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Maol.Chaluim
Standing in a Council Ward
Joined: 18 Sep 2005
Posts: 418
Location: Glaschu
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 Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 11:50 am Post subject: Lib Dems sound a death knell for independence referendum |
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http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=251642007
| Quote: | NICOL Stephen declared yesterday that the Liberal Democrats would block a referendum on Scottish independence unless pro-separatist parties gained a majority at Holyrood - an extremely unlikely situation according to current polls.
Mr Stephen, the leader of the Scottish Lib Dems, has made clear his opposition to such a referendum in the past, but this is the first time he has set out the threshold of seats which pro-independence parties would have to get before his party would agree to one.
In doing so, he appears to have put an insurmountable barrier in the way of an SNP-Lib Dem coalition in the Scottish Executive after May's election.
Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, has said he will insist on a referendum on independence in any coalition negotiations with the Lib Dems. But now Mr Stephen has insisted he will not accept that demand, unless voters give a clear mandate for it by electing enough MSPs from the pro-independence parties for them to command a majority.
Mr Stephen knows that even on the most optimistic forecasts, the SNP will be doing well to get 45 seats - 20 short of a majority. For there to be a clear mandate in favour of independence, the SSP, Solidarity, the Greens and sympathetic independents would have to secure a further 20 seats - which seems improbable.
This effectively creates a deadlock between the Lib Dems and SNP - a stalemate that will be broken only if one of the parties decides to shift its negotiating position after the election.
In an interview with The Scotsman, Mr Stephen was asked: "Are there any circumstances under which you would accept a referendum as part of a coalition with the SNP?"
He replied: "In 1997, the Liberal Democrats saw no need for a referendum before establishing a Scottish Parliament, which we strongly supported, so why in 2007 would we support a referendum to establish a separate Scottish state, which we strongly oppose? The Liberal Democrats will not support any back-door routes to independence after a Scottish election where the parties who support separation have no majority."
He was then asked: "If the parties supporting independence get a majority of seats or votes, that's a mandate for having a referendum, but if they don't get that, there is no mandate?"
He replied: "Correct."
Asked to clarify: "So, in any negotiations that will be your line, no referendum?"
He replied: "That's right."
The Lib Dems have been in power with Labour for the past eight years, but there are senior figures on both sides who feel that the coalition has gone far enough.
For the two to come together again, Labour would need to win the election - which the polls suggest is in the balance - and the parties would need to agree a common platform, which is also becoming much more difficult.
Both the Lib Dems and the SNP are undoubtedly posturing ahead of May's election. Both are trying to set out their respective positions as clearly as possible for the voters - even though they know the rules change immediately after the ballot papers are counted and the seats allocated.
As one SNP source said yesterday when asked whether his party's position on a referendum was non-negotiable: "Well, I know it is non-negotiable before the election."
Even Mr Stephen, after making it absolutely clear he would not do a deal on a referendum without a clear mandate, went on to stress he would not label anything as "non-negotiable".
He said: "If I start to divide the manifesto, divide our policies, into those bits which are negotiable and those bits which are non-negotiable, then people will immediately discount the sections of the manifesto which have been made 'negotiable'."
What Mr Stephen - who is set to be in the position of kingmaker - is doing, is trying both to firm up his rhetoric ahead of the election and give himself a little room to manoeuvre afterwards.
His decision to be apparently unequivocal on an independence referendum is designed to mark out the Lib Dems clearly as defiantly anti-independence. He believes this position will attract votes and he does not want to lose the support of those who do not want independence and are worried the Lib Dems will help it in through the back door.
This point will be emphasised by Sir Menzies Campbell, the Lib Dems' UK leader, who will use his speech to the party's Scottish conference in Aviemore today to deliver a broadside against the SNP in general and Mr Salmond in particular.
Sir Menzies is expected to claim that the SNP leader "uses the Scottish electorate as a vehicle for his personal ambition - from Scotland to Westminster, from Westminster to Scotland, and then back again".
