 31%, would support Scotland "becoming an independent state", according to a new opinion poll, while 43% would be against it.

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP deputy leader, took a positive message out of the remaining 26% who remain to be convinced, saying "there is all to play for" once the SNP set out their plans.

The poll, by Scottish Opinion on behalf of STV, gave a clearer thumbs-down to independence when it went on to ask how people might vote if they also had the option of devolution with extra powers going to Holyrood.

More than half of those in the sample of 1051 people, questioned between May 6 and 13, gave their first preference to the option of extra powers. The independence option only narrowly beat the status quo choice into second.

The first choice figures were 50.1% for extra powers, while independence secured 25.1% and no change was third placed with 24.8%. The questions were put to a sample of Scottish people at a time when the prospect of an independence referendum became front-page news and seemed likely to happen.

Labour was in turmoil over its strategy on calling such a vote, with Holyrood leader Wendy Alexander suddenly shifting to call for a snap referendum, but Prime Minister Gordon Brown refused to back her. It is less clear now whether Labour will let the SNP have the referendum the Scottish Government wants in 2010.

The findings were around the middle range of recent polls on independence, which have varied widely from only 19% for "a completely separate nation" to 41% for negotiating a settlement with the UK Government so Scotland becomes "an independent state" - the wording planned by the SNP.

Scottish Greens have called for the SNP's national conversation to be merged with the Unionists' commission on extra powers, under Sir Kenneth Calman, saying the public need more clarity.

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Scotland deserves a First rate Parliament for a First rate People
The Scottish Parliamentarians who voted for Treaty of Union in 1706 and signed away Independence had been voted for by less than 2% of the Scottish population

Holebender · Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 12:26 pm Post subject:

Opinion poll results can be manipulated very easily by the wording of the question.

If you ask the SNP's preferred question it seems you get a 50/50 split. The results are far too volatile to be of much use.
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"My instinct is to agree with your opinion of his verse, but I've never so much as glanced at it." - agentmancuso

agentmancuso · Posted: Fri May 16, 2008 3:55 pm Post subject:

chicmac · Nationalist Joined: 18 Mar 2008 Posts: 142

Dave Coull · Independentista Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 928

Agentmancuso wrote

"so what's new?"

Nothing much. Just another meaningless "opinion poll". These prove nothing. Only a referendum will prove anything.

"The poll merely confirms what everybody knows".

This poll doesn't actually "confirm" anything.

"support for separatism runs at between a quarter and a third of the population"

Actually, even though this particular poll appears a bit dodgy, it doesn't show that. On all previous evidence, the "don't knows", if they do end up voting, are unlikely to divide up any differently from those who did express a preference. The figures for those who did express an opinion add up to 74 percent. But to express the figures as a percentage of those likely to vote, you have to divide by 74 and multiply by 100. So according to this poll, the percentage of those expressing an opinion on how they would be likely to vote is just over 40 percent for independence. Okay, so that's a minority. But it's a lot more than "between a quarter and a third". My bet is that, when a referendum is actually called, the very act of calling it will itself increase support for independence, the cross-party and non-party referendum campaign will increase support for independence further, and, when the referendum is actually held, there will be a clear, significant majority for independence. And if you seriously believe it would just be "between a quarter and a third", then - BRING IT ON.

William_Cleland · This is Ma' Life! Joined: 22 Apr 2007 Posts: 743

OK, let's suppose Wendy had got her way and it actually was brought on and much to Wendy's chagrin Scotland proceeded to vote Yes to negotiations with Westminster on independence. How exactly does a minority government go about putting that into practice when the majority at Holyrood are opposed to independence and can oust them at the next confidence motion?
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Sair Elba!

Holebender · Posted: Sat May 17, 2008 11:36 am Post subject:

Now that's an interesting question.

I would hope that the politicians in Holyrood would respect the outcome of the ballot, i.e. the will of the electorate, and cooperate with the minority government to ensure that the will of the people is enacted. Any who choose to defy the result of the referendum will have to explain their stance to the electorate soon enough.
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"My instinct is to agree with your opinion of his verse, but I've never so much as glanced at it." - agentmancuso