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macnumpty
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Labour: we're driving Scots to independenceAccording to Scotland on Sunday, it's not the Union we're against, just its current government. I'd not usually be surprised at them making that assertion, but it seems to come from Labour sources:
http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=69812007
| Quote: | GROWING support for an independent Scotland is largely the result of dissatisfaction with Labour rather than the Union, the party's internal polling has revealed.
A day after Gordon Brown warned that the UK's identity was being threatened by an "opportunist group of nationalists", it has emerged his own party's unpopularity is fuelling the swing towards the SNP. Labour insiders say their research backs other polls, which show around half of all Scots approved of an independent Scotland.
But most of those questioned said their disapproval of Prime Minister Tony Blair and First Minister Jack McConnell was the key factor pushing them towards independence, rather than growing disenchantment with the Union.
The finding will concern ministers as they prepare to lead celebrations of the 300th anniversary of Scotland passing the Act of Union.
Brown underlined the dangers threatening Britain yesterday, when he told the Fabian Society that some groups were "playing fast and loose" with the Union. But a senior member of Labour's campaign team last night conceded the problem was closer to home.
"We have been getting a kicking in the polls and it appears to have had a knock-on effect on the Union," he said. "It's no secret that people are expressing disillusion with the government... hopefully it will diminish as our position in the opinion polls improves."
The source added: "This appears to be a party issue in the sense that, when people are asked simply whether they support the idea of Scotland independent within Europe, only about 20% say yes."
"That suggests the SNP position is hollow. We have been successful in preventing the SNP getting any momentum. As that continues, support for the Union should recover."
The positioning of the Union quandary at the heart of the election struggle underlines grave concerns among the Labour elite that control of Scotland and the devolution settlement is slipping out of their hands. Recent opinion polls have shown Labour at least two points behind the SNP, who are on course to become the largest party in Holyrood.
SNP leader Alex Salmond last night attempted to turn the screw further by deriding Brown's intervention -
saying he "could not tolerate the idea of Scotland slipping out of Labour's control just at the point he wants to move into No 10".
Brown, who is expected to take over as prime minister when Blair stands down this year, reinforced the importance of the UK's "shared values" at the start of the Fabians' conference. He would become the first prime minister from a Scottish constituency for more than 40 years. "It is very important to recognise that Britishness and Britain itself is not based on ethnicity and race," said Brown.
"It is founded on shared values: a commitment to liberty for all; a commitment to social responsibility shown by all and a commitment to fairness to all."
His speech was an assault on the SNP and "English nationalists", including those campaigning for an English parliament, or to exclude Scottish MPs from parliamentary votes on issues that did not concern Scotland.
Brown said the idea of "English votes for English laws" would pull the Union apart. He attacked modern Conservatives for embracing "anti-Unionist positions" in collusion with nationalists - contrasting them with Lady Thatcher's determined support for the Union. |
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Aventinian
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Well duh. You don't think the predicted increase in SNP support has anything to do with the Labour Government being incredibly unpopular?
It certainly wasn't the debating skills of SNP MSPs which swung it anyway...
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SLG
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Absolutely, but it's not just this government. Folk were unhappy before Labour got in, but wanted to give them a chance. They've not taken it. If you reject the Tories and Labour, where do you go? I can't see England ever rejecting the two party state anytime soon which means that we're also stuck with it. If you want a real change it's got to be through independence IMO.
If we were being governed well the SNP wouldn't be making the gains in the polls that we're seeing.
In saying that, even when Labour were more popular, I think independence would have won out in a referendum.
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Aventinian
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| SLG wrote: | | Absolutely, but it's not just this government. Folk were unhappy before Labour got in, but wanted to give them a chance. |
In 1997? I'd disagree, I think there was a lot of enthusiasm for New Labour, not just disssatisfaction with John Major.
| Quote: | | They've not taken it. If you reject the Tories and Labour, where do you go? I can't see England ever rejecting the two party state anytime soon which means that we're also stuck with it. If you want a real change it's got to be through independence IMO. |
I agree somewhat actually.
