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Sassenach

Today's Sunday Mail

http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/...%2dlet%2ds%2dsplit-name_page.html

Quote:
16 July 2006
EXCLUSIVE: LET'S SPLIT
1 IN 3 Eniglish say they want independence from Scotland
By Brian Lironi Political Editor
ONE in three English voters wants England to split from Scotland, a Sunday Mail poll reveals today.

Seven years after the establishment of the Scottish parliament, 31 per cent of English people think it is time to break up the UK.

That is similar to the level of support for the proindependence SNP in Scotland. Earlier this month, they polled at 30 per cent.

In our ICM poll south of the Border, 60 per cent were against English independence and nine per cent said they did not know.

Anti-Scottish opinion in England has been blamed on devolution and the funding formula under which Scotland gets more per head than England.

Some Scots' attitudes towards England, including Jack McConnell's admission he wouldn't be supporting the football team in the World Cup, have also gone down badly


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Tory leader David Cameron has already suggested banning Scots MPs from voting on English issues.


The poll is bad news for Gordon Brown, who has to overcome opposition to the next prime minister of the UK being a Scot.


SNP leader Alex Salmond said: "We now not only have a situation where a majority in Scotland would vote for Scotland becoming independent but a dramatic poll showing growing and substantial support for English independence.


"It's time both countries were selfgoverning, having responsibility for their own resources and passing their own laws while working together in a new partnership of equals.


"Gone will be a surly lodger and in its place will be a new and very friendly neighbour.


"Clearly, this is the future. This growing support shows that unionist politicians are on their way out and the argument for independence and self-respect is on its way in."


But Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander, who is in charge of relations between Scotland and the rest of the UK, said the poll proved that nationalists everywhere are in the minority.


A spokesman said: "This confirms the majority of people in Scotland and south of the Border are in favour of remaining within the United Kingdom.


"It shows people throughout the UK recognise that we are stronger together and weaker apart."


Tory Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell said: "I'm pleased that the overwhelming majority of people want to remain part of the UK. But this shows it is now incumbent on those of us who support the union to make the case for the union from the English point of view.


"Politicians of unionist parties have not paid enough attention to highlighting to people in England the benefits of the continuation of the UK.


"I also think that there are many people who might have answered yes without actually thinking through the consequences.


"If you were to have asked them if they wanted to see the end of Britain I don't think you would have had the same response."


Within England, there are also growing calls for the country to get its own parliament - short of full independence.


The survey found that support for English independence was highest in the 35-44 age group.


Support was highest in the Midlands at 35 per cent and lowest in the North of England at 27 per cent.


The poll also found higher income households were less enthusiastic about English independence at just 24 per cent while poorer households were in favour at 41 percent.


A total of 869 respondents were interviewed by ICM Research on behalf of Progressive Partnership.


31%


...the number of English voters who said they should be independent from Scotland


Results: We asked if England should be independent from Scotland.


Yes: 31 percent. No: 60 percent.


Don't know/refused to answer - nine percent. 869 respondents were interviewed by telephone in England between Tuesday and Thursday by ICM Research on behalf of the Progressive Partnership.


Personally I'd quite like to see the dissolution of the Union. It looks like the independence movement may be gathering momentum, what with proposed march by independence1st, the West Lothian question down south and peoples' general dissatisfaction with 'new Labour'!

www.independence1st.com
Avatar

It would be a bizarre situation if England ended up having a referendum and voting for Independence leaving Scotland, Wales and NI joined as the UK - and if Scotland then voted for independence - you would have the UK of Wales and NI. The Unionists in NI would be pretty screwed if we all went our own way.
Sassenach

Avatar wrote:
It would be a bizarre situation if England ended up having a referendum and voting for Independence leaving Scotland, Wales and NI joined as the UK - and if Scotland then voted for independence - you would have the UK of Wales and NI. The Unionists in NI would be pretty screwed if we all went our own way.


I can't see England holding a referendum. However, I seriously think there's a good chance that Scotland will. Whether or not people will opt to preserve the status quo or boldly elect for change remains to be seen...
Congal

How do the Scots people vote in the elections. Do they support the party/parties advocating independence.?
azzuri

I read the full article when I saw a copy of the full headline and story in the Sunday Mail when waiting in my local chinese takeaway. (I really don't read that rag, honest!)

If you read it, as well as the editors column a couple of pages in, it's full of negative language towards the SNP, nationalism etc. and it is an all-round sloppy article.

They have equated support for the SNP alongside that of Independence in Scotland which is frankly laughable - even those at the Daily Retard it's Sunday equivalent know that almost 50% of Labour voters support Independence.

The language they use in the article is very divisive. If it were only votes for Political parties which equated the 'Independence' vote, then surely only 1-2% of those in England support English Independence? (given the amount of votes for the English Democrats)

They have by definition shown this up for what it is: a biased and badly written article from Scotland's gutter press - designed to be divisive.
Aventinian

Congal wrote:
How do the Scots people vote in the elections. Do they support the party/parties advocating independence.?


