ICM poll 28 February

October1974 · ICM poll 28 February

A new poll will be published tomorrow in the Scotsman. SNP leading in the consituency and in the list vote. I saw it on the Ian Dale blog. SNP ahead by 5 and 4%

Smile

IF Convenor

Anything on the independence referendum, or has the Scotsman dropped that?

Economist

46% (52%) for independence 44% (48%) against, with 10% undecided. Apparently that is a big drop in support for independence according to the North British Person, but still the most favoured constitutional option according to polls.

Rinty · g

The problem is that this poll still gives the Lib/Lab pact enough seats to form an executive (64 seats) unless the SNP persuaded the Libs to join them. Even if the SNP went with a minority govt. The combined Lib/Lab vote could/would defeat them at every turn.

Still, I think these polls are asked over a period of time some weeks ago so things may have improved since then.

Economist

They'd need 65 seats to have a full majority, but 64 seats is probably enough to form an Executive, even though it is a minority (just). But still doable, though, they could rely on the support of one or two of the independents to get their programme through without too much problems.

Rinty · n

No, 64 is a majority as only 126 MSPs count (three are presiding officer and deputy presiding officers).

Actually, if it turns out like this we could see the presiding officers jobs go to independents or small parties. By rights it would be Labours turn as we have had a Lib and an SNP PO since parliament started in 1999. Either that or the SNP, Labour and LIbs would have one each.

Interesting times.

Economist

But, the Deputy Presiding Officers do count, because they do vote - and the neutral Presiding Officer also does in the event of tied votes.

Rinty · f

But they dont count as part of party groups or towards a majority coalition. They, in theory, are neutral. Any coalition with 64 seats will be asked to form a govt if the largest party cant.

Economist

Economist

And in terms of any coalition or alliance, I think the Tories will support the Lib/Labs coalition on any crucial votes in the Parliament in a case of "Better the Unionist devil you know, than the Nationalist devil you don't." My money is still on that as the most likely outcome of the election. I would very, very much hope to be wrong on that, though.

SouthernJock

Economist

I'm only going by what was published in the North British Person this morning:

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=311452007

The poll you've linked is the January one, and it wasn't asked then (which is strange) but apparently for the February one they did. It really does make you wonder what they're up to. Rolling Eyes

SouthernJock

IF Convenor

I think they wait a few days to allow the people who commissioned the poll (The Hootsmon) to make some mileage out of it first. They'll put it online soon.

notbritish

Rinty

Both Solidarity and the SSP have a clear commitment to the referendum as soon as possible, the more of their MSPs in the mix if we need coalition govt the better now, or the referendum could slip off the agenda until 2011.

azzuri

October1974

Not British has fallen for the anti-SNP propaganda coming from SOS. Expect more concocted headlines between now and polling day. The SNP Spring Conference will nail this lie on the head next weekend.