Archive for Our Scotland - www.our-scotland.org Scottish Politics Discussion Forum / Messageboard - Dedicated to online discussion about Scottish Politics and an Independent Scotland, as well as Scottish Society today. We also have a section dedicated to Banter, Sport and Recommended Sites.
 



       Our Scotland - www.our-scotland.org Forum Index -> Global Politics
Reluctant Hero

EU Elections

The EU elections are 3 weeks away and today saw the launch of the Lib Dem campaign in Scotland.  I wonder how much of a hammering the Labour vote will take and given the furore over MP expenses, I wonder if this will have any effect on turnout?

Here are the Scottish candidates.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8040047.stm
Alasdair

I think we should be spoiling our ballots come this election, a wee note perhaps:

"MP's?  Not at my expense"
Stevie

The curious thing is, the Tories have 15% of the vote.  That's an increase.  Surprising,  a possible renewal of Tory fortunes?

What do you guys think - I say guys because on the various politics sites I visit, hardly any women contribute... maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe you lot are sitting at home in cotton dresses doing your knitting(probably are anyway).
agentmancuso

Re: EU Elections

Reluctant Hero wrote:
I wonder how much of a hammering the Labour vote will take and given the furore over MP expenses,


Odds on that Labour will finish second. But the Lib Dems will be even more worried, as they could conceivably lose their only MEP.
agentmancuso

Bravehand wrote:
The curious thing is, the Tories have 15% of the vote.  That's an increase.  Surprising,  a possible renewal of Tory fortunes?


At the last EU elections the Conservatives polled 17.8% in Scotland. There is a very good chance they will beat that this time.

In England, they'll win by a country mile.
Dave Coull

Our postie today delivered leaflets from UKIP and the BNP.

The BNP leaflet headlines a NEW Battle of Britain and has a photo of a Spitfire. Ironic considering many of their Nazi supporters would either have been on the other side or interned as enemy sympathisers during the original Battle of Britain.

Their leaflet comes from an address in London and makes no mention of Scotland at all.

The UKIP leaflet does at least say it is from "UKIP Scotland" and gives an address in Fife, but apart from that it appears to have little relevance to Scotland. UKIP also chooses to hark back to the Second World War, with a big photo of Winston Churchill giving the V for Victory sign. There is an irony about their leaflet also, one of which they probably aren't aware. During the dark days of the Second World War, Churchill came up with a plan for a complete Union of Britain and France. Of course this plan would have to wait for its completion until after the war, but he wanted to start the ball rolling. General de Gaulle, leader of the Free French forces with headquarters in London, said NON to Churchill's plan for a total Union of Britain and France.
Stevie

Quote:
At the last EU elections the Conservatives polled 17.8% in Scotland. There is a very good chance they will beat that this time.


If the Tories are gaining, who is losing votes to the Tories?
Rinty

If the tories have 15% and got 17.8% last time, how is that "gaining"?
Alasdair

Dave Coull wrote:
Our postie today delivered leaflets from UKIP and the BNP.


We got these too, used them to light the fire Very Happy

We also got one from the Labour party as well though for "south of scotland" which I initially mistook for an SNP leaflet given the number of times it's mentioned and the lack of the Labour logo being emblazened across it ... it was full of tosh as well, more about what the SNP are doing at Holyrood (or at least what Labour would like us to believe) and less about what Labour are doing/going to do.  And virtually sod all about Europe?!
agentmancuso

Rinty wrote:
If the tories have 15% and got 17.8% last time, how is that "gaining"?


I don't know where Mr Bravehand got his 15% from. But it's a fair bet that the Tories will do a bit better than that this time around.
Stevie

I'm afraid the depth of my knowledge is I heard it somewhere.   So clearly unreliable.  Evidently then the Tories are on the rise and which party then will benefit and which will lose?

Funny old place Scotland for backing a winner.
Reluctant Hero

Alasdair wrote:
We also got one from the Labour party as well though for "south of scotland" which I initially mistook for an SNP leaflet given the number of times it's mentioned and the lack of the Labour logo being emblazened across it ... it was full of tosh as well, more about what the SNP are doing at Holyrood (or at least what Labour would like us to believe) and less about what Labour are doing/going to do.  And virtually sod all about Europe?!


It was the same with the Election Broadcast tonight.  It was basically about how it was all down to Labour that they managed to secure 8,000 new aprentices in Scotland.  Wow!!  What has that got to do with the European Elections.

