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me123
Finding Ma' Way
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 5
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 Posted: Sat Jun 06, 2009 11:09 pm Post subject: Independence: What after the referendum? |
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Hi everyone. I'm a first time poster with a quick question that I'm struggling to find the answer to.
If we were to go to the polls tomorrow with an independence referendum, we'd probably vote for the Scottish Parliament to begin talks leading to the foundation of an independent nation. But what would happen next? Am I right in saying that the power would not in fact be with the voters in this stage, but with the negotiations between Westminster and Holyrood? And if this is the case, what are the chances of Scotland gaining independence from the Union? Considering the Tories are firmly unionist, as are Labour. However there would (I imagine) be plenty of nationalist parties from across the UK in Westminster by 2010!
I hope someone can shed some light on this; whilst I can see Independence in the near future, I wonder about how likely this will actually be? Thanks in advance 
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Aventinian
1 Strike
Joined: 10 Dec 2005
Posts: 5557
Location: Oh, I get about a bit.
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Independence: What after the referendum? |
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| me123 wrote: | Hi everyone. I'm a first time poster with a quick question that I'm struggling to find the answer to.
If we were to go to the polls tomorrow with an independence referendum, we'd probably vote for the Scottish Parliament to begin talks leading to the foundation of an independent nation. |
What gives you that idea? Considering in current polls, support for independence has been running at about 1 in 5, it seems to me you'd need a miracle.
| Quote: | | But what would happen next? Am I right in saying that the power would not in fact be with the voters in this stage, but with the negotiations between Westminster and Holyrood? |
There would have to be negotiations between the two governments. That leaves the question open - are the UK Government negotiating for the UK, or England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Would it be appropriate for a Scottish PM, Chancellor and Scottish Secretary to participate in such negotiations? If a referendum has to give powers to the Scottish Executive to begin these negotiations, who would give this legitimacy to the UK Government for England, Wales and NI.
An agreement would have to be formulated by the two governments. It is then accepted by most academics that another referendum would be called on this agreement.
All this is assuming a consultative referendum ever took place. Jim Murphy wanted to call in any such bill and subject it to legal action before the Privy Council, in which it could be held ultra vires. It would certainly be a long process regardless of outcome. Not to mention the obvious: without securing Unionist support in the Scottish Parliament, it will never happen: and the Unionists have no reason to support such a bill. |
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Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2809
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: Independence: What after the referendum? |
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| me123 wrote: | | Hi everyone. |
I don't speak on behalf of "everyone" but Hi from me. | me123 wrote: | | I'm a first time poster with a quick question that I'm struggling to find the answer to. If we were to go to the polls tomorrow with an independence referendum, we'd probably vote for the Scottish Parliament to begin talks leading to the foundation of an independent nation. But what would happen next? |
There would probably be some huffing and puffing from politicians unhappy with such a result, but sooner or later there would have to be negotiations. | me123 wrote: | | Am I right in saying that the power would not in fact be with the voters in this stage, but with the negotiations between Westminster and Holyrood? |
That's right. Such a result would be the authorisation for such negotiations to proceed. | me123 wrote: | | And if this is the case, what are the chances of Scotland gaining independence from the Union? |
The negotiations would be quite lengthy and quite complicated. There is NO case on record where any country became independent from Britain without an extended period of negotiations. Even in the case of the USA, AFTER hostilities in the American war had ended, the negotiations on the details of American independence dragged on for THREE YEARS, and during all of that time British forces remained in control of New York, Detroit, and other parts of the USA. The negotiations where Scotland is concerned probably wouldn't last as long as that. After all, the USA was trying to claim all of Canada as part of their independent national territory, while we're not claiming anything which isn't clearly part of Scotland! The chances of the negotiations leading to independence before too long are excellent. |
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Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2809
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 2:04 pm Post subject: Re: Independence: What after the referendum? |
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| Aventinian wrote: | | are the UK Government negotiating for the UK, or England, Wales and Northern Ireland. |
A UK government which claimed to represent Scotland, England, Wales, and ALL of Ireland, and whose negotiating team included such firmly Unionist negotiators as Winston Churchill, nevertheless managed to negotiate about Irish independence with a delegation which included the terrorist leader of the IRA, Michael Collins. Compared with THAT, the problems in negotiating with representatives of the Scottish Parliament would be relatively small. | Aventinian wrote: | | Would it be appropriate for a Scottish PM, Chancellor and Scottish Secretary to participate in such negotiations? |
These negotiations are probably at least a year away. The chances of there being a Scottish Prime Minister in 10 Downing Street, and a Scottish Chancellor in 11 Downing Street, in a year's time, are approximately ZERO. | Aventinian wrote: | | If a referendum has to give powers to the Scottish Executive to begin these negotiations, who would give this legitimacy to the UK Government for England, Wales and NI. |
Problem already solved. Just look up how Winston Churchill managed to negotiate with Michael Collins. |
