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Reluctant Hero

Crewe by-election

The Tories are looking for their first by-election gain since 1982.  This comment from Miliband had me scratching my head when I thought about it.

Quote:
We have got to get Britain through the economic difficulties it faces and we have got to go out and fight for what we believe in.


The whole problem with New Labour is nobody knows what they stand for anymore and that is why they will get hammered on Thursday.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7406957.stm

Tories target 'extraordinary' win  
The Conservatives are "pulling out all the stops" to win Thursday's Crewe and Nantwich by-election, shadow home secretary David Davis has told the BBC.

Polls suggest a first by-election gain since 1982 is possible - Mr Davis said a win would be "quite extraordinary".

Labour's Harriet Harman said there was no point in "second guessing" the result but admitted their class-based campaign was not the "most positive".

She said it was designed to boost their candidate, not demonise the Tory one.

Her comments on the BBC's Politics Show came after fellow Labour minister, Ed Miliband, defended the class-based attacks as "typical" of the stunts and "adventurous ways of campaigning" seen in by-elections.

Meanwhile, with the by-election campaign nearing its end, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg told BBC Radio 4 he thought his party could win it.

He said the Labour vote was collapsing and that people were not turning to the Conservatives after asking questions about the "substance" behind their "rhetoric".

Mr Davis told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show: "We have got a 7,000 majority to overturn.

"We haven't won a by-election from Labour in 30 years. But we are pulling out all the stops."

Asked about the broader political picture, and Mr Brown's difficulties, Mr Davis said he had been surprised.

"I was the Jeremiah in the Tory party. I said, 'watch this man, be careful, he's dangerous'. And for the first three months it looked like I was right.

"But actually the number of unforced errors he has made has been quite extraordinary in truth - quite extraordinary."

 We have got to get Britain through the economic difficulties it faces and we have got to go out and fight for what we believe in

Ed Miliband
Cabinet office minister


In full: By-election candidates

Mr Davis was speaking after an ICM poll for the News of the World suggested that 45% of people in Crewe and Nantwich were planning to vote Conservative, with 37% for Labour.

Meanwhile a national YouGov poll for the Sunday Times put the Conservatives on 45%, with Labour on 25% and the Liberal Democrats on 18%.

Cabinet Office minister Ed Miliband said that the polls were bad, but insisted that Labour could turn them round.

Unique MP

He told Sky's Adam Boulton: "We have got to get Britain through the economic difficulties it faces and we have got to go out and fight for what we believe in.

"I am confident that if we do that, we can turn round the opinion polls."

Ministers and shadow ministers are expected to keep up their visits to the constituency this week ahead of voting.

Mr Miliband insisted Labour had fought a good campaign, saying: "Our central campaign in Crewe and Nantwich is about Gwyneth Dunwoody being a unique MP and Tamsin Dunwoody (her daughter) being the best person to take forward Gwyneth's legacy."

Edward Timpson will fight the seat for the Conservatives, while Elizabeth Shenton will stand for the Liberal Democrats. In all there are ten candidates.

At the 2005 General Election Gwyneth Dunwoody was elected with 48.8% of the vote. The Conservatives came second with 32.6% of votes. The Lib Dems came third with 18.6% of votes.
Holebender

Quote:
Meanwhile, with the by-election campaign nearing its end, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg told BBC Radio 4 he thought his party could win it.


Quote:
Meanwhile a national YouGov poll for the Sunday Times put the Conservatives on 45%, with Labour on 25% and the Liberal Democrats on 18%.


More LibDem fantasy; it's a two-horse race between us and that other lot who you don't like anyway. Vote for us, it's the only way to beat that other lot. Truth and the LibDems are complete strangers to each other.
William_Cleland

You can only look on in awe and admire the breathtaking levels of their mendacity and deviousness sometimes, though. A story I always enjoyed was how back in the 80s when there were plans for a new bridge over the Don in Aberdeen between Bridge of Don and Tillydrone, their Focus leaflets in Bridge of Don were all about the Lib Dem campaign to get the bridge built, while on the Tillydrone side it was all about the fierce Lib Dem opposition to it. Smile
Blackleaf

It's not a two-horse race.  It's a one-horse race.  The Tories will win at a canter.