He will add: "He is like the Grand Old Duke of York of Scottish politics. When he was up, he was up. And when he was down, he was down. But most of the time, he is halfway up. Which is neither up nor down."
It will be strong and vociferous language from Sir Menzies, reinforcing the message that Mr Stephen wants to portray - that his party will fight the nationalists for every vote in May.
But the Lib Dems are well aware that what happens after the election is a different matter. As the lead-up to the election in 1999 showed, previously non-negotiable policies can become negotiable when power comes within reach. In 1999, the Lib Dems made clear the abolition of tuition fees was non-negotiable. They wanted fees scrapped; Labour wanted to retain them.
This apparently intractable stalemate was resolved when the parties decided to set up a commission to look into the issue. After the commission reported, the Executive then hammered out a compromise deal, abolishing up-front tuition fees but creating the "graduate endowment" for students to pay when they had finished their studies.
That way, both parties could say they had stuck to their principles - and they were able to go into government together.
It would be surprising, but not impossible, for the Liberal Democrats and the SNP to cobble together some sort of similar compromise on an independence referendum. But what Mr Stephen has done now is to make that sort of compromise harder to reach.
He is insisting there will not be a deal without a clear mandate for independence. If a deal is done without such a mandate, he will have to answer for it.
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The Lib Dems have again ruled out a referendum if they form part of a coalition with the SNP, on the grounds that they're against independence. Is this tacit acceptance that the majority of people are in favour?
If only a clear mandate for independence (ie an absolute majority of pro-independence MSPs) would justify holding a referendum, surely there would be no need for a referendum at all, and the Government could simply declare independence. Would the Unionists accept that, or would they insist on a referendum?
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fiferjohn
On A Journey (500 Miles)
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
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Location: benbecula
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| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 12:13 pm Post subject: |
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i am afraid they would ask for a referendum . i don't know why the lib dems are going down this line for if and when the snp get in they will have four years at least to work out something to their advantage and any way once independence is achieved there would be new elections so every party can put policies over without someone checking if it is ok. chances are everybody will probably go back to voting labour has the job will be done by the snp and obtained independence.
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azzuri
'Our Scotland' Fossil
Joined: 12 Sep 2005
Posts: 4274
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| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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NICOL Stephen declared yesterday that the Liberal Democrats would block a referendum on Scottish independence unless pro-separatist parties gained a majority at Holyrood |
Em, why the hell would pro-Independence parties need Lib Dem support if they already have a majority?
Idiot...
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Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
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| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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This is the opening paragraph form the Scottish Liberal Democrat website, telling us what they are all about:
http://www.scotlibdems.org.uk/the_party/preamble.shtml
| Quote: | | The Scottish Liberal Democrats exist to build and safeguard a fair, free and open society, in which we seek to balance the fundamental values of liberty, equality and community and in which no-one shall be enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity. We champion the freedom, dignity and well-being of individuals, we acknowledge and respect their right to freedom of conscience and their right to develop their talents to the full . We aim to disperse power, to foster diversity and to nurture creativity. We believe that the role of the state is to enable all citizens to attain these ideals, to contribute fully to their communities and to take part in the decisions which affect their lives. |
I have highlighted all the statements that Stephen will be in breach of if he takes this decision not to agree to hold a referendum.
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azzuri
'Our Scotland' Fossil
Joined: 12 Sep 2005
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| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 12:38 pm Post subject: |
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It might be worth sending that in an email to the SNP RH.
Their stance is neither liberal nor democratic on an Independence referendum, bunch of A***holes.
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"Gordon Brown mistook a glut of cheap money and a global bull market for his own administrative genius. In so doing, he wrecked the economy. Had the Prime Minister been running a company, instead of a country, he would be facing an inquiry into allegations of criminal negligence." - Jeff Randal
"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury." - Alexander Tytler
Possibly the funniest site in the world, 'The Daily Mash' - http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/ |
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Economist
Our Scotland = 2nd Job!
