Scotsman/Guardian poll (ICM Poll wednesday 2nd may)

skip · Scotsman/Guardian poll (ICM Poll wednesday 2nd may)

ITN news made a brief reference to a poll being published in the Scotsman newspaper tomorrow (wednesday). The poll is to suggests
that the labour and snp are neck and neck and the Scotsman writes that the election result is on a "Knifedge".

EDIT: same poll also published by The Guardian

George

I heard this as well but can find no details on it. Is this the rogue poll that has been referred to recently?

William_Cleland

It will be interesting to see what company is behind it and what the sample size is. I would not be surprised by a late surge to Labour as undecideds finally tune into what is happening and come down off the fence. Turnout will be the key. A high turnout will tend to help Labour.

George

October1974

What they are talking about it the seat allocation. It appears that the SNP are still leading Labour. We will have to see what the article actually says. I still think Labour are going to get a kicking.

William_Cleland

No matter what happens now there is going to be a massive swing from Labour to the SNP and any Labour "victory" will be more about "expectation management" than anything else. Hence why the SNP were being talked up on the weekend.

skip

it might argue that the 'don't knows' have fallen for all the old scare stories and will back labour as before.

however, it might have the reverse affect and actually drive some people to the polls to make sure labour get the kicking!!

William_Cleland

It's ICM who have a good track regard on predicting Scottish results:-

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=676172007

The SNP is still ahead - by 2 per cent on the constituency vote and 1 per cent on the regional vote - but only just. This would leave just one seat between the two main parties if the poll results are translated into votes tomorrow.

The SNP would have 43 seats to Labour's 42, with the Liberal Democrats on 23, the Conservatives on 17, the Greens with one and the others three.

ICM found that support for the SNP has remained largely static since The Scotsman's last poll, conducted at the start of the five-week campaign, while Labour's support has grown.

The poll found that the Nationalists are now on 34 per cent (up two points) on the constituency vote and 30 per cent (-1) on the regional list vote. However, Labour has seen its vote go up, to 32 per cent on the constituency vote (+5) and to 29 per cent on the regional list vote (+2).

The Liberal Democrat vote has been squeezed, apparently because the contest has increasingly been seen as a two-horse race. Its support fell by three percentage points to 16 per cent on the constituency vote and by one point to 16 per cent on the regional list vote.

Jimbo

I don't get how they work this out.

If 47% of the men polled are voting SNP and 29% are voting Labour, and;
if 32% of women polled are voting SNP and 33% are voting Labour, how come we're only 2% ahead?

I make this an average 35.5% SNP and an average 31% Labour.

Could someone explain this to me please?

I'm also told that the pollsters were instructed to go to a safe Glasgow Labour Ward to conduct the poll.

EDIT. Not with it, above average for SNP should read 39.5%

William_Cleland