H1N1 (Swine) Flu beginning to spread

Reluctant Hero · H1N1 (Swine) Flu beginning to spread

The Swine flu has begun to spread from individual to individual who haven't been to Mexico.

The media have gone totally overboard saying that we could all die etc etc. But how worried should we be? Or will it all go the same way as Bird Flu did a couple of years ago?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8029202.stm

Dave Coull

It might be worth having a look at that sometimes interesting newspaper "The Independent" tomorrow. Apparently their front page, and several pages inside, is on the theme "Health Warning: Global Panic or Media Hype?"

agentmancuso

Dave Coull

What scientists know about swine flu

by Emma Wilkinson
Health reporter, BBC News

Preliminary analysis of the swine flu virus suggests it is a fairly mild strain, scientists say.

It is believed that a further mutation would be needed in order for the H1N1 virus to cause the mass deaths that have been estimated by some.

But at this point, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy how the virus will continue to evolve.

UK experts at the National Institute for Medical Research outlined on Friday the work they are due to start on samples of the virus sent from the US.

The research, being done at the World Influenza Centre in Mill Hill, will be vital for working out the structure of the virus, where it came from, how quickly it is capable of spreading and its potential to cause illness.

Structure

Analysis done so far suggests what they are dealing with is a mild virus and nowhere near as dangerous as the H5N1 avian flu strain that has caused scientists so much concern over the past decade.

Influenza A viruses are classified according to two proteins on the outer surface of the virus - hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N).

The swine flu strain is a H1N1 virus, the same type as seasonal flu which circulates throughout the world every year, and kills roughly 0.1% of those infected or higher in an epidemic year.

Professor Wendy Barclay, chair in influenza virology at Imperial College London says initial indications suggest there is nothing about the genetic make-up of the new virus which is a cause for particular concern.

The key to its potential lies largely in the H1 protein.

"There are two aspects - one is which receptors the virus tends to bind to and what we see is that it is binding to the upper respiratory tract rather than deep in the lungs."

When a flu virus binds to the upper respiratory tract, it tends to cause mild illness but can be easily spread as people cough and sneeze, Professor Barclay explains.

If a virus binds further down in the lungs, it tends to cause much more severe illness, as in the case of the H5N1 avian flu virus which has caused concern in recent years.

"With the H1 gene we also look at the cleavage site," she adds.

"The virus has to be cut into two pieces to be active and it uses an enzyme in the host to do that.

"Most influenza viruses are restricted to the respiratory tract because they use enzymes in the lungs.

"But some, like H5 viruses can evolve to cut into two pieces outside the lungs, so they can replicate outside the respiratory tract."

Analysis

These initial indications are largely guesswork from looking at the genetic sequence of the virus and comparing that to what is known from work on other influenza viruses.

It will take weeks and months of biological analysis to properly get a handle on the potential of the H1N1 virus.

The team at Mill Hill, one of four World Health Organisation's centres for influenza research will be working in close collaboration with the Health Protection Agency who are carrying out testing in the UK, and their findings will also feed into the development of a potential vaccine.

Soon, the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute in Cambridge will begin the genetic sequencing of the virus and will also be monitoring any mutations or changes in how virulent it is.

However, there is one other reassuring aspect about what is known so far.

That is there seems to be nothing unusual as yet in another protein in the centre of the virus, called NS1, which is linked to the strength of the immune response the virus produces.

In some more pathogenic viruses, it is this NS1 protein which initiates a "cytokine storm", a particularly severe immune reaction that can be fatal in even healthy young people.

Predictions

Scientists have also played down concerns that the milder H1N1 virus, could combine with the more dangerous H5N1 avian flu virus, causing a super virus that has the ability to both spread easily between humans and cause severe illness.

This is unlikely - or at least just as unlikely as it ever was and the H5N1 virus has been around for a decade without combining with normal seasonal flu.

