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William_Cleland
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 19, 2009 1:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Pitsligo wrote:
Reluctant Hero wrote:

Where is all this money coming from?


Our children.


The last resort in these situations is often to deliberately cause massive inflation to reduce the value of the debt held by foreign creditors.



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azzuri
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 19, 2009 11:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem isn't even so much the public (government) debt, but the private debt. It's truly scary.
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"Gordon Brown mistook a glut of cheap money and a global bull market for his own administrative genius. In so doing, he wrecked the economy. Had the Prime Minister been running a company, instead of a country, he would be facing an inquiry into allegations of criminal negligence." - Jeff Randal

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"There are four ways to spend money. A) You can spend your money on yourself, in which case you will strive for a mix of the best bargain and the best quality. B) You can spend your money on someone else, in which case you are still interested in a bargain, but the quality of the product or service becomes secondary. C) You can spend other people's money on yourself, in which case price is no object but quality becomes a great concern. D) Finally, you can spend other people's money on other people, in which case neither price nor quality is of great concern."

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Reluctant Hero
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 19, 2009 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like the last days of RBS as a publicly owned company.  Its shares fell a massive 67% today after announcing after saying its loss this year would be in the region of £8bn.  A record in British corporate history.
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magister ludi
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 2:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bankers...eh?

Here's a little nugget that didn't get much coverage in the UK media:

( not something to do with bad publicity of illegal activities just as Lloyds approached the final hurdle of their HBOs take-over?)

A Justice Department statement said Lloyd's "has accepted and acknowledged responsibility for its criminal conduct" in a criminal complaint filed in US District Court in New York.

The bank agreed to forfeit 175 million dollars to the United States and 175 million to New York County.

"Lloyds agreed to forfeit the funds as part of deferred prosecution agreements with the Department of Justice and the New York County District Attorney's Office,"


http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Lloy...US_fine_of_350_mln__01102009.html


Just as a matter of interest.....who picks up the tab for the $350 million......the shareholders.....the tax payer?....... or the fat cats responsible?
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William_Cleland
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 3:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All the idiots who used to go on about deregulation and the wonders of the Anglo-Saxon economic model compared to the Franco-German one deserve the "round them up, put in a field and bomb the b***ards" treatment that Kenny Everett used to go on about (may be showing my age with age with that). Two things to watch are that if you get made unemployed the government is only obligated to help you with mortgage payment at the Bank of England rate. Bear in mind that recent cuts in that regard have not been passed onto consumers by the "High Street banks" and that is liable to make mortgage payments impossible for a lot of people with no cash in reserve. Secondly if as is likely the economy is deliberately inflated over the next few years to reduce the value of debt, people who were sensible enough to save rather than borrow, are going to have their life savings wiped out if they hold it in pounds sterling. If you do happen to have a cash nest egg set aside I would be looking for ways to move it into other currencies or something like gold.
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William_Cleland
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 3:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reluctant Hero wrote:
Looks like the last days of RBS as a publicly owned company.  Its shares fell a massive 67% today after announcing after saying its loss this year would be in the region of £8bn.  A record in British corporate history.


Get the magnifying glass out if you want to find it on the BBC website. Much more eye catching stories about problems in the eurozone and Zimbabwe on the business page:-  

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/default.stm

because only Johnny Foreigner experiences monumental fiscal cockups and I really do believe them on the inflation thing and don't think that is being talked down to avoid a run on the currency. Have Labour had a hidden far left agenda all along to nationalise the banks by stealth and bring about the end of British mercantile capitalism. I think we should be told? Smile
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azzuri
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

William_Cleland wrote:
All the idiots who used to go on about deregulation and the wonders of the Anglo-Saxon economic model compared to the Franco-German one deserve the "round them up, put in a field and bomb the b***ards" treatment that Kenny Everett used to go on about (may be showing my age with age with that). Two things to watch are that if you get made unemployed the government is only obligated to help you with mortgage payment at the Bank of England rate. Bear in mind that recent cuts in that regard have not been passed onto consumers by the "High Street banks" and that is liable to make mortgage payments impossible for a lot of people with no cash in reserve. Secondly if as is likely the economy is deliberately inflated over the next few years to reduce the value of debt, people who were sensible enough to save rather than borrow, are going to have their life savings wiped out if they hold it in pounds sterling. If you do happen to have a cash nest egg set aside I would be looking for ways to move it into other currencies or something like gold.


