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Rinty · Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 6:04 pm Post subject:

No doubt Red. This is a by-election, so the normal rules don't apply as such. The SNP will be up for it, Labour will be dreading it. Voters who are not entrenched to one side or the other will fancy a chance of causing an upset and/or giving the Govt a bloody nose.

The downside for the SNP is the nature of the area, the fact that is is a westminster election, potential smaller protest votes going to the sorts that are attracted to byelections etc.

I just think that it is a big ask to overturn this. When Jack McConnel's seat comes up in Hamilton they have a chance as it isnt a straight working class 'scheme' constituency and they do have a strong presence there and history of good election results. But this probably the least likely seat in all of the west and central Scotland for the SNP to win.

Solidarity press conference to announce our candidate tomorrow BTW.

babykitten · Activist Joined: 21 Aug 2007 Posts: 150

October1974 · Standing in a Council Ward Joined: 11 Mar 2006 Posts: 425

Actually the SNP's first electoral success was in Motherwell in 1945
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I am not a Nationalist because I am proud to be Scottish but ashamed of the state of the country and want it improved

Amber · Helping with the Count Joined: 28 Feb 2008 Posts: 316

Interesting that Sheridan's not standing.

Dave Coull · Independentista Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2809

Rinty wrote "this probably the least likely seat in all of the west and central Scotland for the SNP to win".

There's no doubt the SNP have a huge mountain to climb, and, what's more, in a very short space of time. Notice that most of the hype about the chance of the SNP taking this seat is NOT coming from the SNP themselves, certainly not from senior SNP figures, but from various journalists, "media commentators", etc. The danger with this is that, if Labour should manage to cling on in this seat, with a much reduced majority, instead of this being seen as what it really is, a bad showing for Labour, their spin doctors will then be presenting it as "this is a seat the SNP expected to win and they got beat".

Rinty · Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 7:22 pm Post subject:

"Interesting that Sheridan's not standing."

Wow, that was quick Amber. I am still waiting to hear the outcome of the meeting!

Red Justice · Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 7:26 pm Post subject:

Dave Coull · Independentista Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 2809

October 1974 wrote “the SNP's first electoral success was in Motherwell in 1945”.

Wasn’t that a wartime by-election? There were some very unusual results from wartime by-elections. Even Trotskyists did quite well in some cases. The reason is, there was an agreement between the main UK parties not to stand against each other. The Tories, Labour, and even the Liberals were all in the wartime coalition government, and didn’t stand against their coalition partners. If an MP died, or quit for any reason, then, whichever party that MP had belonged to, that party was allowed a clear run. Even the Communist Party was supporting the coalition government, so even they didn’t put up candidates. However, in England, the Common Wealth Party was formed, by an alliance of some very left wing socialists and some stroppy dissident Liberals who disagreed with the official Liberal Party line of not standing, and the CWP actually got candidates elected even in very Conservative areas. They had 3 MPs, for Eddisbury, Skipton, and Chelmsford. All of this vanished after the war, with the return of “normal” politics. I think the SNP success at Motherwell has to be seen, like those extremely unusual results in England, as people wanting to vote against the government but being denied their usual choices. So the first real SNP success, under “normal” conditions, and against “normal” opposition, was Winnie Ewing at Hamilton.

October1974 · Standing in a Council Ward Joined: 11 Mar 2006 Posts: 425

Councillor John Mason selected for Glasgow East by the SNP

http://www.snp.org/node/14017
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I am not a Nationalist because I am proud to be Scottish but ashamed of the state of the country and want it improved

Rinty · Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 8:40 pm Post subject:

That's a good choice. He is a very popular councillor and took a very large 1st preference vote in last years election for bailieston ward.

chicmac · Standing in a Council Ward Joined: 18 Mar 2008 Posts: 459

Rinty · Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject:

Yes, but what does a similar chart for support for labour show? If it shows similar figures then it doesnt equal a disadvantage to the SNP, even if those semi-skilled and skilled manual workers do, as you claim, all go on holiday at the same time.

And, as I said, this doesnt use the terms 'working class' or 'non-working class'.

But, following the events of recent years we will see a big change to that. While I would expect the figures to be strong in the classes as they were 11 years ago, the other classes, higher and lower income bracket, will have risen since then.

But, I still don't see how this figure, even if they were up to date, shows why the timiming disadvantages the SNP, which is what you were claiming.

Rinty · Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 9:05 pm Post subject:

ex MSP Frances Curran is the SSP candidate.

Amber · Helping with the Count Joined: 28 Feb 2008 Posts: 316

Rinty · Posted: Thu Jul 03, 2008 9:36 pm Post subject:

Why would someone send an SNP supporter who is in no party with no connection to either the SSP or Solidarity emails by two other people about me?

what did the emails say? hope it is good gossip and that they are talking about me behind my back.

I think that. now that you have stated this, the courteous thing would be to forwad the emils to me. Don't you.

But I do insist that you now let me know as, if people are taping in to ther peoples private emails and distributing then it is a criminal offence and, in the current atmosphere, might be significant.

I am not a member of Glasgow Solidarity Amber and therefore was not at the meeting. I am one of several press officers and wouldnt need to be invited. It just wasnt my meeting.

chicmac · Standing in a Council Ward Joined: 18 Mar 2008 Posts: 459

chicmac · Standing in a Council Ward Joined: 18 Mar 2008 Posts: 459

William_Cleland · Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 2:34 pm Post subject:

Economist · Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2008 7:30 pm Post subject:

I just don't see the SNP winning this seat to be honest, even if they throw the "kitchen sink" at it. Labour will hold on with a fairly large, if dented, majority. That's my gut feeling anyway, but would be happy to be proved wrong. If the SNP, or anyone but Labour win here it would set of a huge political tsunami easily eclipsing Govan in 1988, which would be too good to be true.
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October1974 · Standing in a Council Ward Joined: 11 Mar 2006 Posts: 425

I understand that the expected Labour candidate Cllr Ryan appears to have taken cold feet at the last minute and Labour have had to cancel their launch tomorrow............as they have no candidate.

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I am not a Nationalist because I am proud to be Scottish but ashamed of the state of the country and want it improved