Have Labour not learned the lessons from the election in 2007.  Part of the reason they lost was because they had a totally negative campaign.  People want to hear about what a Party will do if they are elected in the forthcoming elections.  They don't want to hear about what the opposition will do (particularly on issues that are nothing to do with the election).
agentmancuso

Bravehand wrote:
 Evidently then the Tories are on the rise and which party then will benefit and which will lose?


There seems to be some truth in the idea that voters are less inclined to vote tactically in EU elections, so the long dormant natural Conservative vote will crawl out of its post-Thatcher hiding place. The Tories will probably benefit from the general UK wide swing in their favour, if to a lesser extent.
The Lib Dems will lose votes to the Tories and the SNP.
The Lithgae Jambo

I was rather amused to read in the UKIP leaflet the praise it was giving to that most un-British feature of the EP electoral system, proportional representation.

Quote:
The voting system used to elect Britain's representatives to the European Parliament is different from that used to elect a government in Westminster, so YOUR vote really does count !


So it's not as undemocratic as they've been making out it is......
The Lithgae Jambo

Dave Coull wrote:
There is an irony about their leaflet also, one of which they probably aren't aware. During the dark days of the Second World War, Churchill came up with a plan for a complete Union of Britain and France. Of course this plan would have to wait for its completion until after the war, but he wanted to start the ball rolling. General de Gaulle, leader of the Free French forces with headquarters in London, said NON to Churchill's plan for a total Union of Britain and France.


There's an even greater irony given that in the post-war period Churchill was also calling for a United States of Europe.
Stevie

Quote:
The Lib Dems will lose votes to the Tories and the SNP.


You don't think Labour will suffer?

I agree but it's curious that the labour vote is swinging back and fourth between Labour and Tory.
Rinty

Every poll I have seen suggests that the Lib Dems will be the big beneficiaries of the expenses fiasco, I still dont see any polling evidence to suggest that the tories share of the vote will rise in Scoland.
Dave Coull

agentmancuso wrote:
The Lib Dems will lose votes to the Tories and the SNP.
That certainly looked true until very recently, but now there's the question of who will be most tainted by fiddling their expenses. The Lib Dems might keep the votes of some folk who were tempted to vote Tory but don't like paying for dredging  the moats around Tory MPs' mansions.
Bravehand wrote:
You don't think Labour will suffer?
Who said anything about Labour not suffering? Personally, yes, I think they will suffer
Bravehand wrote:
it's curious that the labour vote is swinging back and fourth between Labour and Tory.
There are parts of England where such a swing might be true. It isn't true of Scotland. In Scotland, disillusioned Tories don't vote labour, and disillusioned Labourites don't vote Tory.

A feeling of disillusion with politicians in general might have the effect of keeping turnout very low, but it might also benefit the "minor" parties. In England, that might boost votes for UKIP or the BNP. But it might also help the Greens in England. And neither UKIP nor the BNP are likely to benefit in Scotland.
Stevie

Thanks Am, Rinty and DC.  Still have one of my 'feelings' that the Tories are on a marked rise.  My feelings have the curious nature of often being not far off.  Anyway, I would like to hear what you guys think people you know in general think about the question posed.
magister ludi

I believe once the dust settles a little over the Westminster expenses and  the media turn their attention to the European elections then the question of how much MEPs get paid and how generous their expenses are will surface.  Any MEPs looking to be re-elected may have some questions to answer about what they do with their allowances.

The Tax Payers Alliance and the Times both tried taking up the story in Feb this year, but it didn't really seem to go anywhere.  However with the current taste for the blood of politicians the story may well get a new lease of life.


http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Euro_MP_expenses_%27can_reach_%C2%A31m%27


"Euro MPs' expenses and pensions are so lavish that they can earn as much as £1m (1.13m euros) on top of their salaries over their five-year term in parliament, a British campaign group says.

The TaxPayers' Alliance (TPA) said its research also showed that British MEPs would get a 47% increase in their take-home pay after June's European elections.

The TPA has published an internal report - the Galvin Report - on abuse of MEPs' expenses, which had been kept secret by the European Parliament but was partially leaked last year.

Every member could "easily" save more than £1m from their expenses and pension benefits over a five-year term at the European Parliament, according to the TPA.

This includes a subsistence allowance of 117,000 euros (£104,000), staff allowance of 489,840 euros, office expenses of 243,120 euros, travel expenses of 60,000 euros and an accrued pension of 394,000 euros.


