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Stevie
Independentist
Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 1179
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 Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 1:36 am Post subject: |
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Now you're just waffling on and on, speak when you have something to say.
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Every man dies, not every man really lives.
Alba gu brąth! |
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azzuri
'Our Scotland' Fossil
Joined: 12 Sep 2005
Posts: 4291
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| Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 2:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Ultra wrote: | | azzuri wrote: | | Ultra wrote: |
Even better the BOE rate is 0.5% and mortgages not much higher. So it really is a good time to buy and pick up a bargain. |
The housing market is currently in a classic 'bull-trap' phase. Unless we get hyperinflation, I expect anyone who trades up atm to regret that decision in a few years time.
"When the last bear turns bull" and all that.
In my humble opinion of course.. |
Azzuri, it all depends on why you buy a house in the first place.
To make a profit or to live in as a home?
I bought this house for fixed price and it is still worth far more than I paid for it 2 years ago.
My next house will be my last one hopefully. So in 20 years time when the mortgage is paid off I have something substantial and worth money to leave to my family.
It's the chance you take when you buy a house whether the rates remain the same or the house prices rise or fall. Generally speaking houses in the same area rise and fall at the same rate. But least I ain't paying rent each month for something which will never be mine and could be repossessed if the landlord doesn't pay his mortgage.
So if you are looking to trade up, the prices have come down and have started to rise again. More places are going on the market and more mortgages are becoming available.
Houses are long term investments too. So what happens in a few years doesn't really matter to rates and prices doesn't really matter unless I am looking to sell.
Things like negative equity only becomes an issue when you are looking to sell. Just because your house price has fallen doesn't mean you will be paying more each month to your mortgage. |
With all due respect, this is nonsense. Of course, if you buy a house and want to stay in it forever then the price is irrelevant. But that's not true for the economy as a whole.
If you do not own a home; you obviously would like home prices to be low, just as you want iPOD prices to be low, petrol prices to be low, milk, cheese and egg prices to be low and flight prices to be low.
Buyers never want prices high for obvious reasons, yet everything the government has done is intended to do one and only one thing: attempt to prop up a popped asset bubble that their policies created in the first place.
Economics; however, cannot be fooled, and the bubble will burst, one way or another. The whole UK banking system is currently insolvent, as we've seen with yet another £31billion handout, whilst the banks are still promising bonuses. The next boom in the banking system will happen most probably next year, forcing the government to lend more to the banks, with foreign investors losing faith in UK gilts thus pushing bond prices higher, and REAL interest rates higher too. Despite the base rate being only 0.5%, I can get a fixed 5 year bond @ 4.95%, a 4.45% spread. This shows that interest rates are now being set by banks individually and the BOE may as well be pissing into the wind when they try and manipulate rates.
Lets take a look at the history to see what is going to happen, shall we?!;
http://financialgetaway.com/interest_only_in_your_best_interest.htm
Sound familiar to anyone?! Watch US Citibank and RBS next year, I expect them to detonate at some point in 2010.
One of the main reasons this whole crisis has occurred and has still largely to unfold is due to the lack of prudent lending. One of the definitions of "prudent lending" is not to lend beyond the current value of a given asset, with any such "excess amount" requiring a pound-for-pound reserve of the bank's own capital. Whether the loan/mortgage is being paid or not is completely irrelevant, it still has a huge effect on the economy and asset prices; here's why:
With residential and commercial property, if the lender has loaned beyond the asset value you're doomed, because it is not possible to have a reasonable expectation that the borrower will continue to perform, even if they are currently doing so!
Why?
Primarily because demanded rents cannot be maintained.
Take two pieces of commercial property across the street from one another. Both started with a "value" of £1 million. Both now have a "present value" of £500,000. Both are identical - in the same location, on opposite sides of the same road, both have the same square footage and amenities.
One of the owners is bankrupted, and the property sold - for £500,000. That buyer personally finances the £500,000 purchase.
The second is "worked out" instead of demanding that the borrower either be bankrupted or make up the other £500,000 (which he doesn't have), and the bank rolls the loan at a negative equity position of £500,000.
What happens?
Tenants start to go out of business. As space opens in the £500,000 property, those in the £1m property see the open space. So do potential new tenants.
Is the rent in the £500,000 property going to be higher or lower than the rent in the £1m property?
How many of the £1m property spaces will be rented one, two, three or five years from now, compared to the £500,000 property?
What is going to happen to that £1m loan? Well, the bank themselves need to swallow the loss and keep the spare capital on reserve in case said property goes under, which means they can't lend it out and release the money into the economy!
