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agentmancuso

20,000 immigrants a year needed

Interesting article in The Herald about Scotland's falling population:

Quote:
Scotland needs to attract 20,000 immigrants a year to save the economy from collapse over the next 30 years, a government-backed report warns today.

The alternative is an impoverished future, with a shrinking younger workforce supporting an ageing population.

By 2040, says the report from the Economic and Social Research Council, nearly one-third of the population will be aged 75 and over. Shortage of labour will drive up wages, make our exports less competitive, and wreck the economy.
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It is a more pessimistic picture than the more recent figures published in October by the Registrar General for Scotland, which said the current population of 5.12 million would rise to 5.37 million by 2031, with births peaking then at 57,600.

However, the ESRC report says the recent net annual increase in population may be a blip ahead of a long-term decline.

For the first time, it examines the reasons why Scottish birth rates are the lowest in the UK. It found that Scotland is becoming a nation of small families. Although Scottish mothers start having children earlier, they have much larger gaps between births. They are most likely to stop when they have two children, compared with English women who go on to have three or four.

The report found that Scottish women often wanted bigger families, but kept them small because of the demands of work or worries about their finances and living conditions.

The total fertility rate, 1.62, is slightly above the EU average but 24% below the level needed to prevent a drop in population.

According to one of the authors, David Bell, professor of economics at Stirling University, yesterday, we will have to look beyond the EU to meet this need, which could run counter to UK immigration controls unveiled by the Westminster government on Wednesday, closing off Britain to unskilled migrants from outwith the EU.


On the same page there's some eye-popping insight into the lunatic-fringe of newspaper comments posters, if you have the stomach.

(Ha! Just noticed the 'outwith' in the last line quoted. It must be written in a different language!)
RadgeJougal

Of course we've got a falling population... we've made it expensive and difficult to raise children, and many of our brightest and best are still forced to leave the country for better employment prospects.

"(Ha! Just noticed the 'outwith' in the last line quoted. It must be written in a different language!)"

Erm, no. That's a deliberate distortion of what I said elsewhere.
Economist

Scotland hasn't got a falling population currently, it is projected to fall in the distant future - after the next 40 years or so.

However, Scotland should be responsible for exercising its own immigration policy - a point that demographers studying this phenomenon in Scotland, have called for.
Celtic Indian

There going to be to many humans on the planet soon anyway.Some say that 6bn is to much just now.
RadgeJougal

Celtic Indian wrote:
There going to be to many humans on the planet soon anyway.


The trouble is that the people with little money (even in Scotland) are the ones who do the most breeding...
SLG

RadgeJougal wrote:
The trouble is that the people with little money (even in Scotland) are the ones who do the most breeding...

Is there actually any evidence for that?
Aventinian

I'm afraid someone will have to translate the above article for me, monoglot English speaker that I am.
SLG

Aventinian wrote:
I'm afraid someone will have to translate the above article for me, monoglot English speaker that I am.

Read it again.  It is in fact written in English.
RadgeJougal

SLG wrote:
RadgeJougal wrote:
The trouble is that the people with little money (even in Scotland) are the ones who do the most breeding...

Is there actually any evidence for that?


Of course there is! Which areas of the world have the highest birth rates?

Most of Scotland's babies are currently being produced by single mums too.
Neil

All these projections are barely worth the paper they are written on anyway. This same projection was made a few years ago except that we were going to beunder 5 million now. Then came the new EU states (official projections of immigration from that were 13,000 across the entire UK)). This projection is based on the belief that that immigration will be a "blip". Aye right.

The other shoe waiting to fall is that, with biotechnology growing at least as fast as computer capacity, some time fairly soon somebody is going to be able to stop, or even reverse aging.
SLG

RadgeJougal wrote:
Of course there is! Which areas of the world have the highest birth rates?

Yes, there's a correlation at a global level.  I'd expect it to be true within Scotland as well, but I can't find any published stats though.

RadgeJougal wrote:
Most of Scotland's babies are currently being produced by single mums too.