I'm now erring on the side of deflation, simply because of the debt level. If you think about it, you eventually reach the conclusion that ALL debt is inherently deflationary, and that the end game of this whole mess must end in deflation.

Where are the wage rises going to come from for inflation? The government can't give more cash in benefits as they're giving it all to the banks! People aren't even spending money as quickly, so the velocity of money has slowed down. Hoard cash and hedge with a little gold (10-15% net worth) just in case crash Gordon decides to go mental and make Sterling worthless. In that case anyway, we'll end up in a trade war and possibly a REAL war against China who hold Sterling-denominated debt.
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"Gordon Brown mistook a glut of cheap money and a global bull market for his own administrative genius. In so doing, he wrecked the economy. Had the Prime Minister been running a company, instead of a country, he would be facing an inquiry into allegations of criminal negligence." - Jeff Randal

"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury." - Alexander Tytler

"There are four ways to spend money. A) You can spend your money on yourself, in which case you will strive for a mix of the best bargain and the best quality. B) You can spend your money on someone else, in which case you are still interested in a bargain, but the quality of the product or service becomes secondary. C) You can spend other people's money on yourself, in which case price is no object but quality becomes a great concern. D) Finally, you can spend other people's money on other people, in which case neither price nor quality is of great concern."

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William_Cleland
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All you have to do to create hyper-inflation is to turn on the printing presses. Given the moronic decision making that got the UK to this point I don't think it is safe to assume that the politicians are responsible enough not to try a bit of that if they are faced with imposing draconian spending cut and tax increases.
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azzuri
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hyperinflation is VERY unlikely now. This can only happen when the velocity of money is high. It's not, it's very very low. Plus, the prices of government bonds have slumped, this will eventually raise interest rates and reign inflation in.
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"Gordon Brown mistook a glut of cheap money and a global bull market for his own administrative genius. In so doing, he wrecked the economy. Had the Prime Minister been running a company, instead of a country, he would be facing an inquiry into allegations of criminal negligence." - Jeff Randal

"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury." - Alexander Tytler

"There are four ways to spend money. A) You can spend your money on yourself, in which case you will strive for a mix of the best bargain and the best quality. B) You can spend your money on someone else, in which case you are still interested in a bargain, but the quality of the product or service becomes secondary. C) You can spend other people's money on yourself, in which case price is no object but quality becomes a great concern. D) Finally, you can spend other people's money on other people, in which case neither price nor quality is of great concern."

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William_Cleland
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are a politician. For the sake of argument let's call you Gordon. You face a general election in the not too distant future. Foreign lenders are telling you to get to a place rhyming with luck given the global credit crunch, with a sinking economy you do not have enough tax revenue to meet government expenses and to service all the debt that has been accumulated through past deficit spending and bank buyouts. What would you do? Announce draconian cuts to government services and benefits and raise taxes on those still lucky enough to be in employment or turn the printing presses on where pound sterling is concerned? Answers on a postcard to Bob Mugabe of Harare.
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azzuri
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 20, 2009 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

William_Cleland wrote:
You are a politician. For the sake of argument let's call you Gordon. You face a general election in the not too distant future. Foreign lenders are telling you to get to a place rhyming with luck given the global credit crunch, with a sinking economy you do not have enough tax revenue to meet government expenses and to service all the debt that has been accumulated through past deficit spending and bank buyouts. What would you do? Announce draconian cuts to government services and benefits and raise taxes on those still lucky enough to be in employment or turn the printing presses on where pound sterling is concerned? Answers on a postcard to Bob Mugabe of Harare.


Politicians are almost human. Brown knows turning on the printing presses will completely destroy Sterling, once the world's reserve currency and it would completely destroy his 'legacy' forever. He would be the man that destroyed Sterling. I think you underestimate how much Brown wants to be remembered as being prudent (even though he's been anything but).

IF he was to do it though, then foreign trade would stop almost overnight, because no one would take sterling any longer and in the meantime, while it is being exchanged for other currencies it would be completely routed and thus worth nothing. There are no consequences that would suit Brown, Labour OR Britain from turning on the printing presses, and Brown knows it. I simply can't see it WC.
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"Gordon Brown mistook a glut of cheap money and a global bull market for his own administrative genius. In so doing, he wrecked the economy. Had the Prime Minister been running a company, instead of a country, he would be facing an inquiry into allegations of criminal negligence." - Jeff Randal

"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury." - Alexander Tytler

"There are four ways to spend money. A) You can spend your money on yourself, in which case you will strive for a mix of the best bargain and the best quality. B) You can spend your money on someone else, in which case you are still interested in a bargain, but the quality of the product or service becomes secondary. C) You can spend other people's money on yourself, in which case price is no object but quality becomes a great concern. D) Finally, you can spend other people's money on other people, in which case neither price nor quality is of great concern."

