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Mctosh45 · Latest Poll

Vital gains forecast for SNP in swing from Labour
HAMISH MACDONELL
SCOTTISH POLITICAL EDITOR (hmacdonell@scotsman.com)
Labour lose ground to SNP in pre-election poll Majority of Scots now favour independence according to figures But shift will not be enough to beat overall Labour vote Key quote "The result of this poll further confirms the fact that Labour is floundering in Scotland while the momentum is now clearly with the SNP." - Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP's Holyrood leader

Story in full
ALEX Salmond received a massive pre-election boost today with a new opinion poll showing a clear majority of Scots favour independence, and illustrating a significant swing from Labour to the SNP.

The Scotsman ICM poll found 51 per cent now favoured full independence with only 39 per cent against - the biggest level of support for separatism for eight years.

The poll also forecasts major gains for the SNP at next year's Holyrood elections with the party on course to win enough seats to form Britain's first nationalist-led government.

But it predicts that, despite a dramatic fall in the Labour vote, the SNP will not emerge as Scotland's largest party and will need the co-operation of both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens to form a 'rainbow alliance' in the Scottish Executive.

The ICM poll - the first in a series of monthly polls commissioned by The Scotsman in the run-up to next year's crucial Holyrood elections - shows that the SNP has kept up the momentum it generated during the summer.

The results suggest a swing of between 7 and 8 per cent to the Nationalists and a drop of between 1 per cent and 5 per cent in Labour support.

According to the poll, the SNP would win more votes than Labour on the first, constituency, vote - 32 per cent to 30 per cent - and the two parties would be tied on 28 per cent for the second, list, vote.

This would give the SNP 37 seats, up ten from 2003, and Labour 41, down nine from 2003.

With only four seats between the two main parties, the future of the Scottish Executive would rest with the Liberal Democrats who are on course to get 25 seats, up eight from 2003.

Such a result would put the Liberal Democrats in an immensely strong bargaining position. They would be able to demand three or four senior Cabinet positions as well as the implementation of major chunks of Lib Dem policy - whoever they went into coalition with.

The Liberal Democrats would be able to choose to go into coalition again with Labour, the two parties could combine to form an Executive with a majority of three.

Or the Liberal Democrats could decide that Labour was now so tarnished, as a result of its losses at the polls, to go into coalition with the SNP. However, the two parties would be three seats short of an overall majority and they would need to secure the official support of the Greens to form a government.

Such a scenario would give power to the Greens who would be able to demand at least one major policy commitment from the coalition, possibly a raft of new Green taxes or a major change in direction for transport policy.

The two parties who will be most disappointed with the poll are the Conservatives and the Scottish Socialists.

The poll confirms reports from the Tories' own internal research which suggests that the party is making no progress at all in Scotland, despite the galvanising effect that David Cameron is having on the Tory vote south of the border.

Today's poll indicates that the Tories will lose one seat, down from 18 to 17, and will lose votes, down 2 per cent on the constituencies and down 1 per cent on the regional lists.

The troubles which have torn the SSP apart have also harmed its chances with the party down to just 4 per cent on both votes, a level of popular support which is likely to wipe out most of the gains the party made in 2003.

Tommy Sheridan's new party, Solidarity, has done enough to register just 1 per cent of the vote, not nearly enough to guarantee the party a seat next May but that position may well change over the next few months.

But it is the level of support for independence which will give Mr Salmond, the SNP leader, most encouragement and concern Labour leaders at the same time.

ICM has been polling on this question since 1998 and this is the first time since then support for independence has topped 50 per cent. Indeed, this is the first time for six years that ICM has recorded a margin of any sort in favour of independence.

Both Mr Salmond and Jack McConnell appear determined to make independence a key theme in the run-up to next May's election but, according to this poll, that tactic does appear to be favouring Mr Salmond.

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP's Holyrood leader, said: "The result of this poll further confirms the fact that Labour is floundering in Scotland while the momentum is now clearly with the SNP.

"In addition, this poll shows that Labour's tired scaremongering tactics are simply not working in the face of the SNP's positive case for independence."

