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First election year poll has SNP on course for victory

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HAMISH MACDONELL SCOTTISH POLITICAL EDITOR

THE SNP is still leading the race for Holyrood, according to the first poll of the New Year published today.

A YouGov internet poll for Channel 4 News found the Nationalists were ahead of Labour on both the constituency and regional votes for the parliament.
Click to learn more...

The SNP received 33 per cent on the constituency vote to Labour's 31 per cent, and 33 per cent on the regional vote, five points ahead of Labour on 28 per cent. Translated into seats, the poll would give the SNP 44 seats to Labour's 39, a rise of 17 for the Nationalists and a fall of 11 for Labour.

However, with the Liberal Democrats languishing on 14 per cent and 11 per cent in the vote and with only an estimated 17 seats, the SNP would have to get support from both the Lib Dems and the Greens to form an administration.

The poll was not good news for the Conservatives, giving them 14 per cent and 15 per cent on the two votes, with a predicted return of 18 seats, which would be no change from their current position.

The Greens are also predicted to stay stable on seven seats, but the SSP, with only 1 per cent, would lose all its MSPs if the poll were replicated on election day.

Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, hailed the poll as "this is the best possible start to the year for the SNP and Scotland".

But a Labour spokesman said: "This puts Labour in a stronger position than the last SNP poll by the same polling organisation. What this poll shows is that voters face a clear choice in May, schools with Labour or separation with the SNP."

The poll took the opinions of 1,061 Scots over four days. The interviews were done by e-mail with respondents who agreed to be questioned by YouGov.


http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=47162007

Very Happy
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Quote:
But a Labour spokesman said: "This puts Labour in a stronger position than the last SNP poll by the same polling organisation. What this poll shows is that voters face a clear choice in May, schools with Labour or separation with the SNP."


These people are unbelievable! completely and utterly bonkers.
Lothian Sky

Schools? Na, independence supporters dont have kids.
Hospitals? Na, independence supporters are immune to ill health.
I'll just have the decades of "isolation and separation", thanks! Rolling Eyes
macnumpty

Well, I ran the figures through my own model and I get the SNP on 45 to Labour's 40. The Tories hold firm on 18 but I don't get the same LibDem collapse: they stay on 17 according to my results. The Greens stay on 7, while Dennis Canavan and Margo MacDonald look like returning to Holyrood. The SSP appear to be heading for wipeout.

So it's looking like either an SNP/LibDem + Green agreement, or a Labour/LibDem + Tory one.
macnumpty

Oh, and I ran the Westminster poll through the mincer for fits and giggles, and I got Labour on 37, the SNP on 9, the Tories on 6 and the LibDems on 6. And Michael Martin, just being there.
SouthernJock

macnumpty wrote:


So it's looking like either an SNP/LibDem + Green agreement, or a Labour/LibDem + Tory one.


Thats interesting so a possible SNP government, as I dont see Labour/LibDem plus Tory coalition, not unless they start issuing Ice Skates in Hell!
macnumpty

Well, the Tories did say they'd offer 'principled opposition' to a minority Labour Executive, but vote for McConnell as FM if it stopped the SNP from getting in. The LibDem involvement complicates matters but Unionism could provide the glue here.
Economist

Anyone else see the report on Channel 4 news, on this? Interesting dynamic with Salmond and Douglas Alexander on the discussion (Salmond, of course, wiped the floor with him). In the report, they interviewed Nicol Stephen stating he was categorically against any referendum whatsoever - but wasn't prepared to say whether he'd negotiate on that. Also there was Murdo Fraser and Cathy Jamieson for the rest of the Unionist position.

It might be on their website later. You can watch their lunchtime report on it, which is on their front page still.

http://www.channel4.com/news/index.html

Actual article:

http://www.channel4.com/news/spec...ial-reports-storypage.jsp?id=4328
macnumpty

I saw that... I smell a LibDem climbdown. Wink
George

Thanks for the links Economist.

What I am beginning to notice about the SNP is that they are going for plain speaking. Alexander's answers were nothing more than gibberish at times. I think that this is a good ploy by the SNP if they are to convince traditional Labour voters to change.
azzuri

Lothian Sky wrote:
Schools? Na, independence supporters dont have kids.
Hospitals? Na, independence supporters are immune to ill health.
I'll just have the decades of "isolation and separation", thanks! Rolling Eyes


First thing I've laughed out loud at on this forum for a while! Cheers LS Laughing Laughing
macnumpty

Funny thing is, I've come down with fewer colds etc since I joined the SNP, so there may be something in Point 2... Very Happy
Aventinian

macnumpty wrote:
Well, the Tories did say they'd offer 'principled opposition' to a minority Labour Executive, but vote for McConnell as FM if it stopped the SNP from getting in. The LibDem involvement complicates matters but Unionism could provide the glue here.


Even that is unlikely, I imagine. A lot of traditional Labour voters would hate to see them having anything to do with the Tories. Being propped up by them would be very embarrassing.

As I've said before, my idea outcome would be a Lib Dem-Conservative-Green coalition, but I doubt that will be possible following the election. Say the SNP and Labour came out roughly neck-and-neck at just over 30 seats apiece, such a coalition could sweep in and take the first ministership even on the basis of their present status in the SP - although, of course, it would be a minority administration with more than two parties: perhaps this would lead to instability.
Babygael

As you guys get caught up with the deep intricacies of politics, at the end of the day, Scots will awake and remember that they have a country of their own, with a great legeacy and bursting with potential.

SNP? Greens? Labour? Tories Lib dems?? How about the land of the scots trying to have a life in peace and prosperity party? Living out their natural Scottishness and not feeling like its something second class about it?

MUST I be engerlish to be somebody??

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