Joined: 22 Apr 2006
Posts: 939
Location: Edinburgh
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| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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This stance by the LibDems is not really anything new, just Nicol Stephen restating what he's said before and what Ravishing Tavish Scott and Ming Campbell have all said before. But the LibDems can say what they want before an election, and they are entitled to. As the article points out, what happens afterwards is a different matter - and if they want to be in any form of government they'll have to shift substantially on a lot of things
It is very interesting though. I'm beginning to get the impression that another LibDem/Labour coalition is becoming increasingly unlikely. Independence aside, the Liberals have a lot in common with the SNP, in their domestic policies.
But it does seem a backhanded acceptance than independence is now the most favoured constitutional option, amongst the electorate. Nevertheless it is totally absurd that the 4th largest party in Scotland is in a position to dictate anything, let alone whinge about what the majority may want post election.
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Me Bungo Pony
On A Journey (500 Miles)
Joined: 02 Feb 2007
Posts: 29
Location: Misty Llanarc by the Tay
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| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | Nicol Stephen wrote:
NICOL Stephen declared yesterday that the Liberal Democrats would block a referendum on Scottish independence .... |
Aye, right  . The Lib Dem's very souls would become negotiable if they thought access to Ministerial posts was about to be lost  .
One thing this seemingly intractable stance may cause is a sudden surge of support from the LDs to the SNP. It is well known that many LD voters favour Independence and may find themselves with no other alternative than to vote SNP to get the referendum  . Thanks Nicol  .
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Lothian Sky
Helping with the Count
Joined: 04 Feb 2006
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| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 5:38 pm Post subject: |
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We cant lose, as long as Salmond sticks to his guns.
If they say no, fine, another 4 years of misery it is, in tandem with a Tory government in London. If we're in a good position now, we'll be in a fantastic position in 4 years time. |
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azzuri
'Our Scotland' Fossil
Joined: 12 Sep 2005
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| Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 5:57 pm Post subject: |
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Thats the way I think too LS. Don't give an inch cos' those slippery b***ards will take a mile.
Nice to see you back by the way... 
_________________
"Gordon Brown mistook a glut of cheap money and a global bull market for his own administrative genius. In so doing, he wrecked the economy. Had the Prime Minister been running a company, instead of a country, he would be facing an inquiry into allegations of criminal negligence." - Jeff Randal
"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury." - Alexander Tytler
Possibly the funniest site in the world, 'The Daily Mash' - http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/ |
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SLG
Born Again..........and still Scottish!
Joined: 16 Sep 2005
Posts: 5515
Location: Dùn Eideann
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| Posted: Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:35 am Post subject: |
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| I think this will backfire on the Lib Dems. I think they're just trying to hold their ground to get the most out of any coalition discussions after the election, but I think it will turn a lot of folk off. There are very few who are actually dead set opposed to a referendum (was it about 20% in the polls done?) and I expect they will be much more likely to vote for the more hard-core Unionist parties. |
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Scott2006
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 10 Oct 2006
Posts: 663
Location: Outside Glasgow
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| Posted: Sat Feb 17, 2007 11:21 am Post subject: |
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The Liberal Democrats probably expect to prop up a weakened Labour Party after the elections with the reward of even more places in the Executive. The Lib Dems will use any explorative talks with the SNP to drive a harder bargain with Labour. A Lab-Lib minority administration relying on the Tories to nominate a First Minister is a definite possibility.
Labour merely have to promise a return in the future to talks on a more "federal" type of UK to buy off the Lib Dems at a leadership level - and being the democratic party that they are - the leadership will impose their view without a thought to consulting with their membership.
Would Gordon Brown try to bring back discussions about a Northern Assembly, Midlands Assembly etc in his term as PM to keep the Lib Dems interested if he thinks the next Westminster election might be a hung parliament and he'd need the Lib Dems to keep him in power?
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