But Duncan McNeil, chair of the Labour group of MSPs in the Scottish Parliament, insisted that SNP support would decline when the voters realised the choice facing them next May.

He said: "The choice voters will face is between investment in schools and the NHS with Labour, or separation and isolation with the nationalists. It is difficult to see how levels of support for the SNP can remain at this level."

Nicol Stephen, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, said: "This is very good news for the Liberal Democrats. Following our spectacular victory in Dunfermline, it is clear that we are the only party with momentum in Scotland.

"Support for the Liberal Democrats is growing, not least in new parts of Scotland and especially among the young."

Annabel Goldie, the Scottish Conservative leader, claimed that her party would still do well, despite the poll's findings.

She said: "We know that in May, more Scottish Conservative councillors and MSPs will be elected. Holyrood will remain as a parliament of minority parties but our stronger voice will allow more Conservative values and policies to influence how the country is governed."

And she added: "More Scottish Conservative MSPs means a better parliament."

Mark Ruskell, the election campaign director for the Greens, said: "Far from losing seats, this poll, which doubles our vote compared to a similar poll at the same stage before the 2003 election, tells us that we are gaining ground and we fully expect to increase our MSPs."

The detailed findings will also prove to be fascinating reading for party managers.

They show big support for independence among the young and the working class and scepticism about independence among middle class voters and pensioners.

However, the poll also found that only 46 per cent of those asked were certain to vote - a figure which suggests that apathy will play an important part next May and the success of each party to get its own vote out will be crucial to the outcome.

A handful of seats hold key to election
NEXT year's Holyrood election is, it seems, on a knife-edge. The SNP is marginally ahead of Labour in the constituency vote, while the two parties are tied on the vital regional list vote. But the SNP needs to edge further ahead of Labour before Alex Salmond can begin to look forward with any confidence to the prospect of occupying Bute House.

The SNP's vote is much more evenly distributed across Scotland than Labour's. As a result, it finds it harder to win constituency seats - a deficit that proves too large to be reversed when the Holyrood regional "top-up" list seats are subsequently divvied out. Unless this pattern changes next May, then even the figures in our poll would point to the nationalists still being some four seats behind Labour.

That handful of seats is vital. Labour might currently be heading for a severe bruising - with just 41 seats, it would have nine fewer than now. But coupled with the Liberal Democrats' projected 25 seats, the current Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition would still have an overall majority of three. In contrast, even if the Liberal Democrat leader, Nicol Stephen, were minded to do a deal with Alex Salmond, the two parties would, between them, still be three seats short of a majority.

Moreover, our poll underlines just how much of a personal risk the SNP leader has taken in opting to fight the Gordon seat next year. The swing to the SNP in our poll is not big enough for the party to capture this seat, currently held by the Liberal Democrats. However, it is big enough for the party to capture two other constituencies in the North-east: Aberdeen Central and Dundee West.

Gaining those would put the SNP on no less than six seats across the North-east - too many for it to be entitled to any additional list seats. So, although Mr Salmond is top of his party's list in the North-east, that might not be enough to ensure he gets back in to Holyrood should he fail to win in Gordon.

Mr Salmond must be also wondering why his party's standing is no higher than 30 per cent, given more than half of Scots would, apparently, vote for independence in a referendum. Such levels of support for independence are not unprecedented; much the same level of support was registered in the summer and early autumn of 1998 when ICM asked exactly the same question as in today's poll. But then, the SNP was closer to 40 per cent support than 30 per cent. Mr Salmond is apparently finding it harder now than he did eight years ago to convert apparent support for independence into a vote for his party. It is a deficit he can ill afford.

• John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University.

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Despite all that negative drivel at the end of this article - It truely is time - I cant see there being much voter apathy in the seperatist camp with everything to play for, its far more likely to be firmly routed in with the unionists and their no-hoper parties. As long as the idiots like Fergus ewing and mike russel keep a lid on it, the lib dems turn out to be as democratic as they claim and the ssp/solidarity crew pick up the pace we should be on our way. Still 6months to go a few more screw ups from Labour wouldn't go amiss either.

