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Dave Coull
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Record Breaking Result PredictedOn the question of Union or Independence, the media in Scotland, press, television, and radio, is generally heavily in favour of the status quo. The academic establishment is also dominated by unionists to some extent, perhaps not as much so as the media, but those academics who get quoted most by the media tend to be unionist. So it is hardly surprising that every dubious "poll" purporting to show that support for independence is low tends to get trumpeted by the media. The latest example is an article in today's Daily Record, headed "Alex Salmond still popular but support for independence falls". The Labour-supporting Record can hardly deny Labour's unacountable unpopularity, but they continue to claim Scots are against independence. | Quote: | | The bungled Holyrood budget has failed to dent Alex Salmond's popularity, a poll showed yesterday. |
Incidentally, note that word "bungled". The implication is that it was Salmond's bungle, which somehow, unaccountably, has failed to dent his popularity. | Quote: | | The YouGov survey found 35 per cent of Scots voters believe Salmond is the best choice for first minister - way ahead of his rivals. But support for the SNP's core policy of independence is falling and now stands at just 29 per cent. |
Opinion polls can fluctuate for all sorts of reasons - the question asked, WHO you ask, and even whether those doing the research can count properly or not. But of course the media will always stress those polls which appear to diminish support for independence, so, at any time, the general impression being given by the media, regardless of the particular circumstances, is liable to be one of pessimism about independence. But now, it seems, they have had to find a new twist. Acknowledge the skilfulness of Alex Salmond as First Minister, but try to get him and his SNP followers, and, indeed, supporters of independence in general, to take it easy with regard to an independence referendum, on the grounds that this is not a good time. Well, let's face it, so far as the Daily Record and its friends in the Labour Party are concerned, there is NEVER going to be a good time. That is the reality. They are trying to prevent the Scottish people being asked whether they want independence or not.
OF COURSE The Daily Record, the Labour Party, and the rest of the unionist establishment will say the people of Scotland would vote against independence if they got the choice in a referendum. They say this because THEY are against independence. But if they are so sure the people of Scotland would support the option which THEY support, how come they are so extremely reluctant to actually ASK the people of Scotland? And I don't mean selected researchers asking a few selected folk. I mean asking EVERYBODY in Scotland, in the only "poll" that really matters - a referendum on independence.
I say the very act of actually calling a referendum will in itself increase support for independence. And of course there will be at least six weeks between calling the referendum and actually holding it, at least six weeks for both supporters and opponents of independence to state their case. I say the pro-independence arguments will be stronger, and will win that campaign. I say there will be an organised cross-party, and non-party, campaign for the independence option, quite apart from anything that the SNP may do, and that the message that this is a vote for a principle, not for any particular party or any particular politician, will indeed get across to most folk. I say the result of the referendum will be a decisive vote for independence. And I say the Daily Record will then report that, somehow, unaccountably, despite bungling by independence supporters, the referendum appears to have produced a result which must be wrong, because it contradicts everything that we absolutely know from "opinion polls".
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Alasdair
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I believe that the "dubious poll" to which the Daily Record referred was actually the You Gov poll carried out on behalf of The Times ... the link appears to be temporarily out of order, although the results are also here courtesy of SNP Tactical Voting and I shamelessly cut and paste part of Jeff's post here:
| jeff @ SNP Tactical Voting wrote: |
The headline results are as follows:
Holyrood Constituency Vote
SNP - 38%
Labour - 32%
Tory - 13%
Lib Dem - 12%
Green - n/a
Holyrood Regional Vote
SNP - 34%
Labour - 28%
Tory - 15%
Lib Dem - 11%
Green - 6%
Socialists - 4%
Westminster Vote
SNP - 27%
Labour - 37%
Tory
Lib Dem
Green |
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