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Neil

Why will the new Forth Bridge cost 8 times the last one

A new Forth Bridge is being costed at £2.5 billion, far above previous estimates of about £1 billion.

By comparison the original road bridge was £19.5 million." There has therefore been an increase of 12,800% over 49 years - which comes out as 10.3% inflation ever year. The modern price of something then costing £19.50 should be £314.96 so the new proposal is 8 times more than the the present day cost of the original bridge.

The Millau viaduct is a beautiful example of French engineering and cost only £320,million!

The Sydney tunnel of 2.1 kilometres cost £300 million.

Germany & Denmark have recently agreed to build a Baltic bridge at £3.7 billion but it is a 20 kilometre bridge.

Meanwhile the alternative, a tunnel, costed by an engineer who has seen Norway's tunnels at £250, is listed by the Scottish Office at £4.7 billion.

On an FoI enquiry I have been sent a table which comes out as follows:

1 Cost of actually building the tunnel £1,023 million
2 Road Network £ 355 million
3 "Optimism Bias" £ 456 "
4 10% extra contingency fee £183 "

5 subtotal £2,018 "

6 Transport Scotland budget £100 "
7 VAT at 17.5% £353 "

8 more subtotal £2,471 "

9 allowance for 7.5% inflation £1,655 "
10 capital charges £545 "

11 Total £4,673 "

Who benefits from this overcharging of 8 fold & up & why is Holyrood refusing to put this out to open tender?

references
http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot....10/forth-tunnel-price-fakery.html http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot....07/06/building-project-costs.html
Holebender

Quote:
11 Total £4,673


If they can get a complete River Forth crossing for under five grand they should go for it, maybe buy a spare while they're at it!

Any chance you could write the above piece in English? There's a lot of numbers, some of which are millions and some of which aren't, but I don't see one which is eight times another.
Neil

H*l*b*nd*r the use of " after a figure means that the same word as used above still applies - in this the word is "million".

I trust this is helpful in your ongoing attempt to learn to read english. Perhaps you could get somebody to explain numbers to you - they are important to this subject & indeed to almost any real political matter.

While your devotion to my writing is appreciated might you consider, just once, trying to make an actual contribution to some, any, debate rather than foolish rudeness.
Aventinian

Ah, but I'm not actually convinced that inflation hasn't always been higher than officially stated.

As I've said before, however, I am no economist and anything above fundamental or basic economic theory bores me stiff.
SLG

It's something many of us are thinking Neil. I don't think it matters the rate of inflation, we just need to look at the cost of these things elsewhere, in other Western European countries where the cost of labour is not too different. I can only put it down to the fact that the same few private contractors that seem to work on all government contracts in the UK have a monopoly on this sort of work.
Aventinian

That's a point with which I find myself in general agreement, SLG.

Not only is it prohibiting cost, but it is also resulting in buildings that ill-address the needs of the people. I wonder how many people were satisfied in the 1970s when the local authorities started commissioning designs for their schools, community centres and other public buildings when ended up as ugly carbuncles.

In fact, they were still doing that in the late 90s, on a rather larger scale! Handing blank cheques to awful architects in order for them to play out their whims and attempt to appear innovative is never a good idea.
Neil

It was suggested to me on my blog that it might be because of our environmental & health & safety regs but I do not find it possible to believe that could account for an 8 fold increase. The friends & favoured contractors of the Scottish Office seems more credible.

We need fixed price tenders & most of all we need them to be open to the public (I also think we need a press who are willing to ask exactly why this price is so high - something they have visibly failed to do.

Without fixed prices we get scum like Dewar saying "Tam Dalyell is wicked and alarmist to suggest that the cost of the Parliament Building will be one penny over £40,000,000."
SLG

It's weird, there is clearly something up, but there doesn't seem to be any great outcry in either political circles or in the media. I don't get it.
Aventinian

They're probably too busy trying to cosy up to the new Emperor in town.
Neil

Somebody once approxiamately said (I've no idea who & can't find it online):

"There are 2 ways of doing journalis. The first is that you go out investigate in detail into what is going on & the second is that you sit at your desk & rewrite press releases. They both pay the same."

Look at how many of even the most important stories quote a new report from/sources close to/friends of/environmental spokesmen etc etc the department of fatness regulations/the prime minister/posh spice/Al Gore/leading experts. How many of these stories originated other than from press releases , press conferences (with drinks laid on) or lobby briefings. Perhaps equally important how often will a paper nowdays have a real sccop - not an "exclusive interview" but some news that they have found that their competitor hasn't - on occasions where that happens the story usually gets dropped because the paper is afraid of looking like they are have been caught out concentrating on something the"consensus" thinks unimportant.
Neil

My letter in the Scotsman today. An engineer aquaintance has said people are rubbing their hands in glee at this price. I personally have no doubt that, if the political will was there we could have a Forth Tunnel at, at the most, several % of what is proposed.

