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macnumpty · Posted: Thu Jul 27, 2006 2:13 pm Post subject: End-of-term Report Card

Well, folks, the Summer is upon us, and politicians across the nation are, I'm sure, already swanning off to their lovely holiday destinations, many of which will no doubt be marginal constituencies! That being the case, now seems as good a time as any to assess the parties' performances over the year.

Labour

This has been a fiasco-ridden year for Labour. In terms of actual results, they started with by fending off a strong SNP challenge in Livingston and preventing what should have been an SNP win by default in Glasgow Cathcart. But since then the wheels have come off the wagon: a rebuff which saw the Party's policy of transferring Council housing stock to Housing Associations rebuffed in Edinburgh; a By-Election humiliation in Dunfermline and West Fife; a collapse in the already small Labour vote in Moray, and clashes with Westminster over immigration (won by Westminster) and nuclear power (if Elaine Murray is to be believed then Scottish Labour will fall into line with the pro-nuclear approach taken by Blair, but the election could put paid to that). Then there are the embarrassments: Mike Watson's conviction, Gordon Jackson, and Jack McConnell trying (and failing) to out-Nationalist the SNP, and this is before we factor in the perpetual crisis now engulfing the Westminster government. On that performance, you can see why their opinion poll lead has been wiped out. Mark: 2/5

SNP

A slow start, but the SNP seem to have found their groove: promises of wins in Livingston and Cathcart failed to materialise, as did the claims that the Party was poised for victory in Dunfermline and West Fife. But they seem to have gained momentum now: the Moray By-Election showed progress, albeit in a seat they were defending, and Council By-Elections generally paint a picture of success, though it's possible that most of that is based on the fact that the SNP isn't Labour. However, they can only be buoyed by current opinion polls, which have them making plenty of gains. Even if you discount opinion polls, the papers are starting to look at the SNP as a prospective government, and are considering Alex Salmond as the potential next First Minister. And when did the papers ever do that before? 4/5

Conservatives

They weren't helped by David McLetchie's departure from the Leadership, or from Brian Monteith's expulsion from the Party, but the picture looks bleak: David Cameron seems not to have made an impact in Scotland and Annabel Goldie isn't exactly setting the heather alight either. The fact that the Party is talking about propping up Labour after the election is also an admission of defeat and shows a lack of ambition on the part of the Tories, who as recently as 2004 were talking about overtaking the SNP. 2/5

Liberal Democrats

You have to give them credit for their victory in Dunfermline and West fife, but apart from that, it hasn't ben a good year for them - if Nicol Stephen has acquired a personality, we haven't yet seen it, and the LibDems' attempt to talk themselves up in Moray were cringeworthy. What's interesting is that there's the beginnings of a backlash: Labour (rightly) see them as a threat to their own prospects in places like Edinburgh, and both Westminster and Hloyrood backbenchers are urging the senior coalition partner's leadership to turn their guns on Nicol Stephen. Meanwhile, the Party's row with the Northern Scot newspaper showed that perhaps people were starting to see LibDem tactics as underhanded, and were starting to make a noise about it. Meanwhile, Stephen has painted himself into a corner: if he wants to be in coalition with anyone, he either has to gamble on a Labour cave-in on nuclear power, or try and get the SNP to drop the commitment to a referendum on independence. As neither of these seems likely, he's going to have to make a major concession, more major than any the party ever had to make under Jim Wallace. 3/5

Greens

They've been vocal on nuclear power, and have overtaken the SSP in terms of visibility on contentious issues. Also, they've tuned into the fact that they could be in a position of strength after the Election. The Green watchword is clearly 'progress', and we'll see more of it in the next 12 months. 4/5

SSP

Do you hear that whooshing noise? That's the sound of an entire party going down the toilet. The only time the SSP appear in the Press now is in stories of infighting, precarious finances or their former Convener's alleged sexual pecadillos. Regardless of the verdict of Tommy Sheridan's proceedings against the News of the World, this whole trial has crippled the SSP and I don't see any way forward for a Party that has been exposed as a ragtag bunch of factions at each other's throats. The only ray of light for them is that their names are at least in the papers, in stark contrast to the insignificance and anonymity that they were almost drowning in a year ago. 1/5

SLG · Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: End-of-term Report Card

macnumpty · Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 2:50 pm Post subject:

That's much my assessment: certainly the Ipsos-MORI poll which put them ahead would still see Labour as the largest party by 3 seats, more-or-less, and most of the SNP's gains are connected with Labour's doldrums and/or the SSP implosion. However, the By-Election win in Moray, coupled with that poll have created a momentum for the SNP, and their policies do seem to be getting more attention (and scrutiny).

Also, the interesting thing is that the UK press are now picking up on (particularly) Angus MacNeill's performance in the loans-for-peerages scandal. While it doesn't really matter that the party is well-known in England or Wales, the extra publicity on TV and the London-based papers will reach more of the Scottish audience.

When you put all these factors together, you get a sound performance from the SNP. But you're right, they need to step up another gear if they want to be the largest party next year.
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SLG · Posted: Fri Jul 28, 2006 3:29 pm Post subject:

Well momentum is a very important factor. Talking themselves up as potential leaders of an alternative coalition government is a good move. I think so far they have been a wee bit scared to step it up, preferring to let Labour have the focus, and highlight their slip ups. I think that will continue, with the SNP trying to incite disagreements between Labour and the Lib Dems and Labour and UK Labour.

You mention above, the Lib Dems digging themselves into a bit of a hole re coalition partners with their stringent opposition to both nuclear and an Independence referendum. The best hope for the SNP might be to help make another Labour/Lib Dem coalition impossible.