And Labour annoyed me by getting a coupe of campaigners to dress up as toffs - with top hats and suits - to try and put the public off voting for the "Tory toff."

It's childish and it just won't wash with the public - as Labour find out when the Tories destroy them in the bi-election.
Red Justice

Blackleaf wrote:
It's not a two-horse race.  It's a one-horse race.  The Tories will win at a canter.

And Labour annoyed me by getting a coupe of campaigners to dress up as toffs - with top hats and suits - to try and put the public off voting for the "Tory toff."

It's childish and it just won't wash with the public - as Labour find out when the Tories destroy them in the bi-election.


Yeah and if we get a an English Tory government after the next general election the SNP would like that and I wont!

By-elections will not determine necessarily the Westminster result. The Tories need to turn around a few previous results.

I think the Tories may win this one but remember the socialists in Scotland will not go away should the Tories march to power down south!
Aventinian

Blackleaf wrote:
And Labour annoyed me by getting a coupe of campaigners to dress up as toffs - with top hats and suits - to try and put the public off voting for the "Tory toff."

It's childish and it just won't wash with the public - as Labour find out when the Tories destroy them in the bi-election.


It was absolutely pathetic, and they were rightly destroyed.
Aventinian

Red Justice wrote:
Yeah and if we get a an English Tory government after the next general election the SNP would like that and I wont!


I don't see why the SNP should like that at all. A dynamic, popular and resolutely pro-Union Prime Minister in office, a clear Tory alternative to both Labour and the SNP presenting itself once again in Scotland, and a party in government that will be far less willing to tolerate their nationalist flights of fancy.

I think Alex Salmond will be positively quaking in his boots. The present state of the Labour Government is the best thing that has ever happened to him.

Quote:
I think the Tories may win this one but remember the socialists in Scotland will not go away should the Tories march to power down south!


They will not go away by any means, they'll just continue being politically insignificant.
Red Justice

Aventinian wrote:
Red Justice wrote:
Yeah and if we get a an English Tory government after the next general election the SNP would like that and I wont!


I don't see why the SNP should like that at all. A dynamic, popular and resolutely pro-Union Prime Minister in office, a clear Tory alternative to both Labour and the SNP presenting itself once again in Scotland, and a party in government that will be far less willing to tolerate their nationalist flights of fancy.

You miss the point it may be what voters down south want but not dynamic and popular to voters in Scotland.

I think Alex Salmond will be positively quaking in his boots. The present state of the Labour Government is the best thing that has ever happened to him.

And a Tory victory at the next election? No voters mandate to govern from Westminster in Scotland.  All the Tories require to do is win seats in the North of England to sufficiently form a government. And rule Scotland from London. The SNP will be hoping for a Tory government as the gradualists will likely exploit the constitutional crisis (ie: No electoral mandate for Westminster rule in Scotland).

Mr Cameron will need to be visiting a few "Scottish aunties" in a failed bid to win over the working class voters and ordinary Scots I hate to tell you that and spoil your  premature celebrations
Quote:
I think the Tories may win this one but remember the socialists in Scotland will not go away should the Tories march to power down south!


They will not go away by any means, they'll just continue being politically insignificant.


Bring on a Tory government if you dare it will lead to greater support for socialist policies among the Scottish public. The Tories will likely try to be more right wing than New Labour if that is possible.