We're only at the start of the largest unwinding of a property asset bubble in the UK's history. Don't; for god's sake, buy a house and expect it to be worth the same or more in 5 years time! Unless of course you expect hyperinflation, in which case we're all screwed anyway, last one out please turn off the lights.
_________________
"Gordon Brown mistook a glut of cheap money and a global bull market for his own administrative genius. In so doing, he wrecked the economy. Had the Prime Minister been running a company, instead of a country, he would be facing an inquiry into allegations of criminal negligence." - Jeff Randal
"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until a majority of voters discover that they can vote themselves largess out of the public treasury." - Alexander Tytler
"There are four ways to spend money. A) You can spend your money on yourself, in which case you will strive for a mix of the best bargain and the best quality. B) You can spend your money on someone else, in which case you are still interested in a bargain, but the quality of the product or service becomes secondary. C) You can spend other people's money on yourself, in which case price is no object but quality becomes a great concern. D) Finally, you can spend other people's money on other people, in which case neither price nor quality is of great concern."
Possibly the funniest site in the world, 'The Daily Mash' - http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/ |
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landg
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 617
Location: awaiting approval by a mod/admin
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| Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 7:16 pm Post subject: |
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| azzuri wrote: | | Ultra wrote: | | azzuri wrote: | | Ultra wrote: |
Even better the BOE rate is 0.5% and mortgages not much higher. So it really is a good time to buy and pick up a bargain. |
The housing market is currently in a classic 'bull-trap' phase. Unless we get hyperinflation, I expect anyone who trades up atm to regret that decision in a few years time.
"When the last bear turns bull" and all that.
In my humble opinion of course.. |
Azzuri, it all depends on why you buy a house in the first place.
To make a profit or to live in as a home?
I bought this house for fixed price and it is still worth far more than I paid for it 2 years ago.
My next house will be my last one hopefully. So in 20 years time when the mortgage is paid off I have something substantial and worth money to leave to my family.
It's the chance you take when you buy a house whether the rates remain the same or the house prices rise or fall. Generally speaking houses in the same area rise and fall at the same rate. But least I ain't paying rent each month for something which will never be mine and could be repossessed if the landlord doesn't pay his mortgage.
So if you are looking to trade up, the prices have come down and have started to rise again. More places are going on the market and more mortgages are becoming available.
Houses are long term investments too. So what happens in a few years doesn't really matter to rates and prices doesn't really matter unless I am looking to sell.
Things like negative equity only becomes an issue when you are looking to sell. Just because your house price has fallen doesn't mean you will be paying more each month to your mortgage. |
With all due respect, this is nonsense. Of course, if you buy a house and want to stay in it forever then the price is irrelevant. But that's not true for the economy as a whole.
If you do not own a home; you obviously would like home prices to be low, just as you want iPOD prices to be low, petrol prices to be low, milk, cheese and egg prices to be low and flight prices to be low.
Buyers never want prices high for obvious reasons, yet everything the government has done is intended to do one and only one thing: attempt to prop up a popped asset bubble that their policies created in the first place.
Economics; however, cannot be fooled, and the bubble will burst, one way or another. The whole UK banking system is currently insolvent, as we've seen with yet another £31billion handout, whilst the banks are still promising bonuses. The next boom in the banking system will happen most probably next year, forcing the government to lend more to the banks, with foreign investors losing faith in UK gilts thus pushing bond prices higher, and REAL interest rates higher too. Despite the base rate being only 0.5%, I can get a fixed 5 year bond @ 4.95%, a 4.45% spread. This shows that interest rates are now being set by banks individually and the BOE may as well be pissing into the wind when they try and manipulate rates.
Lets take a look at the history to see what is going to happen, shall we?!;
http://financialgetaway.com/interest_only_in_your_best_interest.htm
Sound familiar to anyone?! Watch US Citibank and RBS next year, I expect them to detonate at some point in 2010.
One of the main reasons this whole crisis has occurred and has still largely to unfold is due to the lack of prudent lending. One of the definitions of "prudent lending" is not to lend beyond the current value of a given asset, with any such "excess amount" requiring a pound-for-pound reserve of the bank's own capital. Whether the loan/mortgage is being paid or not is completely irrelevant, it still has a huge effect on the economy and asset prices; here's why:
With residential and commercial property, if the lender has loaned beyond the asset value you're doomed, because it is not possible to have a reasonable expectation that the borrower will continue to perform, even if they are currently doing so!
Why?
Primarily because demanded rents cannot be maintained.
Take two pieces of commercial property across the street from one another. Both started with a "value" of £1 million. Both now have a "present value" of £500,000. Both are identical - in the same location, on opposite sides of the same road, both have the same square footage and amenities.
