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azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3771

Should SSP say 'Vote SNP'?...........

Rinty · Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2006 8:46 am Post subject: j

Hugh was the candidate for K&L last time round azzurri. He used to be Tommy Sheridans press person and was also Labour MEP for Harlow in Essex in the past.

This idea has been discussed for a few months now and it looks like the SSP might not stand in FPTP seats or perhaps just a handful.

The reason for this is that our research shows that if we done that last time around we would have a significant % of the Greens vote. Thousand of people gave us their FPTP vote and the Greens their "second vote". It is estimated that this move alone would have meant 10 MSPs for the SSP in 2003 and 4 for the Greens.

Another consideration is that the SSPs activists can then campaign for list votes only adding even further to the vote.

As for voting SNP I am certain this will not be an official party position but will be the choice of the majority of SSP voters. It depends of course on what the SNPs manifesto is and who the candidates are.

The Socialist Worker and other platforms within the SSP are unlikely to vote for the SNP. Socialists would be unlikely to support a candidate for a business friendly Scotland against someone who advocates a socialist Britain.

Of course there will be very few if any Labour candidates advocating a socilaist economy so that dilemna probably will not come up.

Personally I think this is a good idea and I am with Kevin Williamson on this one. One stumbling block may be the repeated hostility from the SNP towards the SSP.

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3771

Well lets just hope any sort of 'hostility' is sorted out between the parties before the 2007 elections. It would be stupid not to put their hostilities aside and tell their supporters to vote in a certain way - it would so obviously do the cause of both parties a lot of good.

I'd prefer the SNP did a deal with the SSP over the Greens. I feel the Greens will just go with whichever party wants them to be part of an executive, and not necessarily one which is pro-independence. However I feel as though a lot of those within the SSP will see the SNP as the 'least worst' and will be more inclined to work with them over Labour/Lib Dems/Tories.

I imagine my 2nd vote would've went to the SSP anyway, as probably a lot of pro-independence voters, but to put this in an official party line would no doubt increase the overall pro-independence MSPs in Holyrood.
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Aventinian · Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:35 pm Post subject:

When you're talking about deals between the SNP and SSP are you implying some kind of pact where the SSP will defer in the constituency seats in exchange for the SNP supporting their voters giving an SSP second vote or something?
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azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3771

I wouldn't say it would be just as formal as that.

I think the plan is that the SSP are to defer in most constituency seats anyway - therefore a logical plan for the two parties is for the SNP to come out and say that their voters should give their 2nd vote to the SSP and for the SSP to tell their supporters that their constituency vote be given to the SNP.

It is logical enough. I can't see any other parties working together in this way unless it's with the Greens (whose vote I think will fall anyway if the SSP go for list seats only). Anyway - the parties seem too far apart at the moment so there is no official 'deal' at the moment.
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azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3771

I don't think any other party (apart from greens) would work with the SSP anyway.

Maybe that's why the SNP are trying to outflank the other parties at the moment who may wish to work with the Greens. If they come to some sort of formal arrangement about voting tactics, an SNP/SSP/Greens coalition might just have enough MSPs to form the executive in 2007.
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Rinty · Posted: Mon Jan 16, 2006 11:35 pm Post subject: m

This would mean a large amount of SSP voters choosing SNP on the FPTP vote but I don't think SNP would ask their voters to vote SSP on the regional ballot. The SNP need the list seats themselves. Salmond will be elected from the list.

I think the idea is that the SSP will fare better standing only on the list, this is a decision which looks likely to be taken by the SSP at our annual conference in March. If this decision is taken it will be because the membership reckon it is a good move for the SSP.

After that it then makes sense to see how it can be maximised as a tool against Labour in Holyrood. That would mean SSP voters voting SNP en masse in the first ballot but it will not mean the reverse being proposed and I dont think that is even necessary.

The SSP will gain from this move by concentrating our significant human resources on the list votes and the most likely losers would be the Greens.

SLG · Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 2:50 pm Post subject: Re: m

Rinty · Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 6:39 pm Post subject: well

Well he is going to top a list as far I've been told and that he has chosen Gordon as his constituency means it is far more likely he would be elected from the top of a list.

In the last election the SNP were third behind the tories, their vote dropped by a couple of thousand from 1999. It would highly unlikely that the SNP could win the seat.

In my opinion it would be better for the SNP if he was elected from the list. A list MSP can give more time do a job in the executive or as a party leader, their regional constituency work can be done by the others elected on that list.

SLG · Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 7:19 pm Post subject:

The SNP still have a healthy vote in the area. I would expect the fact that it's Salmond standing to put an extra 10% on the vote, plus I any nationwide swing to the SNP. Not guaranteed by any stretch, but not that unlikely IMO. If the SNP are to have any chance of being in a position to form a executive with anyone they need to be winning seats like this.

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3771

what I don't understand is why some of the people in the labour party feel as though they have to come out and criticise him for wanting to stand in this particular constituency, citing 'arrogance' for doing so. What's arrogance got to do with anything? He's the party leader and he can pretty much stand in any constituency he wants. He's showing balls by standing in this constituency, though if he'd really wanted to show an example he should've stood against Jack McConnell - that would really stir things up. Show people that the SNP aren't scared of Labour in the traditional Labour heartlands.
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SLG · Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 8:35 pm Post subject:

Gordon is winnable though, Motherwell and Wishaw is not. Like I say as leader he carries extra votes. Standing in the NE even more. I think they have judged Gordon to require the optimal amount of swing to make best use of these votes. In M&W those votes would be wasted.

Rinty · Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2006 9:04 pm Post subject: n

I think it's probably the best seat for him to stand in as he a strong reputation in the area.

But I dont think it is winnable unless something dramatic happens to the sitting MSP. She has won comfortably the last twice so it would seem the voters are happy with her.

Even a 10% Salmond factor would still leave a swing of around another 20% from the SNP to the Lib Dems for Salmond to take the seat.

To me it is unrealistsic for the SNP to aim for such a swing given that their vote has gone down in Gordon and across Scotland between 99 and 2003. I would think that reversing the downward trend and getting the SNP vote going back up would be a big enough task.

I still don't see the need for Salmond to win an actual constituency seat though and dont think it would be a disaster if the SNP didn't win Gordon.

And again there is the danger that if the SNP did win the FPTP seat they might lose one of their two list members in the region.