When the dust at the party settles realise that you cannot overestimate the Tories ability to be ever acceptable to Scots.
Reluctant Hero

Wonder if we will see a challenge to Gordon Brown in the near future as a lot of Labour backbenchers start to realise that they will be out of a job in two years time.
Scott2006

Crewe and Nantwich 1997-2008
--May 01 1997-----------June 07 2001-----------May 05 2005-------------May 22 2008
Lab 29,460 (58.2155%) 22,556 (54.2903%) 21,240 (48.8444%) 12,679 (30.5532%)
Con 13,662 (26.9973%) 12,650 (30.4474%) 14,162 (32.5675%) 20,539 (49.4939%)
LibD 5,940 (11.7379%) 5,595 (13.4666%)   8,083 (18.5880%) 6,040 (14.5549%)
Ref 1,543 (3.0491%)
UKIP------------------746 (1.7955%)-------------------------------------922 (2.2217%)
Majority 15,798 (31.2182%) 9,906 (23.8428%) 7,078 (16.2768%) 7,860 (18.9406%)
TotalVote 50,605----------------41,547-------------43,485-----------41,498
Pip

I think Labour's fortunes depend on whether they keep Brown as leader or not. I don't remember so much hostility towards a Prime Minister, even under Major. There've been a few Labour MPs reassuring us that no plot to unseat Brown exists - which presumably means that there is one.

I still see Cameron as a bit of lightweight, and while it's clear why he doesn't reveal too many policies, it would be helpful to know what the Conservatives actually stand for. Not that it makes a blind bit of difference where I live; we'd elect a hat-stand if it wore a blue-rosette, as Alan B'Astard had it.
Reluctant Hero

Yes but who would take over from Brown.  All the ambitious Labour Mps within the party would not touch the leadership with a barge-poll at the moment because they know they are onto a hiding at the next election.

I am in the same postion as you Pip.  The constituency I live in is the safest Westminster seat in Scotland, but it is for Labour instead of the Tories.
azzuri

Labour clearly can't see it though, they're on the inside looking out.

As much as I hate GB, I'm actually beginning to feel sorry for him. He just keeps making one wrong decision after another, and clearly believes he's making the right decisions.

Still, I'll have a wee drink when his arse is booted out of no.10! Very Happy
Pip

Miliband might be a likely candidate for a takeover. But Labour are in a bit of a predicament. Tragedy really.
Aventinian

Red Justice wrote:
You miss the point it may be what voters down south want but not dynamic and popular to voters in Scotland.


They'll not end up the largest party, but I'm willing to wager their support will increase.

Quote:
And a Tory victory at the next election? No voters mandate to govern from Westminster in Scotland.  


Nonsense. The Tories would have a perfect mandate to govern the county, having won most of the seats and, quite probably, a plurality of the votes.

It's called democracy.

Quote:
And rule Scotland from London.


Being the capital city, and all that...

Quote:
The SNP will be hoping for a Tory government as the gradualists will likely exploit the constitutional crisis (ie: No electoral mandate for Westminster rule in Scotland).


If that's a constitutional crisis, you'd better inform the Northern Irish - they must've been having a far more massive constitutional crisis for a good 80 years now.

Quote:
Bring on a Tory government if you dare it will lead to greater support for socialist policies among the Scottish public. The Tories will likely try to be more right wing than New Labour if that is possible.


Of course I dare - I'll be supporting it actively.

Socialism is dead, my good man. Dead and buried.
Aventinian

Reluctant Hero wrote:
Wonder if we will see a challenge to Gordon Brown in the near future as a lot of Labour backbenchers start to realise that they will be out of a job in two years time.


From what I've heard from Labour supporters I know, there is a feeling in the party that firstly there is nobody else to rally around - no obvious potential new prime minister - and more significantly, a change of leadership would simply make the party look like it was imploding.

Personally, I think they might do well to accept an implosion, rather than slowly nail yet more nails into their coffin.
Aventinian

azzuri wrote:
Still, I'll have a wee drink when his arse is booted out of no.10! Very Happy


You'll be celebrating the Tories getting into power? Jolly good!

Pip wrote:
Miliband might be a likely candidate for a takeover. But Labour are in a bit of a predicament. Tragedy really.


