Are Tories About To Take Over Scotland As Well?

Reluctant Hero · Are Tories About To Take Over Scotland As Well?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/south_of_scotland/7379524.stm

Tory wins stretch into Scotland

A night of council victories for the Conservative Party south of the border has reached into Scotland.

Mike Thomson won a by-election for the Abbey ward on Dumfries and Galloway Council, forced by the resignation of Tory Party colleague Bruce Hodgson.

Mr Thomson saw off Labour, SNP, Lib Dem and independent candidates to secure the seat.

He was a former independent councillor who had a place on the south west Scotland authority up until 2003.

Mr Thomson took the Dumfries and Galloway seat with more than 2,000 votes from a turnout of about 45%.

In second place was Labour's Tom McAughtrie, followed by John McNaught of the SNP, independent Graham McLeod and Lib Dem Keith Mycock.

The Tories south of the border gained more than 100 seats during the council elections in England and Wales.

Dave Coull

"A night of council victories for the Conservative Party south of the border has reached into Scotland. Mike Thomson won a by-election for the Abbey ward on Dumfries and Galloway Council, forced by the resignation of Tory Party colleague Bruce Hodgson."

So, this by-election was forced by the resignation of a Tory councillor? In other words, this was not a gain from another party, but merely a case of the Tories managing to retain a council seat which they already held? "Tory wins stretch into Scotland" seems like an awful lot of fuss to make over a political party managing to retain a single council seat in an area where they have always had traditional support.

"Are The Tories About To Take Over Scotland As Well?"

Whoever came up with that daft question, remember, when they offer you those strange sweeties, "Just Say No". There is not the slightest sign, not even the remotest hint, that such a pipedream fantasy could be possible.

Reluctant Hero

agentmancuso

Lewis

I highly doubt that they have a major effect in Scotland's politics compared to England.

Aventinian

Yes, I wouldn't make a big thing about retaining a by-election seat.

Still, it's very clearly a different atmosphere and I thoroughly believe the Tories in Scotland can raise themselves up back to pre-97 levels without any great deal of effort.

Holebender

If it's that easy, why haven't they do it yet?

Aventinian

Holebender

If it was so easy, I'd expect to see some indication of this Tory advance in the opinion polls which are regularly published. Despite Annabel Goldie's normally good performances in the Parliament Scotland's voters don't seem to be warming to the Tories at all.

iainmhor

Aye Tories in Scotland have nothing to fear from Labour on defending the union and maintaining the hegemony of capital. They remain the unions A Team.

Alasdair

will live from Glasgow

Although it seems unlikely that this will happen a history lecturer recently told me that after the labour victory in 1997 an old labour man in a pub in edinburgh told him his main worry was that there was soon to be a new generation of voters in scotland who "didnt hate the torys."
most people however still do Cool

Aventinian

Holebender

So how do you reconcile that analysis with

Scott2006

On the 'thatcher hangover' theory on Tories in Scotland, Thatcher tapped in to a generation that lived through WWII ie if age 20 in 1945, then age 54 in 1979 (age 83 in 2008) - she retained a high vote share among 'working class Tories' in Scotland as well as the middle and upper classes who more easily identify themselves with the Conservative Party.

As Conservatives in the top stream or 1st class operators in parliamentary terms relocate to England to find a seat - Liam Fox, Gerry Malone (really 2nd class operator...) , Michael Ancram, Malcolm Rifkind - the last two after rejection by their choosy Scottish electorate.

The Tories at Holyrood are the poor relations of a second eleven, in effect the bottom of the second class politically, or maybe the top third rate poiliticians the Conservative Party can get from their cosy exclusive Golf Clubs.

The Conservatives in the 80s had a bedrock 14% based on which strata of the B and C1 class identification.

The other generational shift affecting the Tories is someone born in 1979 was possibly able to vote in 1997 at age 18. People who had not lived through the war and rationing in the early 1950s seem between 5% to 10% at least to be less likely interested enough in politics to be bothered to vote.

The next generation of voters - not Thatcher's children but Blair's bairns born in 1997 - get the chance to vote and possibly leave school, buy cigarettes etc in 2015 which is when the Tories should see a noticeable upturn in votes, but only if they find Scotland still part of the UK and the probable Cameron Tory government hasn't made a mess of the economy by then.