Hendry

Yabadaba doo!

Another poll saying 57% would vote YES in an independence referendum.

But more importantly, I think we have broken through the British Establishment attempts to 'bury' these results.

If they are coming out they must realise the game's a bogey regarding keeping them 'hidden'.

Also the higher result is probably due to greater awareness of these results.

As Independence First has been virtually alone in pointing out, most people answering questions in those single issue independence polls have done so under the misapprehension that YES was a MINORITY (30%?) position. Once everyone knows it is actually a majority, the predicted YES result will, I am confident, exceed 60%.

At that level, for example, Nichol Stevens could easily face rebellion in the LibDems on a future referendum Bill with 60% plus indicated support for independence.
Either that or they drop the word Democrat from their party name.

Of course the article is trying to imply that these results have been brought to public attention before. Not true, except by IF.

The true bias is given where they say:

"ICM has been polling on this question since 1998 and this is the first time since then support for independence has topped 50 per cent. Indeed, this is the first time for six years that ICM has recorded a margin of any sort in favour of independence. "

Which implies that ICM have been getting NO results in polls for the last 6 years and states that this is the first 50% plus result (even though at the top of the article they concede that similar results had been obtained 8 years ago??).

The truth is

1) The ICM polls have on several occasions 'topped 50 per cent' in the absolute response and nearly always in 'predicted YES' terms. (I have only found two occasions when the predicted YES vote was marginally less than 50%).

2) ICM have simply not been asking the question in the last 6 years.

Anyone can ascertain both these facts from simply visiting ICM's on line archive at:-

http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/reviews/polls-archive.asp

As I have done on too many occasions to enumerate.

Avatar · Labour claims poll results show voters fear the SNP

And now for some classic Labour/Lib dem nonsense

"Key quote "The people of Scotland do not want independence. Full fiscal autonomy does not exist in any other devolved country. It is nothing more than a cloak for independence." - Euan Robson of the Scottish Liberal Democrats

Story in full
LABOUR yesterday attempted to shrug off an opinion poll showing majority support for independence by claiming it was bad news for the Scottish National Party.

The poll in The Scotsman found 51 per cent of Scots in favour of independence - the first time support has passed the 50 per cent mark since 1998.
Click to learn more...

But only 32 per cent of voters were willing to vote for the SNP, the main pro-independence party, compared with 30 per cent for Labour.

And analysis of the results revealed that Alex Salmond, the SNP leader, might not win the seat he is aiming for in the next parliament because the swing towards his party is not big enough to snatch the Gordon constituency from the Liberal Democrats.

This would mean Nicola Sturgeon, his deputy, could have to lead the party after the Holyrood elections.

David Cairns, the junior Scotland Office minister, said the result proved the SNP was still an unpopular party. He said: "Apparently, 51 per cent of people say they want independence, but only 32 per cent say they are going to vote for the main party of independence.

"What is it about the SNP that is so unattractive that it has lost 20 per cent of people who say that they actually believe in the SNP's main policy?"

Mr Cairns predicted the result would motivate Scots to make the ultimate choice between independence and the Union.

Angus Robertson, the MP for Moray who is running the SNP's election campaign, admitted there was an anomaly in the results - but not the one Labour wanted. He said: "Part of that anomaly is that 45 per cent of Labour voters support independence. Independence is popular across the parties and the problem for David Cairns and the Labour Party is that it will be a popular policy among Labour voters in the months ahead."

He also claimed a stark choice between independence and the Union worked in favour of the SNP.

According to the poll, the SNP would win 37 seats in the next Scottish Parliament, up ten from 2003, and Labour would have 41, down nine.

This means the future of the Scottish Executive would lie with the Liberal Democrats, who may have to choose whether to go into coalition with Labour again or form a "rainbow" coalition with the SNP and Greens.

Yesterday, Euan Robson, convener of the Scottish Liberal Democrats,

pointed out that the SNP had never debated independence in the parliament for fear of alienating voters.