One of the owners is bankrupted, and the property sold - for £500,000. That buyer personally finances the £500,000 purchase.
The second is "worked out" instead of demanding that the borrower either be bankrupted or make up the other £500,000 (which he doesn't have), and the bank rolls the loan at a negative equity position of £500,000.
What happens?
Tenants start to go out of business. As space opens in the £500,000 property, those in the £1m property see the open space. So do potential new tenants.
Is the rent in the £500,000 property going to be higher or lower than the rent in the £1m property?
How many of the £1m property spaces will be rented one, two, three or five years from now, compared to the £500,000 property?
What is going to happen to that £1m loan? Well, the bank themselves need to swallow the loss and keep the spare capital on reserve in case said property goes under, which means they can't lend it out and release the money into the economy!
We're only at the start of the largest unwinding of a property asset bubble in the UK's history. Don't; for god's sake, buy a house and expect it to be worth the same or more in 5 years time! Unless of course you expect hyperinflation, in which case we're all screwed anyway, last one out please turn off the lights. |
property always has been and a;ways will be a fantastic long term investment. |
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Holebender
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 04 Apr 2007
Posts: 2752
Location: Here or There
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| Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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Could I ask fellow posters not to quote a long post in its entirety, only to add a one-liner at the end? Why not just quote the part you are responding to, or even don't quote anything but just make your reply?
_________________
"My instinct is to agree with your opinion of his verse, but I've never so much as glanced at it." - agentmancuso |
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landg
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 617
Location: awaiting approval by a mod/admin
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| Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:40 pm Post subject: |
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speaks for itself.  |
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Holebender
Ready For Afterlife!
Joined: 04 Apr 2007
Posts: 2752
Location: Here or There
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| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 10:46 am Post subject: |
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Very amusing. You're still an idiot.
_________________
"My instinct is to agree with your opinion of his verse, but I've never so much as glanced at it." - agentmancuso |
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landg
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 617
Location: awaiting approval by a mod/admin
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| Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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AYE!  |
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Ultra
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 29 Sep 2009
Posts: 652
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| Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:52 pm Post subject: |
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| azzuri wrote: | | Ultra wrote: | | azzuri wrote: | | Ultra wrote: |
Even better the BOE rate is 0.5% and mortgages not much higher. So it really is a good time to buy and pick up a bargain. |
The housing market is currently in a classic 'bull-trap' phase. Unless we get hyperinflation, I expect anyone who trades up atm to regret that decision in a few years time.
"When the last bear turns bull" and all that.
In my humble opinion of course.. |
Azzuri, it all depends on why you buy a house in the first place.
To make a profit or to live in as a home?
I bought this house for fixed price and it is still worth far more than I paid for it 2 years ago.
My next house will be my last one hopefully. So in 20 years time when the mortgage is paid off I have something substantial and worth money to leave to my family.
It's the chance you take when you buy a house whether the rates remain the same or the house prices rise or fall. Generally speaking houses in the same area rise and fall at the same rate. But least I ain't paying rent each month for something which will never be mine and could be repossessed if the landlord doesn't pay his mortgage.
So if you are looking to trade up, the prices have come down and have started to rise again. More places are going on the market and more mortgages are becoming available.
Houses are long term investments too. So what happens in a few years doesn't really matter to rates and prices doesn't really matter unless I am looking to sell.
Things like negative equity only becomes an issue when you are looking to sell. Just because your house price has fallen doesn't mean you will be paying more each month to your mortgage. |
With all due respect, this is nonsense. Of course, if you buy a house and want to stay in it forever then the price is irrelevant. But that's not true for the economy as a whole.
If you do not own a home; you obviously would like home prices to be low, just as you want iPOD prices to be low, petrol prices to be low, milk, cheese and egg prices to be low and flight prices to be low.
Buyers never want prices high for obvious reasons, yet everything the government has done is intended to do one and only one thing: attempt to prop up a popped asset bubble that their policies created in the first place.
Economics; however, cannot be fooled, and the bubble will burst, one way or another. The whole UK banking system is currently insolvent, as we've seen with yet another £31billion handout, whilst the banks are still promising bonuses. The next boom in the banking system will happen most probably next year, forcing the government to lend more to the banks, with foreign investors losing faith in UK gilts thus pushing bond prices higher, and REAL interest rates higher too. Despite the base rate being only 0.5%, I can get a fixed 5 year bond @ 4.95%, a 4.45% spread. This shows that interest rates are now being set by banks individually and the BOE may as well be pissing into the wind when they try and manipulate rates.