This does not include the MEP salary. This varies between countries but amounts to £63,291 for a British MEP, which is set to increase to £73,584 after the European Parliament elections in June 2009. "




http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Secret_report_reveals_how_MEPs_make_millions

"A LEAKED internal report has revealed systematic abuses by Euro MPs of parliamentary allowances that enable them to pocket more than £1m in profits from a single five-year term.....

The auditor’s confidential report, suppressed by the Brussels parliament, discloses the extraordinary frauds used by MEPs to siphon off staff allowances funded by taxpayers.

It shows that some claimed for paying assistants of whom no record exists, awarded them bonuses of up to 1½ times annual salary and diverted public money into front companies.

An investigation into the abuses of staff allowances worth up to £182,000 a year — many of which are paid by MEPs to members of their family — was delivered in January last year but was not published. "

note: my emphasis
Rinty

It only inceases after the election becuase of the exchange rate.  From now on MEPS all get 7,000eu per month.  At the current rate this will be a rise on the british MP wage but if the exchange rate changes we wont see the euro scpetics calling for a pay rise for MEPs.

Over recent years the exchange rate that has applied would have meant that the new pay would mean no rise for british MEPs.  If we ever get to a 2-1 exchange rate, it will be a salary of 42k.
Aventinian

The Lithgae Jambo wrote:
There's an even greater irony given that in the post-war period Churchill was also calling for a United States of Europe.


Albeit one not including the United Kingdom.
Reluctant Hero

On Question Time tonight it said that 75% of the legislation discussed in the House of Commons was already decided in Brussels.  Is this really the case?
Reluctant Hero

According to the Guardian, a quarter of voters are likely to vote for someone other than the main parties in the EU elections.

Quote:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politic...ay/22/icm-poll-european-elections


All this rubbish about "oh, you have to vote for the main parties or else you will let the BNP in" is absolute crap.  There may be one or two isloated cases where the BNP get in, but generally the electorate is much more intelligent than the media and MPs are giving them credit for.
Reluctant Hero

It looks like Labour are heading for a polling metldown next Thursday   Very Happy

Latest poll has them at only 16%, behind UKIP.  Could this be the end of Brown?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6390069.ece
Stevie

Anybody got any poll results for Scotland?


"end of Brown?"   Well normally yes, but this is the New (let's all go down with ship) Labour Party - anything's possible, but at 16% yes.
Reluctant Hero

The latest Labour blunder  Laughing

http://www.sundayherald.com/news/...dnews/display.var.2511516.0.0.php
Reluctant Hero

The latest poll by YouGov for European elections gives some Scottish analysis:

SNP 29%
Labour 24%
Lib Dem 13%
Tories 13%
Green 7%
UKIP 5%

http://www.yougov.co.uk/archives/pdf/DT-results_27-29MAY.pdf
Stevie

Thank you reluctant but heroic one.

I buy that poll, looks about right.

Anyone any idea how these results translates into seats?

Poll taken before Darling's fiddling.

Imagine the polls for Labour if they are tanked in the European elections.

Nothing makes voters shy away from you like electoral failure

(excepting : going to war for no reason; knifing a prime minister in the back and stealing his job; causing economic chaos; jobs allowed to be outsourced; fiddling your expenses...)
Reluctant Hero

Can't remember if this has been posted anywhere else, but this little questionaire thing helps you consider which party you are most aligned to in the European elections.

http://www.euprofiler.eu/area/scot/

Thanks to SNP Tactical Voting for posting it on his blog.

I plotted almost directly on top of the Green Party on the graph!  Don't think they will be getting my vote though.
agentmancuso

A candidate from Ireland, apparently:

Reluctant Hero

Can you believe how stupid some people are?

They failed to see UKIP on the ballot paper because they didn't unfold it properly  Laughing

Just shows the average mentality of a UKIP voter  Laughing

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/...d_In_European_And_Local_Elections
Stevie

Cabinet rising star James Purnell quits cabinet, saying Brown should resign.

Brown is desperate to stay.

He really puts himself first and foremost.

       Our Scotland - www.our-scotland.org Forum Index -> Global Politics
Page 1 of 1
Create your own free forum | Buy a domain to use with your forum
Our Scotland Hit Counter Scottish Top Site - Topsites Our Scotland Forums Critical Acclaim ~ Politically Progressive Top Sites View Site Stats Scottish Politics