Possibly the funniest site in the world, 'The Daily Mash' - http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/
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William_Cleland
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 1:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

azzuri wrote:
Brown knows turning on the printing presses will completely destroy Sterling, ....


See my latest mental quote signature for why I am skeptical on that. I suspect he is enough of an egomaniac that he will think that he is the financial genius, who can find a way to make it work, at least for long enough for Labour to win or perhaps even better from their standpoint to have a face saving degree of defeat in the upcoming general election. It would have been better if things had started to unravel just after an election so a majority party could adopt a 2 to 3 years of pain plan leading to signs of recovery just in time to get reelected approach rather than having a blind panic driven hold it more or less together until we get reelected set of policies.

In years gone by Britain had coal and colonies like India to make it rich in relative terms and then after stuff like the three day week and calling in the IMF in the 70s there was oil and gas from the North Sea in the last couple of decades. With that in decline now, the Empire long gone and much of the manufacturing sector having fallen victim to Thatcherism and a Dutch disease economy there isn't much to keep the whole deck of cards standing these days if the financial services sector does monumentally stupid things that require a government bailout.

Bear in mind that a way is still going to have to be found to keep the lights and heat on when all the coal powered and nuclear plants that were built by nationalised industries before the family silver was sold off by Maggie T, finally have to be replaced. The money that will be wasted servicing the debt built up to bail out the banks should have been going towards key infrastructure projects like that. The big question on a board like this should maybe be why Alex Salmond is not clearly articulating this stuff to the Scottish electorate. Is he really in it to achieve independence or is it all just a career to him and the other MSPs?
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 21, 2009 10:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

magister ludi wrote:
bankers...eh?


I couldn't believe what I heard today!

RBS, who the taxpayers have just bailed out with a substantial amount of money, are just about to piss away another £20,000,000 by extending their sponsorship of the Six Nations Tournament.

It is just beyond believe.

http://sport.scotsman.com/sport/S...RBS-commits-20-million.4895900.jp
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, it's official.  The recession has landed.

And the pound and the FTSE fall to significant levels.  The FTSE below 4000 and the pound to its lowest level in 24 years.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7846266.stm
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Scott2006
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
From Times Online February 19, 2009

Bailed-out banks to add £1.5 trillion to public debt
(Lewis Whyld/PA) Grainne Gilmore

Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds TSB, the two banks bailed out by the Government, are to add between £1 trillion and £1.5 trillion to the public debt, the equivalent of between 70 and 100 per cent of GDP, the Office for National Statistics indicated this morning.

Britain’s public sector net debt is already a record high, hitting 47.8 per cent of GDP in January, official figures show. This is the highest level of debt recorded since the ONS started recording data in 1993.

The ONS said that it had decided to add the banks to the Government's books because "the Government has the ability to control the respective banks’ general corporate policy through the conditions associated with the agreements signed relating to recapitalisation."

However the dismal figures do not paint the whole picture, as all the liabilities of the banks are added to the public books, and only the liquid assets are taken into account. The capital assets are not included.

The ONS said this method was used to reflect the extent to which the Government could cover its debts by realising its assets in the short-term.

Howard Archer, of IHS Global Insight, the economic consultancy, said: "Given the rate at which the UK public finances are deteriorating and new measures are having to be introduced to try to support the financial sector and the economy, it is frankly anyone's guess as to how high the public deficits may go over the next couple of years."

The massive debt will cause problems for the Government, which has already seen Northern Rock's debts added to its accounts. Analysts said that it would probably have to revise up its borrowing forecasts in April's budget.

Andrew Goodwin, Senior Economic Adviser to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, said: "We expect the Chancellor to be forced to make significant upward revisions to his borrowing projections when he presents the Budget."

This came as the public finances deteriorated further in January. January is usually a strong month for tax income but the public sector repaid a net £3.3 billion over the month, well below £13.9 billion a year earlier, the ONS said.

Between April 2008 and January 2009, the public sector recorded a deficit of £42.5 billion. At the same stage of the 2007-08 financial year, a deficit of £7.0 billion had been recorded.

Mr Archer said: "The public finances for January are terrible, coming in even worse than feared. January always sees a surplus on the public finances at is a bumper month for tax receipts.