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Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2809
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 4:52 pm Post subject: Re: Independence: What after the referendum? |
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| Aventinian wrote: | | in current polls |
Now, now, Ave, your careless use of the word "polls" has already been pointed out to you several times. The word "poll" comes from an old Anglo-Saxon or Low German word meaning "head", from which it came to have the present day meaning of a "head count". The older meaning of the word survives in references to domesticated animals which have had their horns removed, and to trees which have had their tops cut off, being "polled", and also, of course, in expressions like "poll tax", a tax per head. The trouble with the exercises which you persist in wrongly describing as "polls" is that they aren't. They are not a count per head of the electorate. They are merely tiny samples which are alleged (by the professional charlatans conducting the so-called "poll") to be, in some magical but highly questionable way, "representative". They are not "evidence". They are inadmissable. A real opinion poll would be one in which the entire electorate of Scotland is asked their opinion on Independence or Union. Strangely enough, many Unionists, while claiming their view could win such a poll, are remarkably scared to actually put this to the test for proving or disproving. Supporters of independence, such as myself, on the other hand, are keen on such a poll, and the sooner the better. For reasons which have also already been explained many times, I feel confident that, when such a poll or referendum is conducted, the result will be somewhat different from the dodgy exercises in which YOU put so much faith. | Aventinian wrote: | | without securing Unionist support in the Scottish Parliament, it will never happen |
There are a couple of flaws in your reasoning, Ave. The first flaw is your use of the word "never". Politicians in general are a fairly flexible, some cynics would say opportunistic, bunch, and, as a great Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour Party once said, a week is a long time in politics. And if a week is a long time in politics, then things could look extremely different by this time next year. The second flaw is your assumption that the Scottish Parliament has a Unionist majority. With a capital, "U", no less. Well, that may be the appearance of things for now, but appearances can be very deceptive. The LibDems only managed to preserve their apparently united opposition to an independence referendum by sending one of their MSPs, who was known to dissent on this, on a fact-finding mission to Bulgaria. Or was it Kazakhstan? Anyway, you get the point. The Tory MSPs are reliably reported to be far from unanimous on this. As for the Labour Party, they have already changed both policies and leaders several times, and will do so again. The next Scottish elections will almost certainly see a rise in the numbers of MSPs committed to independence. And regardless of when the next election comes, even some of the present lot could be capable of flexibility. There may be some for whom the continued vitality of the Labour Party in an independent Scotland, or the continued vitality of the Conserative Party in an independent Scotland, is more important than manning the last ditch in defence of the Union. I realise this is practically an article of faith with you, Ave, but fewer and fewer folk share your belief in a rock-solid Unionist majority. |
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agentmancuso
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 2910
Location: Gone to the forest
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 5:03 pm Post subject: Re: Independence: What after the referendum? |
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| Dave Coull wrote: | | the USA was trying to claim all of Canada as part of their independent national territory |
A logical enough position, in many ways.
| Quote: | | while we're not claiming anything which isn't clearly part of Scotland! |
Berwick!
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Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2809
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 5:24 pm Post subject: Re: Independence: What after the referendum? |
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| I wrote: | | the USA was trying to claim all of Canada as part of their independent national territory, while we're not claiming anything which isn't clearly part of Scotland! |
| agentmancuso wrote: | | Berwick! |
WRONG.
Regardless of what may have happened in the distant past, no present day political party in Scotland claims that the border should be moved to incorporate Berwick into Scotland. No organisation exists which campaigns for Berwick to be part of Scotland. The great majority of the population of Scotland couldn't care less about Berwick. No conceivable negotiating team delegated by the Scottish Parliament would risk the progress of the negotiations by attaching importance to Berwick. So far as the independence negotiations are concerned, it is a complete non-issue. |
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agentmancuso
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 2910
Location: Gone to the forest
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 6:25 pm Post subject: Re: Independence: What after the referendum? |
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| Dave Coull wrote: | | So far as the independence negotiations are concerned, it is a complete non-issue. |
Maybe. But it amuses the hell out of me all the same.
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Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2809
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 6:52 pm Post subject: Re: Independence: What after the referendum? |
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Regarding Berwick, I wrote | Quote: | | So far as the independence negotiations are concerned, it is a complete non-issue. |
| agentmancuso wrote: | | it amuses the hell out of me |
Nevertheless, it's a complete load of bolwicks. |
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agentmancuso
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 2910
Location: Gone to the forest
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 7:04 pm Post subject: |
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It should perhaps be borne in mind that membership of the 'Free Berwick' campaign is exactly 25% of the membership of Determination...
