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Rinty · Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 7:35 pm Post subject: margaret curran and labour rules

Do we have any Labour party experts (or members) in the forum.

I have been told by an ex-labour member that Curran is breaking the party's own rules by standing in one parliament while holding a seat in another.

He sites David Martin MEP as the precedent. Apparently Martin wanted to stand for a seat in Holyrood but was rejected as party rules said tha he couldnt unless he reisgned his euro seat.

Anyone in a position to confirm this or not?

macnumpty · Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2008 8:51 pm Post subject:

Not an expert, but they may have got the NEC to waive the rules: there's a precedent for that as well, in Catherine Stihler MEP standing in the Dunfermline & West Fife By-Election.
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Holebender · Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:14 am Post subject:

Rules? Labour? You're joking, right?

Remember those Labour rules about declaring donations and not accepting donations from outside the UK or from third party proxies?

Seriously though, there have been several mentions in the Herald about Labour having made some sort of formal exception to their own rules to allow Ms. Curran to stand. I believe they have also removed all criticism of Alex Salmond's "two jobs" from their websites.
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Amber · Helping with the Count Joined: 28 Feb 2008 Posts: 316

There's no point getting bogged down in labour's rulebook. It's not as if these are laws.
John Mason has boundless energy and I seriously think he can beat curran. It's a tough one, given the make-up of the constituency and the voter demographic, but the SNP can do this.

Rinty · Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:09 pm Post subject:

Aye you're right Amber, re Labour rules. I am not talking about getting bogged down though. I was merely discussing it on a web forum.

I dont think Mason can win this one as the turnoput will be against him. Labour will be able to rely on a core vote, albeit it much smaller than before, and the SNP split of what is left will not be enough to turn it, in my opinion.

But, if Salmond can resign his westminster seat and force Curran to resign her baiilieston seat in holyrood I think Mason would take that one, with more run-up time to prepare. Mason has the largest first preference vote for councillors in that area, far more than the Labour councillors.

Amber · Helping with the Count Joined: 28 Feb 2008 Posts: 316

This is in fact going to be a battle between curran and Salmond, or, if the SNP can pull it off, between Salmond and Brown.
If we can focus attention in that direction, we are in with a great chance.
Believe the fringe left will collapse at this poll, with the SSP nudging it on account of some name confusion.

Rinty · Posted: Wed Jul 09, 2008 1:57 pm Post subject:

I think that all of the parties outside of the main two will be squeezed. The lib dems might do better as they can concentrate on one contituency, when it is national elections they have no presence in the area.

It is a vote about Gordon Brown. The swing to the SNP will be huge but the turnout will mean that even that will probably make it impossible for them. Curran (M) is popular in her seat so will increase slightly the labour core vote.

I do think that mason could win the baillieston holyrood seat though.

William_Cleland · Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:00 am Post subject:

Would people who want a change or who want to case a protest vote not be more likely to show up? Think a low turnout would hurt Labour more than the SNP.
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Rinty · Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:43 am Post subject:

the reason the low turn out benefits labour is that they have a huge core vote. that will reduce year on year but is still big, especially among the older vote, who are also more likely to vote.

that means the snp are fighting to change the minds of the remainder, which they will probably largely do.

If Labour can even get half of their traditional vote out, and the other parties outside of labour and SNP take a combined 20%, then all labour would have to do is persuade a small % of the remaining doubting labour voters to either vote labour or not vote and the SNP will be unable to get enough votes to win.

From my experience of elections, and I have done this for years, those who say that they want or need a change are often the same people who dont vote. The smaller parties, right and left, for instance, have a huge support among those who dont vote!

Fedayn