In 2005, 47% of children were born to unmarried parents.  I'd imagine that a significant number of those were unmarried couples rather than single mums.

http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/files/05t3-1.xls
RadgeJougal

Many of these genuinely are single mums, SLG. I know a few myself. In one case, a boy has fathered five children by different mothers.
Dave Coull

Radge Jougal wrote "The trouble is that the people with little money (even in Scotland) are the ones who do the most breeding..."

So, are you in favour of sterilisation of the lower classes, like Sir Keith Joseph?  Even in fatalistic India, where Hindu religion teaches the lower classes that their place at the bottom of the heap is part of cosmic kharma and cannot be challenged, there was trouble when that was tried. In this country, you could absolutely gaurantee bloodshed.

Radge Jougal also said "Most of Scotland's babies are currently being produced by single mums"

It's a mass miracle! It's Christmas all year round! Or it would be. But I think you will find that single men, or even married men, in fact even quite rich married men in some cases, played a part in this at some point. And anyway, it is a big mistake to equate "unmarried" with "single".

Radge Jougal now says "Many of these genuinely are single mums, SLG. I know a few myself"

Your boasts of having "known a few" yourself are worth about as much as any other unverifiable claim made by a nobody hiding behind a pseudo-name   -   zero. You claimed that "most babies are born to single mums". SLG came up with a more precise statement, 47% of babies born in Scotland to unmarried parents (which is not the same thing as "single mums"). Never mind your made-up anecdotes. You said "a majority". Have you any statistics to back up your claim?
carol

RadgeJougal wrote:
Celtic Indian wrote:
There going to be to many humans on the planet soon anyway.


The trouble is that the people with little money (even in Scotland) are the ones who do the most breeding...


oops just as well I stopped at no. 6  Razz
carol

SLG your stats file is taken from the General Register of Scotland, it's not possible from these statistics to determine how many were single mothers or whether they were unmarried couples.

http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/st...ublications/96annrep/96sect3.html

Notes
The term married parents refers to parents who are married to each other and the term unmarried parents refers to parents who are unmarried or married but not to each other

also:

36 per cent of births were to unmarried parents, compared with 34 per cent in 1995. However, of the 21,361 births outside marriage, 80 per cent (17,164) were registered jointly by the mother and the father. In 1981 only 57 per cent (4,848) of the 8,447 births to unmarried parents were joint registrations.
Over 80 per cent of the births to unmarried parents were born to mothers aged over 20. However, 93 per cent of births to mothers aged under 20 were outside marriage. (Table 3.1)


the percentage of births registered jointly doesn't necessarily mean that the parents were couples, by law for a child to take the father's 'name' (edit - outside wedlock) he has to be there at registration of birth.

Also the latter part '93% of births to mothers aged under 20 were outside marriage' in this instance one could easily presume a high ratio of single mums.

actual statistics on 'single' mums is what's needed, although I can imagine difficult to get.

regards

Carol
RadgeJougal

Dave Coull wrote:

So, are you in favour of sterilisation of the lower classes, like Sir Keith Joseph?


Aye right

But I might make an exception for folk who order their wives off the internet like a product from eBay!

"And anyway, it is a big mistake to equate "unmarried" with "single"."

I didn't...

"pseudo-name"

Pseudonym.

"a nobody hiding behind a pseudo-name"

I'm just off to fetch my blood type, my bank details, my phone number etc to post on the site. Aye right... I'm not giving out my private details online like an idiot.

"Have you any statistics to back up your claim?"

Why don't you go and find them yourself, and write a ten thousand word tome on the subject? Like you normally do.
Dave Coull

I asked "Have you any statistics to back up your claim?"

Radge Jougal responds "Why don't you go and find them yourself"

In other words, the short answer is "NO".
RadgeJougal

Nah, the short answer is "do something useful with your life".
Dave Coull

Radge Jougal wrote "the short answer is 'do something useful with your life' ".

Since my opinion of you is extremely low, I couldn't care less whether you think my life is "useful" or not.
RadgeJougal

Perhaps you should tend to your own...
Dave Coull

I have said several times that Radge Jougal likes to bring discussions down to the level that suits him best, that of the gutter. I have only just noticed another example of this from him, presumably aimed at me.

