mairead
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SNP winSNP 47 seats
Labour 46
Just need to ee what sort of coalition is formed.
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jonnytheroth
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"And Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell, asked on Thursday morning if he would consider forming a coalition with the SNP if they insisted on holding a referendum on independence, said: "Absolutely not ... We are against independence, that's our position and it ain't going to change." "
That might be tough.
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SLG
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I thought the Lib Dems were a federal party and any decision would be taken by the Scottish Liberal Democrats, who are led by Nicol Stephen, not Menzies Campbell.
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Aventinian
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| SLG wrote: | | I thought the Lib Dems were a federal party and any decision would be taken by the Scottish Liberal Democrats, who are led by Nicol Stephen, not Menzies Campbell. |
Ah, but constitutional measures are very much a federal matter.
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SLG
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| Aventinian wrote: | | SLG wrote: | | I thought the Lib Dems were a federal party and any decision would be taken by the Scottish Liberal Democrats, who are led by Nicol Stephen, not Menzies Campbell. |
Ah, but constitutional measures are very much a federal matter. |
But if the SNP agree to drop the call for a referendum, then there is no constitutional question. Even in that scenario Menzies seems to want to rule out a coalition.
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mairead
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My own opinion is that thee Lib Dems will form a coalition. They need to be somewhere in power in Scotland or they will fade away
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agentmancuso
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| mairead wrote: | | My own opinion is that thee Lib Dems will form a coalition. They need to be somewhere in power in Scotland or they will fade away |
I think it unlikely, to say the least, that a century and a half of Liberalism in Scotland will come to an end because of the loss of one seat 
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William_Cleland
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Bit of a stretch claiming a century and a half of Liberalism when at one point it was basically just Jo Grimond based on the Orkney and Shetland crofters vote. SNP and Lib Dem voters have a lot more in common than the activists of either party would probably like to admit. Federalism is not an easy option when one of the second tier constitutional units has ca. 85% of the population so people who would normally be "Liberals" wind up as "Nationalists".
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agentmancuso
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Ha ha, yes indeed there have been highs and lows. But we're not going away anytime soon.
I'm never done admitting that the moderate wing of the SNP and the Lib Dems have a great deal in common. That's why I'm here in the first place, to engage in constructive dialogue and find common ground.
Admittedly, I get distracted by the ridiculous antics of the fundamentalist fringe, but I'm only human after all. 
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mairead
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I don't know Agentmancuso, four years with no Lib Dem in the executive, could,Ii think, do them a lot of harm.
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William_Cleland
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| mairead wrote: | | I don't know Agentmancuso, four years with no Lib Dem in the executive, could,Ii think, do them a lot of harm. |
I bet they are seriously concerned about losing Gordon, Argyll & Bute and Roxburgh & Berwickshire, their dismal 5th place in Strathkelvin and Bearsden where they have the Westminster seat and some of the major swings to the SNP in places like Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross, Ross, Skye & Inverness West, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine and especially Aberdeen South. There are probably strong arguments for not being in the executive and too closely associated with either Labour or the SNP so that a distinctive identity can be more easily displayed. They probably don't want a new election campaign after just 28 days as nobody will want to be blamed for an early set of elections so soon. The easy way out might be to find an excuse (i.e. referendum) to say no to the SNP and then back Jack McConnell on a minority basis along with the Tories without a formal coalition this time.
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SLG
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I'm not familiar with minority government, but I presume that even if they do choose to stay out of an official coalition, they will need to work with the SNP to help them form a program for government. The SNP are so far off a majority, and the Lib Dems agree with so much SNP policy, they should at least try to help the SNP formulate its program to be sure that bills are passed.
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William_Cleland
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The thing to remember is that a majority needs to approve the new first minister in 28 days or there will be fresh elections. Labour and the Tories (who I don't think would ever back Alex Salmond in a million years) combined that way have 63 so even a no nuclear power deal with the Greens might get Jack McConnell back in. In some ways a Labour minority government with Lib Dems and Tories both only providing support in key confidence votes is probably the most stable combination given the policy differences are not so drastic nowadays and they can all use the threat of an independence referendum as an excuse for doing it. There are no easy answers though as the Lib Dems would risk looking like Labour's poodle in that scenario, which might fuel the growth of the SNP in their core Highlands and NE constituencies and there is nothing like the threat of unemployment to stiffen a politician's resolve when it comes to doing something they would normally find unpalatable.
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SLG
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Even if they choose not to stay out of coalition, the Lib Dems will have to decide who to vote for as FM. I doubt many of their members (and voters) would forgive them if they let McConnell in, when SNP policy is so much more in line with Lib Dem opinion. They know fine will in that scenario, that the SNP couldn't get a referendum through, so there is no risk there.
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William_Cleland
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That sounds plausible but the main problem in all of this is maybe the Greens. How sensible would their conditions for support be given they just had a bit of a setback and therefore maybe feel a need to be seen making a big difference in exchange for parliamentary backing? They have some frankly wacko ideas about things like not replacing the Forth Road Bridge for example that neither the SNP or Labour are likely to entertain.
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SLG
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I wouldn't expect the SGP to form a coalition just because of issues like transport. However, on issues like the new Forth Bridge, it will be easy to form a majority based on Tory and Labour votes.