Professor Jonathan Ball, an expert in molecular virology at the University of Nottingham said: "The chance of swine H1N1 combining with H5N1 is as likely as any other strain recombining.

"What this outbreak does highlight is how difficult it is to predict new pandemic strains.

"Many people suspected that H5N1 was the most likely candidate for the next pandemic strain, but now it appears that this was a mistake - but that's not to say H5N1 or another reassortment containing parts of H5N1 may not happen in the future.

"That's the trouble - you can't predict."

Dave Coull

I have just watched a news report from Mexico on the American channel CNN. According to a CNN reporter, there was a May Day demonstration in Mexico City in which protesters maintained that the Mexican government was hugely exaggerating the number of fatalities from the flu virus, quite deliberately, to discourage people from campaigning in the elections due next month, which the government fears it is likely to lose. Deliberately exaggerating a health scare in order to undermine the democratic will of the people? Surely politicians wouldn't do that - would they? Mind you, it WOULD explain the strange phenomenon that this flu seems far more dangerous in Mexico than elsewhere.

jamesieboy

Coincidentally the share prices of the pharmaceutical companies, especially those that produce the antivirals, has rocketed after a period of decline.

That would maybe explain the hype.

Dave Coull

A couple of days ago we were being given the impression that the number of folk who had died of swine flu in Mexico alone was nearing 200. Then the Mexican authorities revised that downwards to just over 100. Today's "Independent" says the combined global death total is SEVENTEEN. Sixteen in Mexico and one in the USA. But how can we be certain it was the flu that killed them? Yes, these seventeen did test positive for flu virus. But folk who actually die from the flu often have other serious health problems pre-existing before they got the flu. How can we be sure it was actually the flu that killed them and not those other conditions? Normal, everyday flu kills 35,000 people EVERY YEAR in the USA - most of them folk who are elderly, or vulnerable, or homeless, or poor, or all of these. To get this into perspective, the Independent On Sunday helpfully provides us with the average number of people in the UK who die from having a stroke EVERY WEEK: 1,288. Now, maybe this flu pandemic will still turn out to be serious. Maybe a lot of folk will die. Maybe I will be one of them. We don't know. What we DO know is that there was a demonstration in Mexico City by folk who say that their government has been exaggerating the epidemic in order to disrupt the opposition campaigning in next month's Mexican general election, which the government was widely expected to lose.

Stevie

By definition it's a pandemic, yes. But there won't be millions of dead because after the SARS outbreak that could've killed 100s of millions COBRA got its act together.

Yes, there will be a devastating viral menace in the future but this isn't it. Bravo all the news networks for ceaselessly covering this swine flu outbreak as if the end of the world is nigh.
SkyNews stayed on it when there wasn't a story and(... let me check) yes still beating the drum of death but less so... oh they go on, "there are now 27 new cases".

Dear Lord drop it already, the reason in my view that more Mexicans died is because a lot of Mexicans were already infected before they realised there was a swine flu outbreak. The virus does not have a huge immediate mortality rate even if it is potentially deadly(be assured I wouldn't want to catch it but we now live in a post SARS environment).

Never fear one day there will be death on biblical proportions but this a no-story story.

However, Autumn, winter could see this virus breaking out again and at that time of year there may be deaths; at the moment it's all a lot of bollocks.

Lord Pitsligo

Dave Coull

Lord Pitsligo

Reluctant Hero

The first death of someone with Swine Flu has been confirmed in Scotland. Although the patient is said to have had other health issues.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8099832.stm

mairead

Can anyone remember when there was a summer in which there was no flu virus or summer cold anywhere in the country?.
I can't, and I think it's mass panic brought on by stupid media reporting.
I, like a few other folks caught a flu like virus last summer. Flu is always around somewhere in this country and every winter, hundreds die from it.
Most of the cases in Dunoon, my nearest town and allegedly the worst place in Scotland for it, have been so mild that many of the folks who caught swine flu were unaware of it at first, other than they thought they had a cold.
Makes good headline news though I suppose.

