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Dave Coull
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Brian Taylor on referendum prospectsTuesday, 16 June 2009
Brian Taylor's blog on the BBC website yesterday makes interesting reading
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/therep...not_impossible_but_difficult.html
| Quote: | Alex Salmond has now set out more info about his plans for independence: he will publish a White Paper on St Andrew's day this year, with a referendum Bill to follow in 2010.
More intriguingly, he has suggested the eventual referendum ballot paper to go before the voters, Holyrood permitting, might include a "Calman option".
This is smart thinking by the FM. His opponents in the Scottish Parliament are opposed to holding a referendum next year.
Whatever they may say, I suspect that, privately, they understand that this is a tricky place to be, politically.
Not impossible, you understand. But difficult.
It is one thing to advance a case against independence. It is another, entirely, to be depicted as standing out against the people choosing.
Folk tend to like being empowered.
Mr Salmond knows all that - and so Mr Salmond is out to be Mr Reasonable when it comes to his referendum.
You don't like asking about independence? Well, then, put in the option of your Calman Commission proposals.
As I have written before, he won't exactly weep buckets if his Referendum Bill is blocked.
He would use it as a tactical issue at the next Holyrood election.
There's another, more immediate tactical problem for Mr Salmond's opponents.
They say that they aren't entirely against the concept of a referendum. It's largely about timing.
Not now. Economy in crisis. Too disruptive. Wait. Defer.
In which case, why pursue the Calman agenda so enthusiastically and urgently? That involves, does it not, substantial change including fiscal transfer.
It is sufficiently substantial, at least, for the business organisation, the CBI, to warn against it.
Why the hurry, then, from those who are so utterly resiled against an independence referendum? Now, I understand. Independence is rather different from Calmanised devolution. I get the concept.
I simply say again that it seems to me to make it rather more difficult, intellectually, for Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Tories to be so against Mr Salmond preparing a plebiscite when they are eagerly pursuing a constitutional agenda of their own.
Especially when he is now prepared to absorb their option.
In response to Mr Salmond's remarks today, the comments are coruscating.
It is, apparently, a "cynical attempt by the SNP to play politics". (Author: the Tories.)
Or it is "another red herring". (Labour). Or it is a "pointless waste of taxpayers money" to have a referendum. (LibDems)
All of which may or may not be true. I know not the species of fish involved but I feel sure that the leader of a political party is, wittingly or otherwise, engaged in politics.
However, it still does not answer the underlying point. For a democratic, elected politician, it is a tricky thing to have to advance a case against a popular choice, against a referendum.
Our opposition leaders at Holyrood plainly feel they have the stomach for the fight, the chutzpah. I shall watch with growing fascination. |
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Aventinian
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Who says Calman will be implemented in a hurry? It seems to me that it won't even be implemented by the current government!
Anyway, to shy away from opposing referendums because the public have got it into their heads that such things are some sort of good in themselves is cowardice. I will happily condemn the referendum.
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Dave Coull
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| Aventinian wrote: | | Who says Calman will be implemented in a hurry? |
I think the answer to that is, members of the Labour Party, including Labour MSPs. What they are saying, or hinting at, or implying, probably isn't true, but, nevertheless, it does appear to Brian Taylor, and to myself, that's what they are suggesting. | Aventinian wrote: | | to shy away from opposing referendums because the public have got it into their heads that such things are some sort of good in themselves is cowardice. |
But not all members of the Labour Party, or of the Liberal Democrats, or of the Conservative Party, are as fanatically opposed to all referendums, as a matter of principle, as yourself, Av. Some of them take a more pragmatic view. It depends. And when Brian Taylor says | Quote: | | it is a tricky thing to have to advance a case against a popular choice, against a referendum. Our opposition leaders at Holyrood plainly feel they have the stomach for the fight, the chutzpah. |
Interesting. Note that Brian Taylor specifies that it is the LEADERS of these political parties who appear to him, at present, to have the chutzpah for this. He does NOT suggest that all of their MSPs share in this chutzpah. | Quote: | | I shall watch with growing fascination. |
It sounds to me like this astute professional political commentator remains to be convinced that they really will, not just abstain, but actually vote AGAINST the referendum bill.
To some extent, Brian Taylor appears to share my own attitude on this. I have been saying for some time that it remains to be seen what will happen. A week is a long time in politics, we are talking about a vote in the Scottish Parliament which is still more than half a year away, and, despite all the bluster from Ian Grey, Scott Tavish, etc, I don't think even they can be absolutely certain, today, what their MSPs will do on that day.
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Stevie
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Alex S. is the most astute politician in UK politics and has been since the 1980s (T. Blair not excepted).
He puts his party in a strong position to argue that people vote SNP if they want to get the chance to vote on a referendum that was denied them by Labour and the LibDems.
They don't call him 'Smart Alex' for nothing.
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Shagpile
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| Bravehand wrote: | Alex S. is the most astute politician in UK politics and has been since the 1980s (T. Blair not excepted).
He puts his party in a strong position to argue that people vote SNP if they want to get the chance to vote on a referendum that was denied them by Labour and the LibDems.
They don't call him 'Smart Alex' for nothing. |
Basic honesty appeals to the electorate IMHO. Pity Labour and the Southern Torys don't see it that way.
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