If this is right, I ought to do the Lottery this weekend...

macnumpty · If this is right, I ought to do the Lottery this weekend...

Back when I looked at a possible route to Independence, and the key political events in the intervening period, I suggested that the split between the Scottish Tories and the UK Party would form a part of that, happening after the UK General Election.

Turns out, it might happen sooner than that: Mr. Eugenides has picked up this story from Conservative Home, in which he quotes an upcoming report from Fraser Nelson, suggesting that the initiative is going to come from David Cameron.

Given the Mundell Memo, the phrase 'In the old days, children like you were left to perish on windswept crags' springs to mind!

But should it? Well, given that the MSPs and Candidates will be the same, probably. That said, the relation between this new party and its rivals could be fascinating: the Tories are presently isolated, with no one listening to them, as their own film all but admits!

The new group might be able to reach out, and the SNP wouldn't have any rules against associating with it. Now, the new group might yet go down the hardcore Unionist route yet, and if it didn't, this would still doubtless come too late to affect the Coalition negotiations after the election (thus also ruling out SNP/Con deals at the Council level). But they would surely have a little more leverage in future negotiations, and it might, just might, give them the chance to start afresh, and have a little more influence in Scottish politics.

This is worth watching.

Reluctant Hero

Can I have a loan of that crystal ball after you macnumpty Very Happy

I think any split from the UK Party if it was going to work would have to be absolute. Any hint of any association with the UK Party and the separation won't do anything to benefit the new Scottish party.

I read somewhere that if the new Scottish Party were to gain any MP's, then it would vote with its "sister" Tory party at Westminster. This link may still be too much for some people to stomach.

macnumpty

Not until I've picked my football results for the rest of the season. Wink

It could do them good at future Holyrood and Local elections. At Westminster elections it would give a future Tory government extra legitimacy if they had some sort of links with at least part of Scotland but if all they're going to do is prop up an English Tory administration and manifesto, then what's the point of having a separate party with separate policies?

One other thing: the usual comparisons that come out for this move are the UUP pre-72, the Scottish Unionists pre-MacMillan and the CDU/CSU in Germany. The problem is, the UUP had control of Stormont pretty much all the way from partition to prorogation, the old Scottish Unionists managed to get more than half the vote at one point, and the CSU pretty much own Bavaria. They are/were all strong parties. That does not apply to the Scottish Tories now.