Our Scotland - www.our-scotland.org

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3777

see - http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/gl.../20060802/cleisure/cleisure1.html

Cuba after Castro

published: Wednesday | August 2, 2006

Yesterday's announcement that President Fidel Castro has had intestinal surgery and has temporarily ceded power to his brother Raul is another signal of the imminence of transition in Cuba.

For Mr. Castro, who has ruled communist Cuba for 46 years, since his guerrilla army overthrew the Batista dictatorship in 1959, turns 80 on August 13. He has recently displayed many of the physical symptoms of old age, drawing focus to his mortality, and, inevitably, discussion of the post-Castro power relations in Cuba.

Jamaica, which is Cuba's closest neighbour in the Caribbean region, has an interest in how the political situation evolves in that nation. For volcanic upheaval in Cuba in the aftermath of President Castro is unlikely to be contained in that country and will have severe implications for the security of its neighbours, not least Jamaica.

It is imperative, therefore, that Caricom, if it has not yet done so, start developing its own post-Castro strategy and, critically, to engage the United States about a response to the Cuban transition that ensures orderliness and stability and prevents the outbreak of a civil war.

The fact is that Fidel Castro and Cuba, with their communist government are America's last Cold War nemesis, and Castro, in particular, has been a particularly painful thorn in the side of successive U.S. presidents and their administrations. Castro has survived not only everything they have thrown at him, including the agitation of the Miami-based exiles, but the collapse of the Soviet Union and world communism, the West's ultimate victory of the Cold War and the emergence of the United States as the world's sole superpower.

Ramparts of communism

In the absence of the charismatic Fidel Castro it will be tempting, we suspect, to try to quickly pull down the ramparts of communism in Cuba to be replaced by a pluralist political society and to open the economy to the forces of the free market. Much of this is inevitable; but sequencing and timing, we believe, are important.

There is much anger and bitterness between many exiled Cubans and those who remained at home and in the administration. A social and political collapse in the post-Castro period could ignite efforts to settle old scores, pitting pro-Castro Cubans against returnees and internal dissidents.

In other words, a nasty civil war is a distinct possibility in the absence of a managed transition. The Bush administration has evidence of this scenario in Iraq and, hopefully, won't be tempted to try strategies similar to those applied with the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Importantly, though, Raul Castro, Fidel's younger brother and designated heir, commands Cuba's 50,000-member armed forces as well as the police, which may be crucial to the emergence of events in Cuba.

But Raul Castro, at 75, will, at best be a temporary leader. He has, in recent years, emerged as a pragmatic politician, in the context of Cuba's narrow political system. We could, therefore, see Raul Castro leading a China-type reform of the Cuban economy, where economic advance, in a largely capitalist environment, is given precedence over political freedoms. In the longer run, political change is inevitable in Cuba. The trick is to manage the change without a conflagration.

Keep goin' you old bugger! I'm supposed to be in Cuba next summer and want to see it before Castro dies!

_________________
"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

Possibly the funniest site in the world, 'The Daily Mash' - http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/

SLG · Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 10:28 am Post subject:

Apparently he's alright...

Reluctant Hero · Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 8:09 pm Post subject:

Those Americans never miss a trick. Do they want another World War or something? First they cause a war in Iraq, then they fuel a war in Lebanon, now they are encouraging Cuba.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/5247776.stm

SLG · Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 10:25 pm Post subject:

They just can't help themselves.

Babygael · Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2006 7:23 am Post subject:

Cuba needed a change for at the time it was just another American puppet goverment.It is unfortunate that he Castro became so dictioral when he came to power.He literately took over the running of every aspect of life in Cuba and any one questioning him was removed one way or another.For example, if you are in agriculture, you would expect what you say to be headed to but he thought he knew better and as a result his lack of expertise and the fact that no one would dare say otherwise, resulted in his enterprises falling through!

His own sister was sent into exile because she questioned him she resides in the Usa and does not dare to return to Cuba as long as Castro s alive!

He's changed a lot lately and has become acceptable to Caribbean Goverments. I personaly know the late Cuban Ambassador to Barbados and they are very nice folk. Fidel castro was here recently to commerate the cuban airline that crashed off of Barbados where there is a monument errected in memory to those who died in the diaster.

Personally,I admire him for his initial fight and his incredible stamania !!
But i am not impressed with his "Human rights" record nor his ego!
_________________
Ath-bheothachad

Here is where I come to water my roots.

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3777

....seems Fidels' rule is over - http://news.scotsman.com/politics.cfm?id=1148032006
_________________
"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

Possibly the funniest site in the world, 'The Daily Mash' - http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/

Blackadder · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 28 Jul 2006 Posts: 4244

Does this mean I can get my huge stock of cheap cigars out of the country at last???

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3777

....as long as you don't transport them via the USA!
_________________
"Every single person on this planet is unique. Just like everyone else..." - Random Guy in Edinburgh Pub

Possibly the funniest site in the world, 'The Daily Mash' - http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/

Blackadder · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 28 Jul 2006 Posts: 4244