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Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2809
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 7:39 pm Post subject: |
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| agentmancuso wrote: | | It should perhaps be borne in mind that membership of the 'Free Berwick' campaign is exactly 25% of the membership of Determination... |
Eh?
Either you know something I don't, or you have taken up a new career as a fiction writer. My bet is on the latter. |
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me123
Finding Ma' Way
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 5
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| Posted: Sun Jun 07, 2009 11:11 pm Post subject: |
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Hi everyone. Thanks very much for your interesting replies
Aventinian, I can see where your 1 in 5 vote comes from. However, a yougov survey (seen here), surveying Scottish adults showed a nearly 50:50 split in Scottish representation (not UK) in Europe, and a much greater swing towards independence than before (I think 1 in 3). This is, of course, before all the scandals. I'm sure I've seen somewhere (although I'll admit that I can't give a source, and that that is itself a weak argument) that there is now a move towards independence, albeit possibly anger towards the system that may not last. Even the most Nationalist side of me cannot deny that the SNP vote in 2007 was not for independence, rather a protest against Labour.
It's interesting that the overall comments are that, despite only needing a single referendum result, we the Scottish people would be allowed a say in the future via many further referendums (albeit in a lengthy process, understandably so). Would it be right to say, however, that a positive result for independence would, likely, mean that we would be independent at some point in the future? Ensuring continued support, of course. There's no doubt in my mind that it would be a complicated process for a number of reasons.
Regarding Berwick-upon-Tweed, I heard that a lot of them want to join Scotland! (Although, again, I don't have a source for that; in this case it's been word of mouth). I don't really think it's going to happen, though.
Thanks again for some fantastic (and interesting) replies. I'm sure I'm coming across here as a staunch Nationalist. And I make no apology, I am. Ask me a year ago, however, and I would have been completely Unionist. I'm one of those that has slowly been turned against Westminster, and it's not entirely because of expenses. And I know a lot of people who have also come to the same, or a similar, decision. |
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Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2809
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| Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:39 am Post subject: |
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| me123 wrote: | | Regarding Berwick-upon-Tweed, I heard that a lot of them want to join Scotland! |
What you "heard" was based on a North of England Liberal Democrat MP suggesting Berwick would be better coming under the Scottish Parliament (but NOT being part of an independent Scotland) because the NHS is better in Scotland, and several hundred folk supporting this view in a so-called "poll" conducted by the Berwick local paper. On the other hand, "I heard" that when England is playing in the World Cup, the town of Berwick-on-Tweed is a virtual sea of English flags. There is really no evidence that they would want to join an independent Scotland, and, even if they did - it's not up to them. Scotland has no territorial claims on the neighbours, no border disputes with anybody. No political party in Scotland claims that the border should be moved to incorporate Berwick. No conceivable negotiating team delegated by the Scottish Parliament would risk the progress of the negotiations over this. It's just a nonsense which tends to get raised by Unionists to try to un-necessarily complicate things, but, in reality, it's a complete non-issue. | me123 wrote: | | Would it be right to say, however, that a positive result for independence would, likely, mean that we would be independent at some point in the future? |
I think we can be a bit more positive than just "at some point in the future". There would be negotiations, and these could be quite time-consuming, but Scotland is in the happy position of NOT being handicapped by some of the complications which have applied in other cases, so I think we could predict independence within a couple of years of a positive referendum result. |
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magister ludi
Gaining a Reputation
Joined: 13 Dec 2008
Posts: 225
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| Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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berwick-on-tweed, mmmm.
perhaps we could have them as a colony?
or a tax haven, a sort of poor mans lichenstein?
or turn it into a big duty free shop, like Andorra?
Now....what about the Isle of Mann? |
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agentmancuso
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 2910
Location: Gone to the forest
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| Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 4:43 pm Post subject: |
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| magister ludi wrote: | | Now....what about the Isle of Mann? |
Nope, the Norwegians have their eye on that.
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agentmancuso
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 2910
Location: Gone to the forest
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| Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Dave Coull wrote: | | agentmancuso wrote: | | It should perhaps be borne in mind that membership of the 'Free Berwick' campaign is exactly 25% of the membership of Determination... |
Eh?
Either you know something I don't, or you have taken up a new career as a fiction writer. My bet is on the latter. |
Well there's one of me and four of you...
