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Reluctant Hero

Salmond targets 20 MPs

Alex Salmond said today that he is hoping to have at least 20 SNP MPs after the next general election.  Who would bet against him achieving it?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8307222.stm
azzuri

Ambitious the way the boundaries are set up. Even if the SNP were to beat Labour in % share of the vote, they'd struggle to get said 20 MPs.

Who knows though, don't bet against the Scottish electorate. 10-12 would be a massive swing though. Watch for the Lib Dem vote collapse, except in the Orkney and Shetland Isles of course...
landg

Re: Salmond targets 20 MPs

Reluctant Hero wrote:
Alex Salmond said today that he is hoping to have at least 20 SNP MPs after the next general election.  Who would bet against him achieving it?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8307222.stm


me, it's not gonna happen.
October1974

In 2007 the SNP won 21 FPTP seats. In the same seats in 1997 we won 6. In 1992 only 3. The party has come a long way since those days.

It will depend on how far the Labour vote is down on 2005. If the SNP outpoll them then seats can tumble, if not then it will be harder.
Dave Coull

Re: Salmond targets 20 MPs

Reluctant Hero wrote:
Alex Salmond said today that he is hoping to have at least 20 SNP MPs after the next general election.
That's a very ambitious target. First, he has to win the Glasgow North East by-election. And because of the SNP candidate's secretive, undemocratic, and unsavoury connections, I hope he fails to win that one.
Reluctant Hero wrote:
Who would bet against him achieving it?
landg wrote:
me
Your "bets" are meaningless bravado. We have already established that.
Holebender

This target was set at least a year and a half ago. It's rather old news.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/sal...an-dance-to-scottish-jig-1.878981
landg

Re: Salmond targets 20 MPs

Dave Coull wrote:
Reluctant Hero wrote:
Alex Salmond said today that he is hoping to have at least 20 SNP MPs after the next general election.
That's a very ambitious target. First, he has to win the Glasgow North East by-election. And because of the SNP candidate's secretive, undemocratic, and unsavoury connections, I hope he fails to win that one.
Reluctant Hero wrote:
Who would bet against him achieving it?
landg wrote:
me
Your "bets" are meaningless bravado. We have already established that.


i put on my independence bet.
just because i did not offer a couple of thousand ponds to some nameless internet trool for safe keeping does not mean i did not follow through on my actions.
i will now seek out a bet on the snp not winning 20 seats at the UK elections. paddypower is usually best for political bets.
Dave Coull

Re: Salmond targets 20 MPs

landg wrote:
i will now seek out a bet on the snp not winning 20 seats at the UK elections.
It's quite possible they won't. I think they have made a mistake with the candidate they selected for the Glasgow North East by election, and, if they don't do well there, that could have a negative effect on their campaign in a general election happening just a few months later. However, my point that we have already established that your "bets" are meaningless bravado still stands. You carelessly said "I bet" with regard to independence, and you offered, here on this Our Scotland forum, to bet a thousand pounds, or a thousand euros, or a thousand dollars, against independence happening within a specific time. Holebender, who gets his salary paid in dollars, took your offer of a bet, in any of these three currencies you preferred, with stringent conditions specified to ensure that either he or you would in fact pay up when the time came    -    and you backed off.
Holebender

Actually, the offer was to bet a thousand pounds and a thousand dollars and a thousand euros. I just offered to simplify it a little by making it three thousand of any one of those currencies. I'm quite prepared to make it a thousand of each though, if that's preferred.
Stevie

Re: Salmond targets 20 MPs

landg wrote:
i put on my independence bet.
just because i did not offer a couple of thousand ponds to some nameless internet trool for safe keeping does not mean i did not follow through on my actions.
i will now seek out a bet on the snp not winning 20 seats at the UK elections. paddypower is usually best for political bets.


Honestly, a little more  thought and far fewer words could lead to more coherence.

Are you still inebriated?  Mmn... make that intoxicated?
landg

Re: Salmond targets 20 MPs

Stevie wrote:
landg wrote:
i put on my independence bet.
just because i did not offer a couple of thousand ponds to some nameless internet trool for safe keeping does not mean i did not follow through on my actions.
i will now seek out a bet on the snp not winning 20 seats at the UK elections. paddypower is usually best for political bets.


Honestly, a little more  thought and far fewer words could lead to more coherence.

Are you still inebriated?  Mmn... make that intoxicated?


let me break it down for you. perhaps you have been trepanned and that is slowing down your cognitive function.

i placed the bet. i was not placinga  bet with nameless interweb trolls and certainly not giving them spondoobies.
Aventinian

They will make gains, but 20 is very ambitious. Once you get down to the 'least likely' of their 20 possible gains, we're talking about overturning massive majorities in areas where the SNP has never been particularly popular, whilst conversely having the SNP retaining seats like Angus where they have a relatively small majority.
pictus

Latest regional splits put the SNP ahead of Labour in one, and sharing 29% with another.
Holebender

Of course it's an ambitious target. What's the point in setting an unambitious target? Targets are supposed to be challenging.

How inspiring would it be if party leaders didn't tell their member to return to their constituencies and prepare for government? Ambitious targets are set to rouse the troops and gee them up for the campaign, not to conform to the latest opinion poll data.
Tartan Tory

If Salmond basing the number 20 on the 2007 election he should bear in mind there are more FPTP seats in Holyrood (73) than there are Scottish seats in Westminster (approx. 50)
Holebender

I think he probably knows that. Doesn't everyone, especially politicians?
Stevie

Ambitious yes, but Salmond is not usually guilty of ridiculous over reaching.

Does anyone have the lowdown on the seats he's interested in.
Cruachan

Stevie wrote:
Ambitious yes, but Salmond is not usually guilty of ridiculous over reaching.

Does anyone have the lowdown on the seats he's interested in.



Take a look over at Malc's website, which has a good analysis

http://malcintheburgh.blogspot.co.../10/20-snp-mps-dont-think-so.html
Shagpile

Cruachan wrote:
Stevie wrote:
Ambitious yes, but Salmond is not usually guilty of ridiculous over reaching.

Does anyone have the lowdown on the seats he's interested in.



Take a look over at Malc's website, which has a good analysis

http://malcintheburgh.blogspot.co.../10/20-snp-mps-dont-think-so.html


One thing's for sure in my mind...... bused, trained or flown-in support as with the Glenrothes bye election is not going to figure in with the General Election. They've got too many (now marginal) seats to contend with south of the border..... keep an eye on the postal votes though.  Wink
Dave Coull

Shagpile wrote:
keep an eye on the postal votes
The Labour Party has past "form" for electoral fraud. There have been one or two cases where actual crime has been proven, but there have been a lot more cases where strange "irregularities" occurred. The mysterious loss of electoral records in the Glenrothes by-election was merely the latest in a long series of odd happenings. Yes, the postal vote system needs to be very closely watched.
Stevie

Thanks Cruachan, 13 - 15 seats then?

Still, he's been right a lot more often than he's been wrong.

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