He'll be leader one day, but taking it now would be "doing a Hague".
azzuri

Aventinian wrote:
azzuri wrote:
Still, I'll have a wee drink when his arse is booted out of no.10! Very Happy


You'll be celebrating the Tories getting into power? Jolly good!


Lesser of 2 evils as far as I'm concerned. You underestimate my pure hatred of the Labour party...
Red Justice

With all due respect azzuri I worry that Cameron's Tories in power could be as right wing if not more than New Labour.

We also are dealing with a devil we do not know enough about. Thatcherism with a human face??

Yes I want to see Labour wiped out in England they deserve that but the Tories should have no mandate to rule in Scotland.
macnumpty

Frankly I view the choice between Labour and the Tories in the same way I'd view being able to choose between being shot or being stabbed. Neither is all that palatable.

But Labour are completely out of ideas and their "The Tory guy's a toff whereas our girl is an unemployed single mum who just happens to be the late MP's daughter and is only unemployed because the voters of Preseli Pembrokeshire booted her out of the Welsh Assembly last year" campaign was the proof of that. The fact that the Tory candidate's father owns a chain of shoe repair shops is no reason to vote Labour.

If the Tories can come up with anything - just one thing - between now and 2010, they'll have one more idea than Labour, contribute more to political discourse than Labour and be more deserving to hold office than Labour.
Pip

Labour are sticking with GB for the moment according to this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7419033.stm

From my perspective the best thing that can (realistically) happen is a Conservative victory in 2010. In the short term we'll get English votes on English laws (if they make good on their promises and if it proves workable). Whether the spectre of Thacherist indifference still haunts the Scottish electorate remains to be seen. Maggie seems to have made an even more lasting impression in Scotland than in the parts of Northern England that were gutted during her government.

Of all the party leaders in the Scottish Parliament, barring Mr Salmon, Annabell Goldie seems the best by a very large margin. Maybe because the best people in Labour and the Lib Dems go to Westminster, but the Tories don't really have that option.
Neil

Brown's great strength is that there is nobody else in the party who looks capable. Milipede would clearly love it but understands nothing. His major policy positions have been more Green taxes to solve the global warming which is increasingly dificult to believe in & more making sure the bins only get cleared fortnightly which only improves environmentalistic bio-diversity in the rodent population. These are not likely to big vote winners.

Brown at least understands that socialism was popular when it was about improving the lot of the working man & knows enough economics to say that, since the size of the economy is not fixed by God, you don't make the poor richer by squeezing the rich.
Red Justice

Pip wrote:
Labour are sticking with GB for the moment according to this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7419033.stm

From my perspective the best thing that can (realistically) happen is a Conservative victory in 2010. In the short term we'll get English votes on English laws (if they make good on their promises and if it proves workable). Whether the spectre of Thacherist indifference still haunts the Scottish electorate remains to be seen. Maggie seems to have made an even more lasting impression in Scotland than in the parts of Northern England that were gutted during her government.

Of all the party leaders in the Scottish Parliament, barring Mr Salmon, Annabell Goldie seems the best by a very large margin. Maybe because the best people in Labour and the Lib Dems go to Westminster, but the Tories don't really have that option.


Well I hope we get independence if faced with more years of a Tory government. I think the spectre of Thatcherism would haunt the Scottish people Pip by way of the West Lothian question whereby Scotland votes Labour and SNP by large and middle England votes Tory for Tory policies.  I think Cameron is a sheep in wolf's clothing who will perhaps be visiting his Scottish auntie more often.

I am a socialist and have little faith in reresentative democracy but having the PR system works better in Scotland. I also think we have better politicians in Scotland than Westminster. For example the potential for the social democratic SNP to steal socialist policies. I would wiish then that Solidarity could break through in the future and get socialist MSP's elected back into Holyrood. Having Socialists and Greens in parliament is more healthy for democracy as a counter balance. The two-party system in Westminster has never served the countries of the UK well. Certainly true Thatcher and the Tories left a lasting impression on Scotland a legacy that resulted in Holyrood and an unstoppable process for more democracy for Scotland.
Red Justice

Spelling mistake above should read 'representative democracy'
Holebender

Why, as a socialist, do you have little faith in representative democracy? Is it because you realise that socialism will always be a minority ideology?
agentmancuso

Red Justice wrote:
I am a socialist and have little faith in repesentative democracy

Logical enough. Democracy is anathema to Socialism.

