SLG
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Best pollSo here's the breakdown...
Constituency:
LAB 32.2
SNP 32.9
LD 16.2
CON 16.6
List:
SNP 31.0
CON 13.9
LAB 29.2
LD 11.3
GRN 4.0
Anyone know which poll came closest?
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George
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Re: Best pollI have put together some numbers in order to compare trends since 1999. Haven't come to any conclusions yet but should be interesting trying. The changes from this election with 2003 are in bold....can't find the precentage for SSP.
2007 Constituency....... 2003 Constituency........Change since 1999:
LAB 32.2 .......................... 34.6...................-6.61 (-4.21 & -2.40)
SNP 32.9 .......................... 23.8..................+3.94 (-4.96 & +8.90)
LD 16.2 ............................ 15.3.................+2.05 (+0.90 & +1.15)
CON 16.6 .......................... 16.6 ................+1.04 (+1.04 & 0.00)
SSP ### .......................... 6.2 .................. ### (+5.19 & ###)
2007 List: ..................... 2003 List:.................. Change since 1999:
SNP 31.0 ......................... 20.9 ................. +3.74 (-6.36 & +10.1)
CON 13.9 ........................ 15.5 ................. -1.45 (+0.15 & -1.6)
LAB 29.2 .......................... 29.3 ................ -4.44 (-4.34 & -0.10)
LD 11.3 ........................... 11.8 ................. -1.13 (-0.63 & -0.50)
GRN 4.0 .......................... 6.9 ................... +2.00 (+4.90 & -2.90)
SSP ### ........................ 6.7 ................... ### (+3.1 & ###)
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agentmancuso
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The SSP got 0.6% of the list vote ( 12,732)and 0.0% of the constituency vote (525).
They were even beaten by the mysterious Socialist Labour Party, who got 0.7% despite being completely invisible. Maybe the SSP will find a crumb of comfort in their crushing of the dissident Communist Party, who polled a mere 260 votes nationwide. 
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SLG
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I think most of the Socialist Labour party votes were meant to be for the Scottish Labour Party.
Although the SSP putting Rosie Kane's name next to the SSP on the glasgow ballot probably lost them a lot of votes.
I was particularly pleased to see Scottish Voice struggle to get more than a couple of hundred votes in each region.
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SLG
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The Labour vote has clearly held up at this election, but as I said elsewhere, I think this is due to a lot of support from folk who'd normally vote for other Unionist parties. If the SNP manage to form a coalition, I think the next four years will be as much of a test of Labour as of the SNP.
How will Labour react to opposition? Will the break down into infighting? Will the be able to offer constructive opposition? If they fail, and the SNP don't mess things up, I could see a real slide in Labour support. Never mind that they've had their local government base slashed.
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Aventinian
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Scottish Voice were a bit oddly behaved in all this - they barely bothered to launch a campaign, they did it with virtually zero policies. It's really as if it was an idea cooked up in an afternoon and forgotten just as quickly.
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Economist
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| Aventinian wrote: | | Scottish Voice were a bit oddly behaved in all this - they barely bothered to launch a campaign, they did it with virtually zero policies. It's really as if it was an idea cooked up in an afternoon and forgotten just as quickly. |
Same with the Scottish Peoples Alliance, back in 2003 which was cooked up by some dissident Tories, Keith Harding was one of them. Oddly some of their election literature still clings to a lamppost right in the centre of Edinburgh (outside Jenners, I think).
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Aventinian
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| Economist wrote: | | Same with the Scottish Peoples Alliance, back in 2003 which was cooked up by some dissident Tories, Keith Harding was one of them. Oddly some of their election literature still clings to a lamppost right in the centre of Edinburgh (outside Jenners, I think). |
Nothing quite like old election materials.
There's a wall in a town close to me with a very faded but large picture of William Hague on it along with some propaganda.
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William_Cleland
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| SLG wrote: | | How will Labour react to opposition? Will the break down into infighting? Will the be able to offer constructive opposition? If they fail, and the SNP don't mess things up, I could see a real slide in Labour support. Never mind that they've had their local government base slashed. |
Another big problem for Labour in the interim would be what happens when the SNP get to see all the intricate details of how the finances have worked at both local council and Holyrood levels. Probably a few scandals to be uncovered.
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Claymore
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| Quote: | | How will Labour react to opposition? Will the break down into infighting? Will the be able to offer constructive opposition? If they fail, and the SNP don't mess things up, I could see a real slide in Labour support. Never mind that they've had their local government base slashed. |
That’s one of the reasons I’m not too worried if the snp form a minority gov at this moment, I think id rather have that than officially pushing aside the independence referendum, true if they tried to get it through parliament now (when it’s up and running) it’s almost certain to fail but you don’t know what around the corner. It’s pretty likely the conservatives will win the next general election, so I wonder what Scottish labour do when the dung really hits the fan for them, it’s not impossible for some of them at least to rebel against the party line and maybe support a referendum then. The snp should use between now and then to build up the confidence of the Scottish people, show strong leadership, improve things and set the groundwork for independence as it were. Labour may say the snp won’t work constructively with Westminster, but labours idea of working constructively would be to do what brown says and collect your pay packet at the end of the week. Obviously the snp shouldn’t pick fights with them for fights sake but the snp’s job is to stand up for Scotland and do what’s in the interest of our nation, if issues like trident get brought up, id say good, labour can point the finger and moan that we’re picking fights, but I can’t see the Scottish people thinking the same thing, they’ll probably be thankful that their leaders are actually standing up for them rather than just bending over backwards on important issues or saying that’s a reserved matter and wash their hands on it.
To be honest I expect the labour leadership both in holyrood and London to do what it can to try and hinder any snp government in the hope that it fails.
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Reluctant Hero
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| Quote: | | The snp should use between now and then to build up the confidence of the Scottish people |
I think that will be a problem if they go down the minority government route. Every bill they propose will be voted down left, right and centre.
I wouldn't be surprised if even the Lib Dems voted against scrapping the council tax and replacing it with an income based tax even though that was one of their policies. Ming Campbell has made it clear on what the Scottish Lib Dems should do with regards to the SNP, so every opportunity they get, I think they would take the opportunity of cheap political points instead of what is best for Scotland.
However, this will be remembered when it comes to vote again in 2011.
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Claymore
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I think perhaps you could be right, the libdems could do pretty badly in the next westminster election too, loose a lot of ground to the conservatives like they did in the council elections, one reason to make sure labour don't get back in
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