Lord Pitsligo

magister ludi

Is it a cold or is it 'flu?

Apply the £5 test........100% accuracy and validity .

You're going home.
You think you've got the 'flu.
You pull a hanky out your pocket, a fiver comes out and flutters off on the breeze.
You chase after it: you've got a cold.
You look at it wistfully, but can't be arsed: you've got the 'flu.

Morph

The BBC ran an article about 2 weeks ago in which the author put a case forward for 'catching swine flu'.

Im sorry i cant find the article but the jist was that catching the less dangerous form at the moment may place you at an advantage should a worse mutation appear, due to your previous exposure to a weaker strain.

However i havent really had the will to try out this theory yet Very Happy

magister ludi

Conspiracy theory anyone......?

http://www.naturalnews.com/026503_pandemic_swine_flu_bioterrorism.html

Reluctant Hero

A 19 year old man has been the fourth person in the UK to die of swine flu.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/8132570.stm

Dave Coull

Alasdair

It's quite sensible really, unless you happen to have serious under-lying problems of course, given that it has already been suggested that come the autumn/winter it's possible that a more virulent and deadly strain may emerge.

Given that this particular strain is somewhat less dangerous than the 'usual suspect' it seems that such parties may be considered downright sensible!

We suspect we've had it run through our house, but hell, who knows!

Reluctant Hero

The first healthy person with no underlying health problems has died in England.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/essex/8145389.stm

Lord Pitsligo

Its on track to do a good impression of the first wave in 1918. Lets hope that's all it does.

Morph

Why would you want a re-run of a disease that killed millions of people in 1918?

Lord Pitsligo

Reluctant Hero

Two more confirmed dead today. One a GP and a six year old girl.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8148162.stm

Alasdair

Pytheas

Folks, if you want to protect yourselves, then go and get yourselves Vitamin D3 pills and Sambucol.

Taken preventatively, these will keep you free of the lurgy.

Whatever you do, though, do not take the pscyho-tropic and utterly useless Tamiflu and also avoid the forthcoming vaccine, which is laced with neuro-toxin mercury and the immuno-suppressant Squalene (one of the suspected causes of Gulf War Syndrome).

Holebender

What did Nostradamus tell us about the swine flu? Does one of his quatrains address the psychotropic nature of Tamiflu?

Just out of curiosity, would you mind listing your medical qualifications so that we can all be confident we are accepting medical advice from a bona fide professional.

Lord Pitsligo

My girlfriend's struck down with the dreaded piggie sniffles now, she's been bed bound for almost a week. It wasn't all bad though, when she had a high temperature, she made a lovely hot water bottle at night Very Happy

I'm feeling slightly shivery tonight though Sad

Aventinian

Dave Coull

Holebender

It's the new wave, I tell you!

mairead

New Wave? It's never actually gone away. Just not getting the headlines anymore.

Stevie

I hope everybody gets it.

Because I'm evil?

No, because, it's not a very deadly strain and could end up protecting us from a truly malevolent virus and save tens of millions of lives.

Reluctant Hero

A person in Scotland has died from Swine Flu without having underlying problems. The first person to do so.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/8250739.stm

Reluctant Hero

The Swine Flu vaccination has been launched on the same day as another person dies from Swine Flu.

How safe is the vaccine though? Has it been properly tested?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8317068.stm

Stevie

I seriously doubt the French are going to have a wave despite the fact that that seems an absurd thing to say because this flu is so contagious but no-one seems to suffering yet over here.

Stevie

Alasdair

It was being reported on Radio Scotland yesterday that the German Chancellor and other senior german officials were being given a variant of the vaccine, one with certan ingredients removed.

Stevie

The French (despite all their handshake greetings and endless hello /goodbye kissing don't seem to be developing a flu outbreak yet.

The only explanation I can reason is that the French do wash their hands a lot. I wash my hands 6 - 10 tomes a day. Since I've been washing my hands this often I've not had a serous infection.