Lets take a look at the history to see what is going to happen, shall we?!;
http://financialgetaway.com/interest_only_in_your_best_interest.htm
Sound familiar to anyone?! Watch US Citibank and RBS next year, I expect them to detonate at some point in 2010.
One of the main reasons this whole crisis has occurred and has still largely to unfold is due to the lack of prudent lending. One of the definitions of "prudent lending" is not to lend beyond the current value of a given asset, with any such "excess amount" requiring a pound-for-pound reserve of the bank's own capital. Whether the loan/mortgage is being paid or not is completely irrelevant, it still has a huge effect on the economy and asset prices; here's why:
With residential and commercial property, if the lender has loaned beyond the asset value you're doomed, because it is not possible to have a reasonable expectation that the borrower will continue to perform, even if they are currently doing so!
Why?
Primarily because demanded rents cannot be maintained.
Take two pieces of commercial property across the street from one another. Both started with a "value" of £1 million. Both now have a "present value" of £500,000. Both are identical - in the same location, on opposite sides of the same road, both have the same square footage and amenities.
One of the owners is bankrupted, and the property sold - for £500,000. That buyer personally finances the £500,000 purchase.
The second is "worked out" instead of demanding that the borrower either be bankrupted or make up the other £500,000 (which he doesn't have), and the bank rolls the loan at a negative equity position of £500,000.
What happens?
Tenants start to go out of business. As space opens in the £500,000 property, those in the £1m property see the open space. So do potential new tenants.
Is the rent in the £500,000 property going to be higher or lower than the rent in the £1m property?
How many of the £1m property spaces will be rented one, two, three or five years from now, compared to the £500,000 property?
What is going to happen to that £1m loan? Well, the bank themselves need to swallow the loss and keep the spare capital on reserve in case said property goes under, which means they can't lend it out and release the money into the economy!
We're only at the start of the largest unwinding of a property asset bubble in the UK's history. Don't; for god's sake, buy a house and expect it to be worth the same or more in 5 years time! Unless of course you expect hyperinflation, in which case we're all screwed anyway, last one out please turn off the lights. |
Buyers may not want high prices. But buyers have to pay what the going rate is for a property set by market forces. Simple economics which cannot be described as nonsense as you claim.
Just because you do not like paying the going rate for a property does not mean someone else won't be willing to pay the going rate for a property.
There is a restricted supply for decent housing and not alot being built at the moment.
I see today prices rises for property in Scotland of between 6% and 15%.
No idea why you have brought up renting commercial property as we are talking about home ownership and the various schemes available on how to get on the property ladder.
So what you have put up about the whole economy and commercial property is just another smoke screen to deflect attention away from what is being discussed and an attempt to pour scorn on comments you can't dispute. |
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Stevie
Independentist
Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 1179
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| Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 6:55 pm Post subject: |
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All this is quite irrelevant to the construction of good quality social housing.
_________________
Every man dies, not every man really lives.
Alba gu brąth! |
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landg
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 617
Location: awaiting approval by a mod/admin
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| Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 11:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Stevie wrote: | | All this is quite irrelevant to the construction of good quality social housing. |
you mean like when (off the top of my head) people move up the property ladder, buy a more expensive home and pay.......................................................... stamp duty which raises millions in tax every year and goes toward....................................................
social housing.
how long have you been out of the country?
or is it because your just a big uncharismatic zimmer? |
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Stevie
Independentist
Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 1179
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| Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:13 pm Post subject: |
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So, let's cut to the chase : you're against social housing.
_________________
Every man dies, not every man really lives.
Alba gu brąth! |
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landg
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 05 Aug 2009
Posts: 617
Location: awaiting approval by a mod/admin
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| Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Stevie wrote: | | So, let's cut to the chase : you're against social housing. |
nope.
i'm against the stupid idea at the start of the thread. |
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Stevie
Independentist
Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 1179
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| Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:42 pm Post subject: |
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So, you have a better idea.
_________________
Every man dies, not every man really lives.
Alba gu brąth! |
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Ultra
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 29 Sep 2009
Posts: 652
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| Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Stevie wrote: | | So, you have a better idea. |
Stevie, why don't you ask the French instead of posting up topics on Scottish Mortgages and Scottish Education when you don't have much of a clue about either.
You still haven't answered the questions on how capital would be generated to pay for land and building no social housing.
Also, how you would pay to build more social housing when you are selling off your existing housing stock at cost price.
I await your response. Start with those 2 questions first. |
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Stevie
Independentist
Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 1179
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| Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Ultra wrote: | | Stevie wrote: | | So, you have a better idea. |
Stevie, why don't you ask the French instead of posting up topics on Scottish Mortgages and Scottish Education when you don't have much of a clue about either.