SNP Support since devolution:

1999 Scottish Parliament Election - 28.7% - 35 seats (7 for First Past the Post seats)
1999 European Parliament Election - 27.2% - 2 seats
2001 General Election - 20.1% - 5 seats
2003 Scottish Parliament Election* - 23.8% - 27 seats (9 for First Past the Post seats)
2004 European Parliament Election - 19.7% - 2 seats
2005 General Election - 17.7% - 6 seats
[Wikipedia]
True Scotsman

The same story was on the Scotsman & the Herald.

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/scotland.cfm?id=1036442006

http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/65962.html
azzuri

Aventinian wrote:
Congal wrote:
How do the Scots people vote in the elections. Do they support the party/parties advocating independence.?


SNP Support since devolution:

1999 Scottish Parliament Election - 28.7% - 35 seats (7 for First Past the Post seats)
1999 European Parliament Election - 27.2% - 2 seats
2001 General Election - 20.1% - 5 seats
2003 Scottish Parliament Election* - 23.8% - 27 seats (9 for First Past the Post seats)
2004 European Parliament Election - 19.7% - 2 seats
2005 General Election - 17.7% - 6 seats
[Wikipedia]


However, polls in the last decade show much higher support for Scottish Independence:

see - http://www.independence1st.com/polls.shtml
SLG

That's right, the polls suggest a majority in favour of Independence. As for the election results, I think Aventinian is presenting them in quite a manipulative manner. I think it would be more appropriate to compare like with like.

If we look at the UK election results over the years... There is a long term increase with a lull after the first devolution referendum failed and a decline since devolution rendered the SNP in Westminster fairly redundant.

Pre-devolution -
1935 General Election - 1.1% of Scottish vote - 0 seats
1945 General Election - 1.2% - 0 seats
1950 General Election - 0.4% - 0 seats
1951 General Election - 0.3% - 0 seats
1955 General Election - 0.5% - 0 seats
1959 General Election - 0.5% - 0 seats
1964 General Election - 2.4% - 0 seats
1966 General Election - 5.0% - 0 seats
1970 General Election - 11.4% - 1 seat
1974 General Election (Feb) - 21.9% - 7 seats
1974 General Election (Oct) - 30.4% - 11 seats
1979 General Election - 17.3% - 2 seats
1983 General Election - 11.7% - 2 seats
1987 General Election - 14.0% - 3 seats
1992 General Election - 21.5% - 3 seats
1997 General Election - 22.1% - 6 seats
After devolution -
2001 General Election - 20.1% - 5 seats
2005 General Election - 17.7% - 6 seats

Since devolution Holyrood has become the place where Independence will be won, but there have only been two elections to date.

1999 Scottish Parliament Election - 28.7% - 35 seats (7 for First Past the Post seats)
2003 Scottish Parliament Election* - 23.8% - 27 seats (9 for First Past the Post seats)

A bit soon to claim any sort of trend IMO, especially as the SNP appear to be leading in recent polls.
Morph

One of the things that strikes me was the sample size of this study, while no one can ask everyone there oppinion, 800 odd people is a bit of a small sample and doesnt take into account regional differences. Not the best indication in my book
Aventinian

I'm beginning to have very little time for these surveys and polls that ask inane political questions to people who may well not have considered them. It's the old chestnut - everyone would like to see more funding for schools, better wages for firemen, police etc; but would a survey ever ask them how much they're willing to pay for this?

The election ones are reasonable in my opinion - it would seem that most people know who they will be voting for quite a few weeks before an election (or even months... possibly years).
SLG

The results should be considered with great caution Aventinian, but that does not mean to say that they are meaningless. I think they are most valuable in spotting trends. It is quite clear to me that if you asked this question to 900 people in england 5 years ago, you would not have got near the 31% we find today.

I take your point that people need to have considered the question beforehand, and I think polls on Independence in Scotland are more likely to find a considered response than those in England where it is a fairly new question. This is changing though.

I would like to see the Scottish papers commission regular polls on voting preference and the Independence question, and I hope we will see English people regularly asked their opinion on Independence.
Morph

It is fair to say that the way questions are asked can get different answers, eg. The ones that, that perticular paper want, Confused
SLG

Aye, the question always need to be taken into account when looking at the results. But going back to the last poll on Independence in Scotland, that poll was commissioned by the SNP, so you would expect that question to be very similar to any question they will try and set in a referendum should they be the ones organising it.

To be honest, it doesn't sound like the Sunday Mail commissioned question was particularly leading either... "England should be independent from Scotland - yes or no?". Seems fairly straight forward to me.
Rinty

g

It is not only the SNP who support independence so SNP votes does not equal the pro-independence vote.

ASlso it is difficult in the westmintsre elections as even if we voted for all 59 Mps to be SNP ones they would still make up less than 10% of seats at westminster.

The best indication is the votes so far in the Scottish parliament.

1999 - Pro-Independence MSPs - 38 (35 SNP 1 SSP 1SGP and 1 Ind)
2003 - 43 (27 SNP 7 SGP 6 SSP 1 pensioners party and 2 Ind)

If we take recent polls together with byelection results, combine that with the substantial amount of voters for pro-union parties who support independence and the even larger number in those parties who support more devolution, then it is not that far away IMHO.

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