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| True Scotsman |
Monteith wants the future of Scotland put to voteI know it's a bit late but here it is anyway Brian Monteith to put the future of Scotland too a vote.http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=995472006 Monteith wants the future of Scotland put to vote HAMISH MACDONELL A LEADING unionist MSP has called for a referendum on independence for Scotland. Brian Monteith believes Scots would reject separation from the UK, undermining the Nationalists' "raison d'être for a generation". Mr Monteith's comments coincide with a jump in support for the SNP at the polls ahead of next year's Holyrood election. The former Tory MSP said the unionist party leaders in Scotland - Jack McConnell, Nicol Stephen and Annabel Goldie - should have nothing to fear over such a poll and has called on them to unite and support it. "Alex Salmond is saying just now that if people want to do a coalition deal with him, then he wants a referendum as a price and everyone is saying 'No, no, we're not having a referendum'. "Why are unionist politicians against a referendum? I'm a unionist and I'd welcome a referendum. I think the union would win and this would cause havoc for the SNP. "I'm challenging so-called unionists to be brave and defend the union, by actually calling Alex Salmond's bluff." He said the referendum could be held after the elections next year and added voters should be given the option of choosing the union, independence or the current devolved set-up. He expected the latter position would win. Next year is the 300th anniversary of the Acts of Union, he added. "It would be entirely appropriate to ask the Scottish electorate if we should continue the arrangement or if it's time for a change - and if Scotland backs the Union the SNP can shut up shop for a generation." Quite surprised too here a staunch Unionist wanting to have a referendum on Scottish Independence. |
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| azzuri |
It's not about his politics though - the fact he's realised that the issue needs to be solved one way or another is a step in the right direction.
He knows it's an anomoly - hopefully the Conservatives will come round too. |
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| SLG |
That is a welcome attitude from Monteith. I can't see many of his fellow Unionists following his lead though. There is no excuse for any party refusing a coalition with the SNP purely on the basis of a referendum. If folk want to remain in the Union, they'll vote for it.
Does anyone know it Monteith is planning on standing as an independent next May? |
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| Aventinian |
I have mixed feelings. On one hand there is the 'stone dead' element of it, on the other hand: 1. I believe in the British constitution and representative democracy. I think referendums undermine that and are alien to our system. Which is why we've had so few in our past. 2. It starts a trend. Every time someone suggests the situation has changed there will be no moral justification for withholding one. 3. It gives a certain level of legitimacy to Nationalism, whether they win or lose. 4. There would never be agreement over standards - for example, echoing the 55% rule of the Montenegro referendum, or creating a minimum bar of all the electorate, not just those who turn out. Not to mention the date on which it is held. So like I've said, mixed opinions.
Rumour seems to have it that way. But then again, rumour always tends towards the most interesting possibility. |
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| SLG |
I think you would have a point if referenda were being used across the board. Referenda seem to have become fairly established practice in the 30 or so years on constitutional matters and I am quite happy with that.
I don't think there is any moral justification for withholding one at present, yet they do. In future, if there is a demonstrable demand for Independence, that demand should be tested. If that creates uncertainty, so be it.
How so? Scottish nationalism is already legitimate, and the referendum is just a means to an end. I was under the impression that previous UK PMs have accepted the sovereignty of the Scottish people and would respect the right of an SNP majority in the Scottish Westminster seats to begin negotiations on Independence. The referendum is just another means to express that desire by the Scottish people.
Are you saying that you don't think the Unionist side would not accept a simple majority rule based on those who participate?