"Unfortunately though, bumper hardly describes the tax receipts for this January as they have been decimated by sharply contracting economic activity, declining profitability, rising unemployment, reduced bonus payments, December's VAT cut and substantially weakened housing market activity and prices."


Tax receipts have slumped by 11 per cent as a result of the downturn, with income tax receipts falling 3 per cent compared to January 2008, VAT down 11 per cent and corporation tax receipts down 21 per cent.


£1.5 trillion (£1,500 billion or £1,500,000 million) and rising, Brown's Recession/Depression (£1,500,000 million spread across 60 million people gives £250,000 £25,000 per person increase in unsustainable national debt) is now and for the forseeable future undermine Labour's in/competence as some sort of Brown Debt Folly. To paraphrase D:Ream, "Things can only get worse."

EDIT: Yes, Azzuri it is an extra £25,000 per person... but expected to rise even more as Brown burns the fixtures and fittings to keep the Depression at bay.
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azzuri
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

...is it not £25,000 per person?

1,500,000/60 = 25,000

I just had to recalculate, since I can't believe that any foreigners would actually buy government bonds if it were above £50k per person.
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"Gordon Brown mistook a glut of cheap money and a global bull market for his own administrative genius. In so doing, he wrecked the economy. Had the Prime Minister been running a company, instead of a country, he would be facing an inquiry into allegations of criminal negligence." - Jeff Randal

"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury." - Alexander Tytler

"There are four ways to spend money. A) You can spend your money on yourself, in which case you will strive for a mix of the best bargain and the best quality. B) You can spend your money on someone else, in which case you are still interested in a bargain, but the quality of the product or service becomes secondary. C) You can spend other people's money on yourself, in which case price is no object but quality becomes a great concern. D) Finally, you can spend other people's money on other people, in which case neither price nor quality is of great concern."

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Dave Coull
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wrote:
You said you're a teacher, Jamesie? On the basis of what you have said, there are THREE subjects you might have difficulty teaching. The three subjects are English, Mathematics, and History.

First, English. You used the term "thousands of years ago". "Thousands" is what is known as a "plural". By adding the "s" on the end, you are saying "at least two". By saying "thousands of years ago", you were saying "at least two thousand years ago". Yet you appear not to understand that.

Second, Mathematics. Admittedly, "a few" is not a precise mathematical term, but if we are dealing in the CONTRAST with "thousandS of years ago", then anything less than one thousand years ago can certainly be described as "a few hundred", simply on the grounds that it is numbered in hundreds, and not in thousands.
Scott2006 wrote:
£1,500,000 million spread across 60 million people gives £250,000 per person
azzuri wrote:
...is it not £25,000 per person?

1,500,000/60 = 25,000
Scott2006 wrote:
Yes, Azzuri it is

You went to the school where Jamesie teaches, didn't you?
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Scott2006
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At least I can admit where and when I make a mistake in stead of fighting to be king of the dung hill - which is more your style it seems.
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azzuri
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

...easy mistake to make, I've done it plenty of times. Just another zero added on after all Scott.

What is important to remember is that although said assets on the balance sheet might be worth less than the government paid for them, they won't be worth zero.
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"Gordon Brown mistook a glut of cheap money and a global bull market for his own administrative genius. In so doing, he wrecked the economy. Had the Prime Minister been running a company, instead of a country, he would be facing an inquiry into allegations of criminal negligence." - Jeff Randal

"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury." - Alexander Tytler

"There are four ways to spend money. A) You can spend your money on yourself, in which case you will strive for a mix of the best bargain and the best quality. B) You can spend your money on someone else, in which case you are still interested in a bargain, but the quality of the product or service becomes secondary. C) You can spend other people's money on yourself, in which case price is no object but quality becomes a great concern. D) Finally, you can spend other people's money on other people, in which case neither price nor quality is of great concern."

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Dave Coull
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 19, 2009 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Scott2006 wrote:
At least I can admit where and when I make a mistake instead of fighting to be king of the dung hill - which is more your style it seems.
My goodness gracious, but you're touchy! It was a JOKE. Maybe if I had taken the trouble to put one of them smiley faces with it, you would have realised it was a joke, instead of taking it so seriously and going in a huff and responding with a personal attack. As it happens, if somebody points something out to me, AND if I think they have a point, I do admit it: for instance, yesterday
Holebender wrote:
Dave Coull promoting a petition... did I slip through into some parallel universe during the night?
and
I wrote:
Okay, I admit it, I'm not being consistent.



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