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It's murder every week at Firhill. |
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Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2809
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| Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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| I wrote: | | No organisation exists which campaigns for Berwick to be part of Scotland. |
| agentmancuso wrote: | | membership of the 'Free Berwick' campaign is exactly 25% of the membership of Determination |
When I suggested that was "fiction" | agentmancuso wrote: | | there's one of me and four of you |
Wrong. As individuals, there's one of you and one of me. But one person can't accurately be described as an | Quote: | | organisation which campaigns |
for ANYTHING. Now, although I did, for a few weeks in 2005, hold an "official" position with Independence First, I never at any time held any kind of official position with Determination. But I do know the membership figure you suggest was never true. You're alluding to the small protest which some of us took part in (on a Thursday morning, when most folk were unavailable for various reasons) at the Scottish Parliament. At that time, Determination had 15 members. It's a bit uncertain whether Determination has ANY members at all nowadays, since, although the group has not been officially wound up, there hasn't been a meeting for an awful long time. Most of us are still friends and still in touch with each other, and there is still some money in the group funds (no, not held by me), so I suppose the group could be revived and those funds put to good use if we so decided. But at present it's uncertain if the group exists. However, that doesn't alter the fact that you were wrong, simply because, even if YOU genuinely believe in claiming Berwick for Scotland, you stated and there's no way that you as one person can be considered an "organised campaign".
By the way, I note that you have absolutely nothing constructive whatsoever to say on the subject of this discussion, "INDEPENDENCE - WHAT AFTER THE REFERENDUM?" |
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agentmancuso
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 06 Sep 2006
Posts: 2910
Location: Gone to the forest
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| Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Dave Coull wrote: | | It's a bit uncertain whether Determination has ANY members at all nowadays |
So the Free Berwick Campaign is now officially bigger than Determination!
| Quote: | | I suppose the group could be revived and those funds put to good use if we so decided. |
A contradiction in terms I'd say.
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there's no way that you as one person can be considered an "organised campaign". |
I don't see why not. I have headed paper. And 'post it' notes.
| Quote: | | I note that you have absolutely nothing constructive whatsoever to say on the subject of this discussion, "INDEPENDENCE - WHAT AFTER THE REFERENDUM?" |
After the referendum, if there is a referendum, we will slowly begin to repair the damage caused by insisting on holding the referendum.
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Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2809
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| Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 9:11 pm Post subject: |
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From the official SNP website: | Quote: | | We believe in the people of Scotland, and what they could achieve with the benefits and opportunities offered by Independence. Of course, the choice will rest with you, as it should, IN A REFERENDUM. |
The first minister of Scotland, Alex Salmond, has repeatedly said that his SNP government wants a referendum, and that they will actively seek one through putting a bill before the Scottish Parliament. The Deputy First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, is also on record saying this. So are many other prominent members of the SNP and the Scottish Government. | agentmancuso wrote: | | if there is a referendum |
"If"? Are you saying Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon and all their SNP colleagues are lying? | agentmancuso wrote: | | we will slowly begin to repair the damage caused |
What damage could possibly be caused by allowing the people of Scotland the democratic self-determination to decide, for the very first time ever, whether they favour Independence or Union? | agentmancuso wrote: | | the Free Berwick Campaign |
There is no bona fide "Free Berwick Campaign", it's just something you've dreamed up, and even you don't really believe it. Nevertheless, Unionists do keep an eye on this forum, and no doubt your rubbish might be cited at some point in the future as "proof" of potential border disputes and problems with independence. So, no matter how boring it may get, I will keep on repeating, ad infinitum if necessary, that no political party, and no organised campaign, in Scotland, claims the border should be moved; and that no conceivable Scottish negotiating team would risk the progress of independence negotiations by raising this. |
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me123
Finding Ma' Way
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 5
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| Posted: Mon Jun 08, 2009 11:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Dave Coull wrote: | | agentmancuso wrote: | | if there is a referendum |
"If"? Are you saying Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon and all their SNP colleagues are lying? |
Bear in mind, of course, that it needs to get past a sea of Unionist support. The SNP are in a minority government in Scotland. I thought Scottish Labour (not Gordon Brown's side) actually supported a referendum, although expected the result to be "No to independence". I wonder if they still support it in light of recent events. Nevertheless, I do know plenty of people, both pro-independence and pro-union, who want a referendum so they can have their say. I think a lot of people want to go to the polls on the issue, and it would be unfair and undemocratic, in my humble opinion, to deny them the opportunity to vote either way.
I appreciate my question did jump the gun a bit; obviously the referendum hasn't happened yet, and as far as I know there's no confirmation that it will happen for certain. However, it's the aftermath that confused me a bit.
A final thought from me on Berwick; I read somewhere that people want to be part of Scotland due to a shake-up of the borough councils (they are/were going to be represented by Morpeth which is miles further South) and they thought they'd get a better deal in Scotland. Obviously, they were part of Scotland historically. Of course, even if they did want to do it, it would be a huge issue that would happen totally independently of the Independence referendum.
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