I really doubt that he will get back in even if he does stand. Might take quite a few Tory votes though. |
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| Avatar |
I think there should only be a referendum on independence if the SNP win a majority in an election - otherwise we would be having referendums every so often just to make sure people still feel the same way. If you look at it from the other side of the coin - and Scotland was independent would you expect to have constant referendums on whether we join the UK or EU just to make sure public opinion hasnt changed? - uncertainty about what state your country is going to be in any given year would just be chaotic. | ||||||||||||
| azzuri |
...the difference being that the majority of people in an Independent nation would not want to actively give up it's sovereignty.
it's a source of pride and self-determination, getting on and doing the best you can for yourself and those around you - unfortunately this sort of attitude is something that Scotland lost a long time ago. It's not about 'getting on' and 'pride' but about survival for most people in modern Scotland. |
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Exactly - and if an Independent Scotland was to falter, would we just run into the arms of the EU or Uk again? - isnt that the kind of attitude (of the ruling class anyway) that led to the union in the first place? We have to have some form of stability before any move towards complete independence imo - having random referendums all over the place would work against independence - we should work towards gaining more powers for the Scottish Executive, by the time the majority of power is in the hands of the Parliament we'll be independent in all but name - then hold a referendum when theres less of a risk involved - the majority of folk I imagine will go for that. | ||||||||||||
| SLG |
Random referendums all over the place? In 300 years, the Scottish people have never been consulted on whether they wish to be part of the Union or not. There is clear evidence that something approaching a majority wish Scotland to be Independent. There is also clear evidence that a significant proportion who support Independence do not vote for the SNP.
As for after Independence, if after a couple of terms there is clear evidence that something near a majority would like the Scottish parliament to try and negotiation a new Union with England, then I think the population should be consulted on the matter. I don't see the problem with that. I have ultimate confidence that such a situation will not arise, but if that is the case, we should have a referendum, and if a majority would like to see a return to Union, we should try and negotiate one. By consulting with the population, we will never have a situation like that which led to the Union in the first place. |
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| Avatar |
"There is clear evidence that something approaching a majority wish Scotland to be Independent."
In the distant past I agree with you, im not too sure about now - certainly polls seem to be suggesting the population are moving towards wanting an independent Scotland or are at least considering voting SNP over Labour - but I think if you take the unionist votes and compare them against separatist votes - i.e SNP, SSP Greens Vs Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems (Just to consider the main parties) the unionist have a majority in parliament atm - although this may well change in next years election. "There is also clear evidence that a significant proportion who support Independence do not vote for the SNP. " what evidence? and why? - I mean I may not agree with all the SNP's ideas, but I will vote for them simply becuase they are in the best position to deliver independence. "As for after Independence, if after a couple of terms there is clear evidence that something near a majority would like the Scottish parliament to try and negotiation a new Union with England, then I think the population should be consulted on the matter. I don't see the problem with that." I agree in principle - but what after a few more terms we decide to be independent again or form a union with China or the USA - I mean its unlikely but surely we have to have some kind of stability no? "By consulting with the population, we will never have a situation like that which led to the Union in the first place" Maybe after some decent reforms to the education system, until then.. I mean alot of people are pretty stupid. |
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| SLG |
Well the most recent poll (March 2006, YouGov, though admittedly commissioned by the SNP) found 54% of those who expressed an opinion favoured Independence. This is the same poll that finds SNP support about the 30% mark. The SNP will never manage to get the entire pro-Independence vote. That's why we need a referendum.
Well, every single poll that has ever asked the question has found support for the SNP significantly trailing that of Independence. All parties gain votes from those who believe in Independence though none more so than Labour. John McAllion estimated up to 40% of Labour supporters favour Independence, other research (by McCrone I think) put the figure at about 20%. The reason for that is that not everyone who believes in Independence hold it as high enough a priority to vote for a party who they don't trust or whose other policies they don't like. For example a socialist in Glasgow might vote Labour rather than SNP despite being in favour of Independence, a banker in Edinburgh might vote Tory in the hope of tax cuts rather than the SNP despite believing in Independence. There is also blind party tribalism (especially Labour again), where if you are born into a family or community that votes in a particular way, you are more likely to continue that trend.
We need stability, but we also need democracy. You can't use stability to hold people in a situation they don't want to be in. If after a few terms (talking 10, 20 years here) you can find regular polls that find half that would like Scotland to be run from elsewhere, then we should consult the population via referendum. I think we all know that is not a situation that will arise though.