Quote:
I would wiish then that Solidarity could break through in the future and get socialist MSP's elected back into Holyrood.

Better get on the phone to the tooth fairy while you're at it.
Neil

Socialists believe in the dictatorship of the proletariat but since most of the proletariat don't want dictatorship the burden falls on those few in the vanguard like Red & Sheriden who recognise how much worse off than North Korea we are.

This is why it always ends up in the dictatorship of girning numpties like them or Pol Pot who couldn't run a piss up in a brewery without subsidy.

All those who suggest that the obvious inability to run such a piss up should be some barrier to getting the job of dictator are enemies of the proletariat - which is why socialism repeatedly ends up with terror.

In such circumstances there is something to be said for those wanting to man the barricades being unable to do so because of their bad backs.
Red Justice

agentmancuso wrote:
Red Justice wrote:
I am a socialist and have little faith in repesentative democracy

Logical enough. Democracy is anathema to Socialism.

Quote:
I would wiish then that Solidarity could break through in the future and get socialist MSP's elected back into Holyrood.

Better get on the phone to the tooth fairy while you're at it.


Not true have you ever head of socialist democracy?

Bourgeois representative democracy lacks checks and balances guaranteed by a more demoratic socialist model for a political system.

With representative democracy politicians are over paid and not greatly accountable when in office. Low turn out of voters ensure politicians are not truly representative of the people.

Socialist democracy is more direct democracy with workers participation in all areas of local and national government.

Reactionary conservatism and social democracy creates social divisions in society between those who own the wealth and those in the lower class forced to sell their labour-power.
agentmancuso

Red Justice wrote:
Not true have you ever head of socialist democracy?


Sure, that's what they had in Albania.
Red Justice

agentmancuso wrote:
Red Justice wrote:
Not true have you ever head of socialist democracy?


Sure, that's what they had in Albania.


Albania is not Scotland.

Scottish socialism is best ie: what it says on the tin Very Happy
William_Cleland

Sweden.
Neil

Red's phrase about "checks & balances" being essentiasl to "socialist" democracy is rubbish. It is a phrase central to US constitutional theory & taken by them from British.

It is key to what is called liberal democracy in that there are constitutional limits to prevent a pure democratic majority overriding people's rights (for example 51% voting to solve their problems by destroying the Jews or the rich. The rights of individuals against "classes" is liberalism - socialism is about the reverse.

As such it is the exact antithesis of "socialist democracy", which demands a complete absence of checks & balances as their absence in the socialist regimes of Stalin, Hitler, North Korea & Pol Pot adequately prove.
Red Justice

I was meaning socialist democracy in terms of a form of direct democracy that ensures workers participation in society at all levels. I was not using the phrase "checks and balances" in the context that students of politics in the West use. If you look at Wikipedia and search for council communism it is one idea of socialism I am interested in but definitely not Stalinism. As for destroying the rich if the democracy of the people are willing to redistribute the wealth from the property owning classes and give a share to the poorer classes who sell their labour-power then that is real democracy.
Red Justice

What is essential to socialism and true democracy is preventing a priveledged elite from securing power against the workers interests.  We have a neo-liberal New Labour government that is as exploitative if not more than the Tories. Liberal democracy secures rights for elites rather than the working classes. I could of explained myself better by simply talking in terms of having some checks against bourgeois democracy by having a new political system. However in today's reality Scottish socialists are able to struggle within representative democracy and a PR system more sucessfully in Scotland than others elsewhere (in say England) while confined to that poitical system.

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