Quote:
"We are told a new Forth bridge will cost between £3.2 and £4.2 billion (your report, 20 December). Back when the estimate was £2.5 billion (in June) I thought it was high. The previous road bridge cost £19.5 million, which converts today to £314 million. Why have costs, after inflation, gone up ten to 13 times? It would seem amazing if this was purely government regulations, but the alternative would seem more sinister.

A third crossing was initially sold on the threat that the current bridge was about to fall down because the cables were ageing. However, it seems ever more likely that it can be reroped at a cost of about £10 million. This is, after all, what the rest of the world does. Anybody want to bet on whether, as soon as all the expensive contracts have been signed, we will be told that reroping can proceed apace?


This was a short letter & greatly understates the problem since the real way to provide a crossing is by a tunnel, which, if we did it at the same cost as Norway manages, would set us back about £40 million - 1% of what we are being charged for this.

Here is a reply I put up on the Herald online expanding on this & refering to previous articles I have done on the subject.

"Thanks Stephen <he had said the price differential I quoted was astounding & asked for verification>
I have discussed this on my blog & my articles contain further links  to various costings so I will refer you to

Costings of previous bridges & Norwegian tunnels
http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot....07/06/building-project-costs.html
My FoI enquiry into how the tunnel was costed
http://a-place-to-stand.blogspot....10/forth-tunnel-price-fakery.html
Herald discussion yesterday ending with a Scot living in Norway calling our costings "criminal"
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.1917638.0.0.php
Proposal for a Scottish tunnel Project across Scotland similar to Norway's, which should cost far less than this one bridge
http://9percentgrowth.blogspot.co.../12/scottish-tunnels-project.html
9% Growth Party Press release yesterday
http://9percentgrowth.blogspot.co...idge-should-cost-314-million.html "
SLG

Don't expect any answers Neil.  Of the options put forward, the cable stayed bridge option does seem to be the best one, but the government are obviously not asking enough questions of their advisors who came up with these proposals.

Btw, I agree that they are bound to be able to save the existing road bridge, and they may be using it's condition to manipulate the situation, I do think it's a good think to have another crossing built anyway.
Neil

I do too, but only if it costs £40 million for a tunnel - no way is it worth £4 billion.

I got this informative response from Alex on the Herald which I think deserves further exposure
Quote:
There are a few reasons why UK construction projects cost such a ridiculously high amount.

First of all, there is the universally charged Day-Works scam, charged by every single major construction firm in the UK, which essentially doubles costs. Don't like it? Try finding a contractor who will work without it...Interstingly, it is unheard of in Japan, where I once witnessed an entire motorway built in a week.

Second of all, there is the ridiculous Health and Safety industry. Initially a decent idea as the UK had the highest rate of deaths in construction of any developed nation - now simply an industry in itself. It leads to horrendously over-engineered solutions, overspending on materials and design and huge delays in completion times. Complain about it and you're seen as someone who wants construction workers to be mangled by any piece of passing machinery. Health and Safety employs 200,000+ people in the UK. In France, it employs no-one, and they're not slow to adopt restrictive working practices.

Third of all, there is our horrifically labyrinthine planning process, brought about by there being simply too many politicians. In terms of population Greater Glasgow and Manhattan are pretty similar. Manhattan has 10 councillors; Glasgow has 328.

Fourthly, there is the cost of land in the UK. Progressive land release policies, such as the Greens' Land Tax, designed to prevent speculative land banking by housebuilders, supermarkets etc are actually a good idea, which would prevent property prices from artificially inflating - I deon't generaqlly have a lot of time for the Greens, but this is a good policy, and one that works well elsewhere.

Fifthly - there are very few skilled construction professionals in the UK, and those that are employed in the industry generally suffer from low wages, poor working conditions and often poor training. I do laugh when I hear of contractors trying to tempt school leavers to take on a career with them - abusive, one-sided contracts, no rights and short-termism are rife. Consequently, sub-contracting is everywhere.

So the next time you wonder why our major projects costs so much - simply think of the five reasons given above
SLG

Thanks for posting that Neil.  Very interesting.  I'd imagine that Westminster in responsible for the first two points, so it would seem to be logical for the SNP to turn it into an issue.  What have they got to fear by really opening this all up?

As for point five... do foreign firms not bid for such work?  Or do the issues one to four put them off doing so?
Neil

My admitedly quick & unlawyerly perusal of the Scotland act suggests we have the power to reduce regulation. Holyrood has certainly used it to increase it.

http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts1998/ukpga_19980046_en_14#sch5-pt1

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