PR, as I've said, would solve many of the UK Parliament's problems. A UK Government with the Liberals somewhere in coalition would make a dramatic difference, and I imagine would do something to secure the supreme apathy which is affecting us.
| Quote: | | If we were being governed well the SNP wouldn't be making the gains in the polls that we're seeing. |
If people had wanted good government, they shouldn't have voted Labour 
... apologies for going all party political, but it's true.
| Quote: | | In saying that, even when Labour were more popular, I think independence would have won out in a referendum. |
Well of course I don't think it would even now after a decent debate in the run up to a referendum. But surely going on the basis of the polls you quote, there has certainly been a rise in people saying that they'd consider the idea in the past couple of years - just as Tony Blair is becoming almost a figure of pity.
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SLG
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| Aventinian wrote: | | SLG wrote: | | Absolutely, but it's not just this government. Folk were unhappy before Labour got in, but wanted to give them a chance. |
In 1997? I'd disagree, I think there was a lot of enthusiasm for New Labour, not just disssatisfaction with John Major. |
That's my point. Folk were unhappy with the Tories. Gave the opposition in Westminster a go, and very quickly became unhappy with them. Where can they go now other than on to independence where a different form of politics could prevail?
| Aventinian wrote: | | Quote: | | They've not taken it. If you reject the Tories and Labour, where do you go? I can't see England ever rejecting the two party state anytime soon which means that we're also stuck with it. If you want a real change it's got to be through independence IMO. |
I agree somewhat actually.
PR, as I've said, would solve many of the UK Parliament's problems. A UK Government with the Liberals somewhere in coalition would make a dramatic difference, and I imagine would do something to secure the supreme apathy which is affecting us. |
That seems to me to be the only way to get PR. And it seems to be relying on chance somewhat. What happens if the Lib Dems don't end up in a position to make demands? That might never happen. When do we get PR for Westminster in that case?
| Aventinian wrote: | | Quote: | | If we were being governed well the SNP wouldn't be making the gains in the polls that we're seeing. |
If people had wanted good government, they shouldn't have voted Labour
... apologies for going all party political, but it's true. |
Aye, but they were the only real alternative in Westminster.
| Aventinian wrote: | | Quote: | | In saying that, even when Labour were more popular, I think independence would have won out in a referendum. |
Well of course I don't think it would even now after a decent debate in the run up to a referendum. But surely going on the basis of the polls you quote, there has certainly been a rise in people saying that they'd consider the idea in the past couple of years - just as Tony Blair is becoming almost a figure of pity. |
Ok, who's going to turn it around from a UK point of view then? I can't see Brown saving the Union as he wishes. In fact he is the cause of much of the anti-Union feeling in England. I can't see Cameron restoring the Scottish electorate's faith in the Union. Will Brown's replacement in the Labour party be able to do it?
I know Blair is unpopular, but I can't see where Labour or the Tories are going to go wrt Scotland.
I still would argue that there is much more to it than that though. Holyrood becoming established. The changing world. Your average Scot taking advantage of cheap flights, seeing a bit more of the world and becoming more outward looking. Etc etc.
I think a really popular Westminster PM would halt progress towards independence, but only for so long as they are around. It would just be a stop-gap.
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Avatar
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| Quote: | | In 1997? I'd disagree, I think there was a lot of enthusiasm for New Labour, not just disssatisfaction with John Major. |
I would tend to agree, although its hard to tell, definately amongst the media there was alot of buzz with regards to Labour. Of course its unlikely there will be any buzz in the media with regards to the SNP, we'll probably have headlines like "24 hours to save the Union".
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IF Convenor
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One thing to keep in mind is that support for the SNP does not equal support for independence. Support for independence has been over 50% for at least the past decade. Support for the SNP is rising as support for Labour is slumping. These two are clearly related but, I believe, separate from support for independence.
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Mctosh45
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1997 Is the only time I haven't voted S.N.P. Much to my shame I voted yes.......you guessed it ......Labour, so yes there was a lot of enthusiasm for New Labour, not at all surprising after 18 years of the Tories.
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