A lot people are stupid, but at the end of they day everyone has the same right to choose who they wish to be governed by and on this matter I think they should also have the right to decide whether they wish Scotland to be in a Union with England. |
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"Well, every single poll that has ever asked the question has found support for the SNP significantly trailing that of Independence. All parties gain votes from those who believe in Independence though none more so than Labour. John McAllion estimated up to 40% of Labour supporters favour Independence, other research (by McCrone I think) put the figure at about 20%.
The reason for that is that not everyone who believes in Independence hold it as high enough a priority to vote for a party who they don't trust or whose other policies they don't like. For example a socialist in Glasgow might vote Labour rather than SNP despite being in favour of Independence, a banker in Edinburgh might vote Tory in the hope of tax cuts rather than the SNP despite believing in Independence. There is also blind party tribalism (especially Labour again), where if you are born into a family or community that votes in a particular way, you are more likely to continue that trend." Thats quite interesting - do you know what percentage of suppoters favour instant independence compared to gradual? |
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| SLG |
The question in the polls is just a simply along the lines of "should Scotland should be independent from the UK, or should we retain the current settlement - yes or no?". So the ~50% (54% in the most recent one) figure seems to arise when folk are given an all or nothing choice. When people are given more of a choice, this falls. Although this is to be expected as you are creating more options and so splitting the answers. However, in those circumstances, you usually find about 30 odd % who choose Independence.
I would say that these 30% are people with Independence as a priority. Most of whom will vote SNP. There seems to be another 20-25% who support Independence, but with less of a priority and would be happy with the gradualist approach of bringing more and more powers to Holyrood, with Independence as an end result. Polls I've seen asking whether Holyrood should have more powers run at about 65-70%, so there seem to be another 10-15% who support more powers for Holyrood, but say they don't want to see full Independence. Almost all of the remaining 30-35% are still in favour of the devolved settlement. I think in a single question referendum, there would be a guaranteed 30% yes and guaranteed 30% no. The remaining 40% is to play for, but I think that most of this section are in favour, in principle, of a Scottish Parliament running Scotland and will come out in favour of Independence. It is this 40% that Murray Ritchie is trying to target with his 'Independence in Britain' article (http://ourscotland.myfreeforum.org/ftopic1804.php). |
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| Aventinian |
Don't take it the wrong way, but I'm noticing these politics polls generally are rather poorly conducted. I've seen test samples of about 60 people, and often under 200, quoted in national newspapers as evidence of changing tides. Bizarrely enough, I also saw over 4,000 women recently consulted in a survey on their taste in hair products. If anyone can suggest why this happens, I'd be quite interested to hear it.
How about moving the UK capital to Edinburgh then? Do you think Scottish independence and EU membership are incompatible, SLG
I don't think anyone would be daft enough to suggest three answers to a referendum question. They would have to be separate if they wanted to consult on the existence of the Scottish Parliament etc.
All the Electoral Commission's powers are under UK legislation and only applies as far as referedums called by the UK Parliament or executive. If, as SLG suggests, the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council allowed the Scottish Parliament to hold a consultative referendum on the reserved matter there would be no legislative controls over it and the practices which could result. |
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| SLG |
Most of the polls I've looked at have polled about 1000 people, but even that is pretty poor. The worst polls seem to be the UK wide ones, who might poll 1000 people of which 10% will be Scottish, and they'll make conclusions re Scottish elections based on that. It's a real problem that should be highlighted further.
I presume that the less people polled, the cheaper it is. The lack of any criticism from those who publish the results means they can get away with it.
Aye, that would be good. Change the representation so that 90% of the MPs represent Scottish constituencies, elected in a proportional manner.
At present, yes. Though it is getting to the point where I think we need to take a step back and think about what we want to get out of the EU and what we are willing to give up. My main concern is that the Scottish Parliament has the power to decide our relationship with the EU though. In the same way I would be more content within the UK so long as the Scottish Parliament had the powers to affect our relationship with the UK.
That's interesting. So if the Unionists do decide to call a referendum, they will have to do so under the conditions of the EC. If the SNP get in a position to call a referendum, they won't have any such conditions. Sounds good to me. |
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