I do think the SNP want to make sure they have a coalition with the Lib Dems to at least get close to a guaranteed majority.
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carol
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The Greens were supportive where the Scottish Independence Convention was concerned, I personally can't see them having problems with a working relationship with the SNP, anyway thought they were both in dialogue leading up to the elections.
interesting to see what happens with the SIC, there's no way they'll be constitutionally viable following the loss of socialist representation and less Green MSPs
Carol
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SLG
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Oh I'm sure the SGP would rather work with the SNP. Who knows what Labour might offer them in return for their support though.
As for the SIC, well I guess it could get mothballed for 4 years (unless independence is achieved in that time  ) and see what happens then. The SGP are still in Parliament and they have now won quite a few councillors. I think they will come back stronger again in 2011. Who knows what will happen with the socialists. There are so many socialist activists that I wouldn't rule them out either.
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George
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The poor Liberals, caught between a rock and a hard place, why did the SNP have to win the bloody thing.
Prop up McConnell?, he's now a busted flush ........ completely outmaneouvered by Salmond in the election aftermath, it would be political suicide. The SNP reek of success and dynamism and the media can smell it. There is also that special excitement and optimism usually reserved for historic moments.
The Liberals can embrace it and bask in the shared glow or they can retreat from it...........but retreat to what? They are not even the third party, a mediocre increase in actual vote resulted in the loss of a seat.
What SNP policies would they vote against should there be a minority administration?, they are virtually identical on most of the main ones anyway. So they can sit on the back benches nodding through policies that they agree with but taking no credit for them...............but reserving the right to vote against the big one, a referendum.
The SNP get all their main policies through, then single out the Liberals as the party who denied democracy to the people.
At the end of the day both the Liberals and the SNP wish to govern, the majority of the electorate are fed up with Labour, the media (forget the Record and Sun) now accept that the SNP have the momentum ........... it should be a no brainer.
However could there be a fly in the ointment?
What discussions are currently underway at Westminster between Ming and Gordy?
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SLG
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| George wrote: | | Prop up McConnell?, he's now a busted flush ........ completely outmaneouvered by Salmond in the election aftermath, it would be political suicide. The SNP reek of success and dynamism and the media can smell it. There is also that special excitement and optimism usually reserved for historic moments. |
Without getting too carried away - you're spot on! First election Labour have lost in 50 years. The Lib Dems know as well as the SNP that the domination Labour have had in that time has been unhealthy and that we need a change. I'm sure that's what the Scottish Lib Dems will decide. If Ming puts the pressure on, the Lib Dems will lose so much credibility net least amongst their own supporters and members.
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agentmancuso
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| George wrote: | | The poor Liberals, caught between a rock and a hard place, why did the SNP have to win the bloody thing. |
I'm not sure why you think it's a problem for the Liberal Democrats that the SNP won. I'm glad they did.
| Quote: | | The SNP get all their main policies through, then single out the Liberals as the party who denied democracy to the people. |
I think you'll find it was the voters that elected an outright majority opposed to independence, just the other day, for the umpteenth time.
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George
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| agentmancuso wrote: | | George wrote: | | The poor Liberals, caught between a rock and a hard place, why did the SNP have to win the bloody thing. |
I'm not sure why you think it's a problem for the Liberal Democrats that the SNP won. I'm glad they did.
| Quote: | | The SNP get all their main policies through, then single out the Liberals as the party who denied democracy to the people. |
I think you'll find it was the voters that elected an outright majority opposed to independence, just the other day, for the umpteenth time. |
No, the voters have never had a referendum to express their opinion on independence.
The voters in this election have returned parties with varying degrees of support, or not, for the current constitutional mechanism.
These range from no change to complete independence, the only thing that can be stated with absolute certainty is that there are independence supporters in every party AND that given a referendum on independence then a further 10% of voters who did not vote in the election will vote in a referendum.
Do you disagree that substantially more people will vote in a referendum than took part in this election?
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agentmancuso
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| George wrote: | | Do you disagree that substantially more people will vote in a referendum than took part in this election? |
No. Did you expect me to? Does it matter?
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elidir
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Congratulations to the SNP i'm pleased for you and Scotland.
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George
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| agentmancuso wrote: | | George wrote: | | Do you disagree that substantially more people will vote in a referendum than took part in this election? |
No. Did you expect me to? Does it matter? |
Yes, of course it does. Especially when some people are combining the vote of the Labour, Liberal and Tory parties and presenting it as concrete proof of a lack of support for independence. Take the Labour policy on retaining the Council Tax, I don't for a minute believe that every Liberal and SNP voter is against it.....although I accept that the majority probably are.
I wouldn't be surprised if the turnout for such a referendum reached 70%.
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agentmancuso
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| George wrote: | Especially when some people are combining the vote of the Labour, Liberal and Tory parties and presenting it as concrete proof of a lack of support for independence. Take the Labour policy on retaining the Council Tax, I don't for a minute believe that every Liberal and SNP voter is against it.....although I accept that the majority probably are.
I wouldn't be surprised if the turnout for such a referendum reached 70%. |
Do you think that the people who were too lazy or stupid to bother voting in the recent election are necessarily more likely to vote 'Yes' in an independence referendum?
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