You still haven't answered the questions on how capital would be generated to pay for land and building no social housing.
Also, how you would pay to build more social housing when you are selling off your existing housing stock at cost price.
I await your response. Start with those 2 questions first. |
Read the initial posts thread for the answers. You are here as in other threads just saying the first thing that occurs to you for effect.
_________________
Every man dies, not every man really lives.
Alba gu brąth! |
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Ultra
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 29 Sep 2009
Posts: 652
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| Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Stevie wrote: | | Ultra wrote: | | Stevie wrote: | | So, you have a better idea. |
Stevie, why don't you ask the French instead of posting up topics on Scottish Mortgages and Scottish Education when you don't have much of a clue about either.
You still haven't answered the questions on how capital would be generated to pay for land and building no social housing.
Also, how you would pay to build more social housing when you are selling off your existing housing stock at cost price.
I await your response. Start with those 2 questions first. |
Read the initial posts thread for the answers. You are here as in other threads just saying the first thing that occurs to you for effect. |
No Stevie. You haven't answered the majority of question put to you as you have no idea about the provision of social housing in Scotland, what provisions are in place with regards to shared ownership schemes, and what mortgages were available from local authorities.
Again, you haven't even attempted to answer the 2 questions I have just put to you.
The reason you post up topic after topic is for effect. Even though you are a Scottish nationalist who doesn't live here and it's highly unlikely you would ever return from France. Scotland isn't good enough for you to settle here so why bother commenting on things you know nothing about? |
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Stevie
Independentist
Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 1179
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| Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:04 pm Post subject: |
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| Ultra wrote: | | The reason you post up topic after topic is for effect. Even though you are a Scottish nationalist who doesn't live here and it's highly unlikely you would ever return from France. Scotland isn't good enough for you to settle here so why bother commenting on things you know nothing about? |
Bollocks.
Of course, this is what your beedy little Brit Nat fingers have been dying to type for days now.
_________________
Every man dies, not every man really lives.
Alba gu brąth! |
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Ultra
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 29 Sep 2009
Posts: 652
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| Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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| Stevie wrote: | | Ultra wrote: | | The reason you post up topic after topic is for effect. Even though you are a Scottish nationalist who doesn't live here and it's highly unlikely you would ever return from France. Scotland isn't good enough for you to settle here so why bother commenting on things you know nothing about? |
Bollocks.
Of course, this is what your beedy little Brit Nat fingers have been dying to type for days now. |
Why don't you just answer the questions instead of using offensive terms like Brits and Brit Nats to describe people you disagree with? |
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Stevie
Independentist
Joined: 22 Nov 2008
Posts: 1179
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| Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:30 pm Post subject: |
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If you find the term Brit Nat offensive then prove you're not a Brit Nat.
Actually, I rarely use Brits (don't remember using Brits in fact).
However a Brit is an abbreviation for Briton. I take it you don't disagree.
What you don't like is that you think you're not a nationalist and you're above such things but you're a nationalist, it's just you are nationalistic about Britain and the nation you view it as being.
Brit Nat is therefore a description, nothing more, not intended to be offensive and you just don't happen to like it.
But it's time you lot woke up to you're choices as being exactly what they are; Brit Nat choices.
_________________
Every man dies, not every man really lives.
Alba gu brąth! |
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Ultra
This is Ma' Life!
Joined: 29 Sep 2009
Posts: 652
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| Posted: Fri Nov 06, 2009 7:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Stevie wrote: | If you find the term Brit Nat offensive then prove you're not a Brit Nat.
Actually, I rarely use Brits (don't remember using Brits in fact).
However a Brit is an abbreviation for Briton. I take it you don't disagree.
What you don't like is that you think you're not a nationalist and you're above such things but you're a nationalist, it's just you are nationalistic about Britain and the nation you view it as being.
Brit Nat is therefore a description, nothing more, not intended to be offensive and you just don't happen to like it.
But it's time you lot woke up to you're choices as being exactly what they are; Brit Nat choices. |
Brits was a term coined by the Catholic Irish to describe the British Army based in Northern Ireland. The only time I have heard this term being used is by Irish Republicans. I don't really have anything to prove to you.
As for the rest. More deflection to avoid answering the questions put to you.
I would rather improve things in Scotland rather than listen to parochial nationalists who dredge up the failings in Scotland or look at Scotland through highland misty eyes from abroad.
Comes back to the same thing. You talk about other people being Broit Nats but you cannot bring yourself to live in Scotland or bring up your family here. How come?
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