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Dave Coull · Independentista Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2747

Neil stated that I had

Neil · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 9:53 am Post subject:

William_Cleland · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 12:01 pm Post subject:

Peak oil doesn't neatly fit the script where global warming is concerned so it is something that environmentalists actually tend to shy away from. The fact that temporarily there is enough supply right now to satisfy demand due to the onset of a recession and the credit crisis isn't going to stop oilfields like Ghawar and Burgan from declining like Cantarell in Mexico has in recent years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantarell_Field

Neil · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject:

Peak oil is inconsistent with saying increasing CO2 is a problem (not totally inconsitent since there is still coal). But supporting windmills because they produce little CO2 is inconsistent with opposing nuclear which produces less. Opposing flying in the 1970s because the exhaust dust would cause a global ice age is inconsitent with opposing it now because it will cause catastrophic warming.

Didn't stop them.

As for individual oil fields running out - that would mean little, since there are new oilfields to be found, new processes like refining tar sands to be done & 75% of the world barely explored, even if oil were not about to become renewable.
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The aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H. L. Mencken

Holebender · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:06 pm Post subject:

75% of the world barely explored? This should be good... tell us how you come to that conclusion.
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"My instinct is to agree with your opinion of his verse, but I've never so much as glanced at it." - agentmancuso

William_Cleland · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:10 pm Post subject:

I think you really need to research this topic a bit, Neil. New discoveries have lagged well behind production since the 1970s and the EROEI is nothing like as good on tar sands. Bear in mind that peak oil only means that the point is reached where production can no longer be increased.

Neil · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject:

Holebinder

It is called the sea you prat. I could also have mentioned Antarctica had I wanted to rub it in.

William

Oil from tar & shale can be produced for about $17. This is undeniable because it is being done. There is no shortage of such stuff. Nobody has & thus I assume can dispute this.
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The aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H. L. Mencken

William_Cleland · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:28 pm Post subject:

Dave Coull · Independentista Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2747

Holebender · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 3:06 pm Post subject:

Neil · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 3:09 pm Post subject:

Cost of production isn't the main issue it is the second issue. The primary issue, at least in terms of this thread, is does the oil/tar & the technology to use it exist, then comes the cost of doing so. Energy use in doing so, whether Canadians are nicer than Saudis, or comparing cold weather to desert weather are, at best, minor considerations,

Dave - no futher comment needed.
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The aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H. L. Mencken

Neil · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 3:12 pm Post subject:

Holebender · Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 3:30 pm Post subject:

OK, so you are content to spend your entire life as an obnoxious A***hole who publishes his ignorance for all to see on a daily basis. Far be it from me to prevent you from doing so, just don't expect me to try to enlighten you any further in future. Wallow in your ignorance to your heart's content, and share it with the world while you're at it.
_________________
"My instinct is to agree with your opinion of his verse, but I've never so much as glanced at it." - agentmancuso

William_Cleland · Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 11:28 am Post subject:

Neil · Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 12:44 pm Post subject:

My contention is that there is no near term peak & that in the long term oil is going to become renewable (also hydrogen from off peak nuclear is certainly feasible, improved batteries may be created & there is absolutley no shortage of energy possible in a technologicaly advanced free society).

Nothing you have said contradicts this. Oil from tar & shale are certainly possible (if only because it is being done) You no longer seem to be claiming that everybody involved in renewable oil is about to "do a runner."

I find your contention that Canada is inherently much less disposed to making money by selling oil in a free international market than Saudi Arabia strange. Have you any evidence that Canada is such an inherently more fundamentalist anti-western nation?
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The aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H. L. Mencken

William_Cleland · Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 1:25 pm Post subject:

What I pointed out is that there is only so much water available in the Athabasca River so the oil sands are not a magic bullet that is going to prevent peak oil. Beyond that most Canadian production currently is sold within North America. That is unlikely to change in future, in my opinion, so Canada isn't going to save the current structure of the global economy. At best it will help save North America's.

At no point have I said that biofuels will not be produced at some level. What I have pointed out is that oil from sources like biofuels are not going to enable the continued growth of oil consumption, which has underpinned much of the economic growth that has occurred overthe last century. I am not in any way withdrawing my comment that a lot of the start up operations in that regard are designed first and foremost to attract venture capital and that I am especially suspicious where research on algae is concerned. There is money to be made from the gullible and human nature being what it is some will find a way to exploit that fact.

Bringing hydrogen into this is moving the goalposts because peak oil is about just that, oil. I don't think we are all inevitably doomed or anything like that. All I have been saying is that major changes are lumbering over the horizon and the transition may not be all that smooth.

Neil · Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject:

There is an international market for oil & Canadians are going to sell it to the highest bidder not the most North Americann bidder.

William_Cleland · Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 2:07 pm Post subject:

Neil · Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 2:41 pm Post subject:

And if any of the people trying GM or algae production come up with a method that works & is replicable & scalable then supply will, by definition of the word "scalable", always be able to match demand.

In the same way we have yet to hit "peak chocolate biscuits".
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The aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.
H. L. Mencken

Holebender · Posted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject: