| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Please Register and Login to this forum to stop seeing this advertsing.
|
![]() Posted: Post subject: |
|
|
|
|
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
George
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 02 May 2006
Posts: 767
|
 Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 12:17 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
30% Labour versus 19.5% SNP.
Labour voters who are asking themselves if they should abstain or vote will constitute a large proportion of the 41% undecideds.
I originally thought that Labour would hold this seat comfortably, with the SNP gaining substantially.
However, it looks as though the SNP should be statistical favourites.
Interestingly Paddy Power have the SNP at 8/11 - although we remember how off the mark the bookies were with Glenrothes. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Stevie
Independentist
Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 1226
|
| Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 12:31 pm Post subject: |
|
|
If they're still undecided at this stage don't get your hopes up.
I don't see what you mean by the SNP being statistical favourites.
_________________
Every man dies, not every man really lives.
Alba gu bràth! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
George
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 02 May 2006
Posts: 767
|
| Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 4:41 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Bravehand wrote: | If they're still undecided at this stage don't get your hopes up.
I don't see what you mean by the SNP being statistical favourites. |
What I meant is that these undecideds are probably not going to opt for Labour. Many of them will be considering abstaining, the vast majority of the remainder will go to the SNP.
So, the probability is that the SNP support will rise dramatically from this figure of 19.5%, whilst the Labour vote might increase marginally.
The undecided's were the ones that eventually opted for the SNP in Glasgow East. These figures suggest to me a similar outcome for the SNP, who, despite this will campaign on a 'take nothing for granted' platform.
The new Alistair Darling revelations have simply compouned Labour's woe's. It is being reported that Brown is now willing to sacrifice this seat in order to free up the ground prior to a general election. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Stevie
Independentist
Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 1226
|
| Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 5:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Conservative : 40%
Labour : 18%
Libs : 18%
MORI POLL (before Darling's expenses fiddle)
UK poll but no idea what's happening in Scotland.
Not sure I fully agree that the undecided won't vote Labour, why wouldn't they?
If they're still undecided then that's a more likely vote for Labour than against I think.
_________________
Every man dies, not every man really lives.
Alba gu bràth! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chicmac
Standing in a Council Ward
Joined: 18 Mar 2008
Posts: 464
|
| Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2009 11:28 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| George wrote: | | Bravehand wrote: | If they're still undecided at this stage don't get your hopes up.
I don't see what you mean by the SNP being statistical favourites. |
What I meant is that these undecideds are probably not going to opt for Labour. Many of them will be considering abstaining, the vast majority of the remainder will go to the SNP.
So, the probability is that the SNP support will rise dramatically from this figure of 19.5%, whilst the Labour vote might increase marginally.
The undecided's were the ones that eventually opted for the SNP in Glasgow East. These figures suggest to me a similar outcome for the SNP, who, despite this will campaign on a 'take nothing for granted' platform.
The new Alistair Darling revelations have simply compouned Labour's woe's. It is being reported that Brown is now willing to sacrifice this seat in order to free up the ground prior to a general election. |
A lot of the DKs are 'reserve' left votes (around 7%) who are considering voting Labour instead.
It is completely unlike Glasgow East.
There is no chance.
_________________
"We have catcht hold of Scotland and would keep her fast." - Speaker, HoC, 1713
"No great mischief if they [Scottish soldiers] fall. How can you better employ a secret enemy than by making his end conducive to the common good?" - Wolfe, Canada, 1751 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3188
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
George
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 02 May 2006
Posts: 767
|
| Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 8:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
My scientific way of determining the election date is to watch when The Herald starts to produce more overtly anti SNP headlines, less balanced and informative.
The Herald have now started them, on that basis my guess is the earlier of the two dates.
There, that's my prediction. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3188
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
October1974
Standing in a Council Ward
Joined: 11 Mar 2006
Posts: 426
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3188
|
| Posted: Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:56 pm Post subject: |
|
|
According to SNP Tactical Voting, James Dornan, councillor for Langside is going to be the SNP candidate.
http://www.snptacticalvoting.com/...ornan-to-stand-for-snp-in-by.html
On a side note, surely it is not right that we have to wait until November to get this sorted out. Does anyone know what the time limit is to have a by-election? Tens of thousands of pounds will be spent on it, then the whole thing will have to be done barely 6 months later.
_________________
Visit the Our Scotland Blog at http://our-scotland.blogspot.com/ |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Cruachan
Helping with the Count
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 296
Location: The English Midlands
|
| Posted: Wed Jul 08, 2009 8:35 am Post subject: |
|
|
Looks like a good choice to me. Views?
The Scottish National Party has tonight selected City Councillor and
Glasgow’s Opposition leader James Dornan as the party’s candidate for the upcoming Glasgow North East by-election.
The Glasgow North East seat is vacant following the resignation of former speaker Michael Martin. No date for the by-election has been set with Labour suggesting they will delay the vote until November.
Cllr Dornan (56), who has two grown up children and two grandchildren represents the Langside ward in the city and became leader of the SNP Group on Glasgow Council following the election of John Mason as SNP MP for Glasgow East in 2008
_________________
IT'S TIME.
http://loosechange-cruachan.blogspot.com/ |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3188
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Shagpile
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 03 Jan 2006
Posts: 800
|
| Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2009 7:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Unionist FEAR!
Testimony that Labour voters are pee'd off wi' Labour in Scotland. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2845
|
| Posted: Sat Aug 15, 2009 10:42 am Post subject: |
|
|
From today's report in the Scotsman about the Tory choice of candidate for this by election | Quote: | insiders have joked that Ms Davidson is "everything that David Kerr dislikes".
Mr Kerr is a member of the controversial conservative Roman Catholic group Opus Dei, which has been accused of being homophobic and anti-women.
Not only is Ms Davidson, 30, a Unionist, she is also a lesbian living with her partner in Partick. And she is a Protestant, who used to help out in her church as a Sunday school teacher. |
http://news.scotsman.com/politics...journalists-to-compete.5553757.jp |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Reluctant Hero
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 3188
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
urchurdan
Finding Ma' Way
Joined: 13 Aug 2009
Posts: 18
Location: SCOTLAND
|
| Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2009 8:53 pm Post subject: Smeaton |
|
|
| Reluctant Hero wrote: |
If he is lucky he may scrape a few more votes than the Monster Raving Loony Party, but not much more. |
He is a staunch Rangers man isn't he? I doubt that will go down well in the east of Glasgow, I would like to think it wouldn't make a difference in this day and age, but......
Anyway, he 'may' split the socialist vote a bit, however he is a very poor candidate though, I wouldn't think he will be taken very seriously, but you never know, the 'Smeato' effect might get him votes...
_________________
'You can smell Independence in the air now.' A quote from Ian Hamilton (one of the students who repatriated the Stone of Destiny) during a Lecture delivered at The Gathering in Edinburgh 2009. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Alasdair
Our Scotland = 2nd Job!
Joined: 01 May 2008
Posts: 1040
Location: Clydesdale
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Dave Coull
Independentista
Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2845
|
| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 1:04 am Post subject: Re: Smeaton |
|
|
| urchurdan wrote: | | He is a staunch Rangers man isn't he? I doubt that will go down well in the east of Glasgow |
Believe it or not, there are some Rangers fans in the east of Glasgow. Besides, he recently got married to a girl called Christy MacPhedran, and she is Catholic, and there has been a rumour that Smeato might even convert to his wife's denomination. Whether that rumour is true or not, having a Catholic wife could take the edge off hostility to him being a Rangers fan.
So, there's Smeato, there's the Opus Dei/SNP candidate, there's the Lesbian protestant Sunday School teacher Tory candidate, there's Tommy Sheridan, there's the BNP........
Oh yes, and there's the boring old Labour Party. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Aventinian
1 Strike
Joined: 10 Dec 2005
Posts: 5574
Location: Oh, I get about a bit.
|
| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 12:37 pm Post subject: Re: Smeaton |
|
|
| Dave Coull wrote: | So, there's Smeato, there's the Opus Dei/SNP candidate, there's the Lesbian protestant Sunday School teacher Tory candidate, there's Tommy Sheridan, there's the BNP........
Oh yes, and there's the boring old Labour Party. |
What a byelection this is going to be, if Labour ever actually move the writ.
Not to mention John Swinburne, fairly high profile, running for the SSCUP. I wonder if the so-called Scottish Unionist Party will stand again... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rinty
Jim Baxter is God...........really!!!!
Joined: 19 Sep 2005
Posts: 3621
Location: SW Scotland
|
| Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 2:25 pm Post subject: |
|
|
urchurdan, how could smeaton split the socialist vote? he has right wing views, which he spouts in the sun and no-one would surely associate him as a socialist candidate.
He will now be dealing with political journalist and as he is standing as a more trustworthy candidate than exisiting politicians then he will see his story about what happened at Glasgow airport scrutinised. It was fun while it lasted 
 http://video.stv.tv/bc/news-250909-smeatongrilled/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/u...-John-Smeaton-branded-a-fake.html
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Join! (free) 
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