He said: "The people of Scotland do not want independence. Full fiscal autonomy does not exist in any other devolved country. It is nothing more than a cloak for independence - a concept that is becoming increasingly meaningless in the age of globalisation.

"No matter how much the SNP try to hide from it, the people of Scotland know that they [the SNP] will always put independence before health, education, crime and the environment."

The poll suggests the Tories would have 17 seats, down one on their 2003 result, while the Greens would drop two, to five.

The SSP, which scored only 4 per cent in the Scotsman poll, insisted it was still a good result after the acrimonious split with Tommy Sheridan.

Its leader, Colin Fox, said: "Tommy's decision to leave the SSP did us no good, but clearly we have bounced back."

He pointed out the SSP supported independence and was in a good position to mop up some of the pro-independence voters who would not go with the SNP.

• A public information campaign will be launched today to encourage more Scots to vote.

Through an internet site, posters and other mediums, Vote Scotland will attempt to educate young people about the new voting methods and why their vote matters.

In the last Holyrood election, just under half the population bothered to cast their vote."

How desperate are Labour becoming? burying your head in the sand or what?

Cymro

In the last Westminster elections the BBC and ITV Wales announced that a poll had Plaid Cymru regaining the Ynys Mon seat lost in 2001 to Labour. When the result came through on election day Plaid Cymru had failed to regain the seat and also lost Ceredigion which the same poll had stated Plaid would keep, comfortably. Now this wall all Plaids fault but I do think that these polls gave a false sese of security to Plaid Cymru and it's members and that is what lost the election while also giving Labour and the Lib Dems something to work towards.

So, basically I hope the SNP, and other proindependence parties don't let these polls have the same effect. The campaign should not be slowed down because of some thinking that victory is allready certain.

wisnaeme

Economist

You've just got to love some of the responses from the Labour and Tory Unionists at Westminster:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1937976,00.html

Only their careers on the Westminster gravy train is what their main motive is. After all, when we get independence they'll be out of work!

Economist

Avatar

"Is that the basis of their comments? Why do the people of Scotland elect individuals like them?"

Maybe David Mundell is right? - its a bit like an abusive relationship the more you put the people of Scotland down the quicker they come back for more - the people really need to break this cycle and its obvious to us anyway that the SNP are the only party who have a cats chance in hell of delivering us out of this union rut.

George

I saw that lickspittle Cairns the other night on Scottish Newsnight, what a hatefull a...hole. He is almost as bad as that other carreerist Tom Harris.

My mother lives in the constituency that Cairns represents and cannot recall the man ever attempting to address local issues.......some very serious indeed.

However Salmond had his measure on the programme though.

An indication of how unprincipled these Scottish Labour MP's actually are becomes apparent with the fact that Cairns is a one time priest. How can this man actually attack anyone who wanted to force a public enquiry into the bloody mess that Iraq is?

People like Cairns have no shame and should appear on a modern day 'Ragmans Role'.

October1974

Would you believe it. The same poll is now being picked up by the media in England.

This headline is telling - Scots want Independence from England.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/...cle_id=414189&in_page_id=1770

SLG

Good poll from the SNP's point of view, keeping up the momentum and remaining where they need to be come next May. I think the SNP will slip back a wee bit from the polls to the actual vote though. It it looking like a SNP/Lib/SGP coalition is on the cards though.

Will this mean a referendum though. The SNP have been talking about wanting to be the biggest party to give them genuine legitimacy in this, but this poll will give them further legitimacy on the referendum front. The most interesting result of the poll for me was the breakdown of independence support based on party voting intention. Almost half Lib Dem voters who express an opinion support independence and as we have previously seen, almost all support the principle of a referendum. This could do much to persuade the Lib Dem leadership that agreeing to a referendum won't be a vote loser.

Worth noting that the Scotsman say that this is the first polls in a series in the run up to next years elections. Although independence and the SNP are in good shape, they will be reported by the Scotsman, not on their polling, but in comparison to these results.

Kendomacaroonbar

Maol.Chaluim

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