Referendum 2010

macnumpty · Referendum 2010

Assuming that this blog does last until that long, I could well have a very large section on this: The Sunday Herald inform us that that's the date pencilled in for a referendum on Independence, most likely 6 May (That is a Thursday, isn't it?), if current practices are any indication.

But the question will not be a simple "Should Scotland become an independent nation?", oh no. It will be: "The Scottish parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the British government, based on the proposals set out in the white paper, so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and independent state." The answers will of course be, 'Yes, I agree' and 'No, I disagree'. There are rumblings among the Liberal Democrats that a referendum might be agreed to, if an extra option for seeking extra powers can be added. Alex Salmond's comments have left that option open, but I foresee workability issues there: either it needs to be an Alternative Vote referendum (with a first and second choice), or a two-question affair, with Question 1 being Further Powers, and Question 2 being whether or not that should go as far as Independence.

A simple FPTP referendum wouldn't do, unless one option got more than 50% of the vote. If that didn't happen (which it probably won't), then the legitimacy arguments will last a lifetime. Even an alternative vote one would be shaky: again, unless an option got 50% of #1 votes, Scotland ends up implementing something on the grounds that it was a lot of people's second choice, not what they actually wanted, but less unacceptable than another otpion. And the two-question option would be fairly clumsy, Question 1 is wide-ranging, and Question 2 suddenly narrows it to one option. And what happens if only one option gets through? It would makes matters more complicated rather than simpler.

Holyrood Watcher wonders why it's suddenly legal to ask this question when it wasn't before. Has the Executive's legal team changed its mind? I'm no lawyer, but I'd guess not: the key is in the wording. Previous draft referendum questions involved the Scottish Parliament asking a direct question on Independence, which is a constitutional issue and so prohibited under Schedule V of the Scotland Act 1998. This question is different: it's asking the people whether Holyrood should talk with Westminster about Independence. It doesn't even say who'd do the legislating, so it's actually quite vague, especially as we don't know exactly what's in the White Paper.

Of course, this is all predicated on the SNP leading an Executive after May. I might have to break my own rules and get the crystal ball out...

macnumpty

3 May 2007 - Polling day.

4 May 2007 - Election results. The SNP are the largest Party, Labour are second and the LibDems are third. The only viable two-party coalition is between the SNP and the LibDems.

30 May 2007 - After lengthy negotiations, and with a day to spare, the SNP and LibDems agree a Coalition. The Council Tax will be abolished, no planning permission will be granted for nuclear power stations and the Graduate Endowment will be abolished. A referendum on Independence will be held, according to the question drafted by the SNP with the aid of the Scottish Executive, but Collective Responsibility will be suspended and Liberal Democrat Ministers will be free to campaign for the 'No' side.

31 May 2007 - Alex Salmond elected First Minister. Nicol Stephen will continue as Deputy First Minister.

7 May 2009 - General Election. The Conservatives make major gains in England, and anti-Labour tactical voting is rife in Scotland. Labour still come first in terms of votes, but with a major swing against them of 9%. They are damaged by anti-Labour tactical voting, and end up with 30 Scottish seats. The SNP come second in votes, thanks to a 7% swing towards the Party, but end up with ten seats, picking up Aberdeen North, Dundee West, Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Ochil & South Perthshire. The LibDem vote drops slightly, but the anti-Labour voting allows them to gain seats: they consolidate their hold on Dunfermline & West Fife, win Edinburgh North & Leith and Aberdeen South, and take the scalp of key Brownite Nigel Griffiths in Edinburgh South. The Tory vote increases by around 2%, which combined with the anti-Labour vote, gives them their highest number of Scottish MPs since 1997: four. Dumfries & Galloway, East Renfrewshire and Stirling all turn blue. Nationally, the Tories win the election but with a majority of just 20. Scottish Labour Leader Wendy Alexander is blamed for the performance. Labour Leader Wendy Alexander publicly slaps down her predecessor Jack McConnell's suggestion that the Scottish party distance itself from London. Tory Leader Murdo Fraser and Prime Minister David Cameron agree that more autonomy is what the Scottish Tories need, and following discussions taking place over the past two years, announce that the Scottish Conservatives will take the UK Tory Whip at Westminster, but that the parties will, for all intents and purposes, be separate entities.

14 June 2009 - European Election. The SNP overtakes Labour into first place. Both take two seats, along with the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats take one. After the hard-fought General Election campaign, turnout is a pathetic 20%.

Faced with the strong SNP performances in the Elections, combined with his slimline majority, Cameron's first speech in Scotland contains lines on the need to scale back Whitehall involvement in people's lives, and, more controversially, an announcement that London will not 'keep Scotland out of self-interest'. He informs his audience that if, and only if, the people of Scotland back independence, he will have no choice but to support it.

6 May 2010 - the Referendum campaign. First Minister Alex Salmond leads the 'Yes' campaign, and in a shock move, Murdo Fraser supports him. Leader of the Opposition Wendy Alexander publicly leads the 'No' campaign. Nicol Stephen stays largely silent, but George Lyon and Tavish Scott make a handful of anti-Independence speeches. There is no intervention by UK Government Ministers, who are conspicuous in their absence. The result: 55.2% in favour of Independence. Negotiations begin, and move rapidly.

5 May 2011 - Elections to the Independent Scottish Parliament.

SLG

Nice one macnumpty Mr. Green

I don't know anyone involved in the Lib Dems. I know everything is on offer in coalition talks, but are the Lib Dems really likely to allow a straight forward independence referendum? You talk about the problems with a two question referendum, I'm thinking that I would rather no referendum than one with two questions. It would be doomed to failure.

Aventinian

You guys really need to get this wet dream of the Tories ever supporting Scottish independence out of your head. Honestly, hell would freeze over first - and you'd have a better chance of getting Labour on your side.

SLG

macnumpty

Never say never, Aventinian. We're already seeing the Tories move to a position of the Parliament having further powers, leaving Labour isolated as the only party supporting the status quo. Don't forget Michael Fry's defection to a pro-Independence position as well.

That said, I would probably agree on reflection that the Tory Party as it presently exists is unlikely to support full-on Independence. If the ties between the UK Party and the Scottish Party were to be loosened, however, who knows?

agentmancuso

azzuri

agentmancuso

Economist