He denies being in favour of sterilisation, but adds "but I might make an exception for folk who order their wives off the internet like a product from eBay!".

I met my wife on the internet. She is from San Francisco. We were both on the same international discussion forum (the anarchy list), and for months she kept saying on the forum that she liked things I had written. She was particularly interested in stuff about Scottish politics. This led on to us exchanging private e-mail messages, then to personal phone calls, then to exchanging photos of each other. She also sent me photos of where she lived, and I noticed that it was a lot nicer than my cooncil flat in Dundee. I told her that I was a grumpy old so-and-so who was very set in his ways and who would never change. I told her I couldn't see how this long distance romance could work. I told her that at my age there was no likelihood of me emigrating. I was completely honest with her. She told me she was a non-smoker. Apparently she had been a non-smoker, for about two days. Apart from that, the rest of what she told me was very honest. We finally met in person at Glasgow airport at the beginning of December 1998, and we have been very happy together ever since. Nowadays, many millions of people meet their future partners on the internet. In fact, nowadays, it is either already the most common way of meeting future partners, or close to becoming the most common way of meeting future partners.
RadgeJougal

I was talking about mail order Filipino brides. Like the ones on that programme Louis Theroux did on Weird Weekends

http://www.filipinaheart.com/
carol

online dating's interesting .............  Wink
mairead

I don't see internet dating as any different from meeting someone in a pub or dance etc. After all at least on line, people have a chance to talk to each other before meeting.

I do get the point Radge was making about Filipinos though. Many a man has catalogue bought and married a Filipino only to find his cash going back to the Filipines and a divorce and financial settlement coming shortly after.
RadgeJougal

"I don't see internet dating as any different from meeting someone in a pub or dance etc."

I do. It's a lot harder to deceive face to face. You also get a better idea of both their personality and their looks. Not to mention their dress sense, behaviour, personal hygiene (or lack thereof) etc The internet may help you find common interests, but that's about it.

A few years back, eastern European brides were in fashion. With the expansion of the EU, this is finito even for the ex-Soviet countries. Now I know some people genuinely meet and fall in love from people from these parts, but I mind once being in a night class with a woman called Oxana from the Ukraine. She had been married to X (forget his name), long enough to get the passport, have kids, and then to divorce him.

But you're not even safe with Americans. Mind the story about that guy who thought he was going to marry an Indian princess? She turned out to be anything but.
carol

internet dating sites are wide open to deception and easily abused, they should be better regulated
Holebender

Still the authoritarian, Carol.
carol

assurances Neil there are quite a lot of cranks on internet dating sites
RadgeJougal

Camera never lies? No, the camera doesn't, but make-up, angles and your personal profile can!
mairead

I'm not ssuggesting that anyone should get married after only an internet conversation or two, but surely, after talking on the internet for a time, people will then have a face to face at some point.
How we meet someone is not so important as how long and how well we actually know them before making any committment.
It's just as easy to be deceived by some charmer, male or female, at a pub, club or dance as anywhere else.
RadgeJougal

"It's just as easy to be deceived by some charmer, male or female, at a pub, club or dance as anywhere else."

No, not just as easy. Unless you've had a skinful.
Niqaryt

Neil wrote:
All these projections are barely worth the paper they are written on anyway. This same projection was made a few years ago except that we were going to beunder 5 million now. Then came the new EU states (official projections of immigration from that were 13,000 across the entire UK)). This projection is based on the belief that that immigration will be a "blip".


The projections are based on the assumption that current trends will continue into the future - all governmental projections always are. This is because it has proven impossible to accurately predict trends in migration, even of the next few years. For example, Eastern European migrants come to the UK for work, primarily because Germany and France have placed restrictions on Eastern European migrants working there. Come 2010, these restrictions are going to be lifted and then migrants from (for example) Poland may choose to go to Germany instead, which is far closer to home...or not - migration depends on a huge variety of factors, many of which are entirely out of Scotland's control.

Government projections include 'variant' projections, which project into the future under different trends, some of which predict a rising population, some predict a falling population, but the one that is officially quoted is based on the assumption that birth and migration levels stay the same over the next 40 years.

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