Linlithgow prepares to end its long relationship with Labour

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" ALISON HARDIE CHIEF NEWS WRITER (ahardie@scotsman.com)

FOR years, Linlithgow was one of the many Scottish constituencies Labour could take for granted. Thanks in the main to Tam Dalyell, the West Lothian town dutifully returned a Labour member to Westminster for decades.

The same loyalty held true at the first elections for Holyrood in 1999, when Labour's Mary Mulligan became its first MSP.
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Until he retired in 2005, Mr Dalyell held his Linlithgow seat with a 54.4 per cent share of the vote. Until today's Scotsman poll, statistically speaking Linlithgow should next May be solid Labour.

But yesterday, as an autumn chill gripped the birthplace of Mary, Queen of Scots, voters appeared to be feeling distinctly lukewarm towards Labour.

People listed local complaints with councillors, a lack of trust in Labour, Gordon Brown's tax regime and the war in Iraq as issues that would affect their votes next May. Few seemed fazed by the prospect of having a Scottish National Party MSP.

As the express trains thundered overhead to and from Edinburgh and Glasgow, shoppers at the Regent Centre were sanguine about the prospect of losing the Labour connection.

Jean Geddes, 50, said: "I wouldn't be surprised if Labour lost not just in Linlithgow but the whole election. I don't feel as though they've done anything for people in Scotland.

"The Labour council here has badly let down local people.

When there were floods in the Braehead area and nearly 100 houses were affected, it was the SNP councillors who kept pressing for something to be done. I was a Labour voter all my life until that, next year I'll be voting for the SNP."

Graham Malcolm, 31, said he would be "quite happy" to see Labour kicked out in favour of the SNP.

"I'm involved in the agriculture industry and Labour just don't seem to understand the difficulties we are having to cope with. I think Alex Salmond is pretty good and I could probably trust him to take care of the agriculture industry. I am pretty sure I'll vote SNP."

Darren Wilson, 18, said: "My grandfather was a Labour councillor and my parents brought me up to support Labour, so I guess that's the way I'll be casting my vote.

"But ... despite what some people say, Labour's been good for Scotland."

His friend Jamie Gourlay, 18, disagreed, however: "I think a change would be a good thing, so I'll be voting SNP because I know they are all about Scotland."

Rachel Orr, 57,was baffled that Scottish voters had never given the SNP the chance to govern to see what they could do.

She said: "I would be quite happy to see this area going SNP.

Labour has lost touch with ordinary people and I just don't feel as though you can trust people like Tony Blair any more."

Allan Peden, 39, a product engineer from Linlithgow, said he had given his support to Labour in the past as well as the Tories and the SNP.

But he added: "

I wouldn't want to see the SNP get in because I am still too much of a sceptic about independence.

"I don't think there's anybody in the Scottish Parliament who have proved they've got what it takes to run the country if we were to go it alone."
Nationalists' poll position throws independence debate into top gear

THE SNP has a perennial problem: how to turn a temporary protest vote into solid support for independence.

The latest ICM poll published in today's Scotsman shows support for independence running at 51 per cent. This undoubtedly registers the electorate's unhappiness with Tony Blair, the Prime Minister, and its boredom with the Executive. For the Scottish economy is delivering jobs, the housing market is bullish and we've just had the best summer on record.

We've been here many times before and come back from the political abyss. All through 1998 and 1999, polls indicated that as many as 56 per cent of Scots would opt for independence, given a referendum. That mood was dissipated when the Scottish Parliament was born.

However, there is a unique element in the current situation. Our poll also indicates that support for the SNP is ahead of Labour in the constituency section for Holyrood. While we have a long way to go until May, this throws the election wide open. The tide of support for independence has coincided with the distinct possibility of an SNP government. This is a wild card we have not seen before.

Previously, Labour has been able to blunt SNP surges by dangling the bait of devolution. The SNP was sucked into the devolution debate during the 1970s and saw its Westminster strength - 11 seats - practically annihilated.

The SNP's successful recovery under Alex Salmond in the 1990s was again derailed by the advent of Holyrood.

Of course, the Nationalists can congratulate themselves that, without their efforts, Labour would never have offered a Scottish Parliament in the first place.

On the other hand, the Scottish electorate seems to like constitutional reform in bite-sized chunks, rather than the whole independence cake at one go.

On past form, Labour should try to outbid the SNP by offering more powers for Holyrood, while demonising the SNP as mad separatists (a role the SNP often embraces). But for once, none of the players is sticking to the script. Jack McConnell, the First Minister, gave a speech last week opposing new powers for Holyrood as irrelevant. The Chancellor, Gordon Brown - the great Briton - has been mealy-mouthed about laying into the Nats. And Mr Blair is helping no-one by clinging on to power.

As for the SNP, it finds itself ahead of Labour by espousing centrist policies such as being tougher on crime than Labour and cutting business taxes. Usually, the Nats try to out-left Labour by raising taxes on the middle class. And for once, the SNP is maintaining an iron discipline in the ranks, rather than squabbling in public like a sack of ferrets.

The result is that we cannot dismiss these new polls as political ephemera. The charismatic Alex Salmond as First Minister might just be the fillip to Scottish self-confidence that turns protest into independence.

Yet to capitalise on the situation, the SNP will have to do a deal with the Lib Dems to form a coalition. The parties are close on policy matters, but the Lib Dems are flatly opposed to an independence referendum. In the end, the Lib Dems - the classic party of protest - might be Labour's Trojan horse to dash the Nationalist dreams once again. "