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Nithsdale Nat · Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2005 8:48 pm Post subject: Elections - 2007

Alex Salmond has talked about gaining 20 seats for the SNP - what do other people think a good result for the independence movement would be? I fear from the feedback in my own constituency he may be too ambitious but we will have to wait and see.

Abieuan · Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:23 pm Post subject:

Yes, it sounds hopefull in the present climate, but we are a team and he is the manager and must instill confidence if we are to reach our present potential.
If the Torries win the next Westminster elections, things will change and we will win.
Your constituency is one to watch, NN, keep us informed. Smile

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3776

so is East Ayrshire, or Kilmarnock and Loudon, or whatever it is in the Scottish Parliament Elections - extremely slim Lab majority - think they won by about 80 votes in the last election - we need to pull these off if we are to stand a chance.

As for an overall result - it's extremely difficult to tell considering it's 18 months away. All I can say is that if the elections were held tomorrow - I think there would be about 5-10 seats gained, but not 20.

There's still a lot of work to be done.
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khraeigh · No Longer a Wean Joined: 12 Oct 2005 Posts: 69

It will be interesting to see the Lib Dems strategy.

They cannot portray themselves as the protest party in scotland due to their "marriage" to Labour.

That was the reason for their gains at Westminster.

I ecpect both Labour and Lib Dems to Lose seats.

I expect the SNP, Tories and Greens to gain seats.

I also expect the SSP to lose ALL their seats.
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SLG · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 12:18 am Post subject:

I agree with that Khraeigh. The SNP have been performing well in local by-elections. And I do detect a rise in interest in independence. But the SNP seem to be a bit stagnant in Holyrood. So I think gains, but I wouldn't like to guess how many. I don't think it's a problem to be too optimistic. As long as there are gains, it will be a successful election.

The Tories should get a wee bounce on the back of Cameron, but I wouldn't expect anything significant.

I think small gains also for the Greens.

While I can see why a lot of folk think the SSP are going to be wiped out, I think they might surprise everyone. They still have a very strong activist base, and they are still holding a united front for the (far) left.

The real concern I have is that the executive are being punished heavily enough by the opposition parties. So at the moment I expect the Labour and LibDem votes to hold up fairly well.

Rinty · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 8:40 am Post subject: e

In KIlmarnock and Loudoun azzurri, Labour beat the SNP by 1200 votes at the same time as destroying the SNP in council seats with the SNP losing 6 of their 14 wards in one day.

The SNP across East Ayrshire have not been active since 2003 elections and the only sign of them is press for Adam Imgram and Danny Coffey.

If the SNP are basing any challenge on winning seats like KIlmarnock then they should get their activists out all year and not just at elections.

Given that the SNP vote has gone down at every election in recent years I do not see that changing.

I suspect that there will be very little difference after 2007 when it comes to seats in the house.

I would hope that there will be a majority of parties who support independence but I doubt it.

As for the SSP I cannot belive anyone would think that they will be wiped out in 2007. As their seats come from the lists, it is impossible to equate byelections for FPTP seats with any prediction for 2007. The way I look at it is that these regional MSPs the SSP have now have a much higher profile than they did before they were elected (Tommy sheridan excepted) and having worked in their regions for 4 years by then they will have a stronger chance of being re-elceted than they did before 2003. The SSP have a larger membership than 2003 and now have the backing of Trades Unions affiliations.

Prediction?
Labour - the same or slightly less
SNP - the same or slightly more
Lib Dems - the same or slightly less
Tories - the same or slightly more
Greens - slightly less
SSP - the same
Independents - slightly less

Rinty · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 9:12 am Post subject: factor

One factor that may make a difference is that the SSP might decide to stand only on the list. In my opinion this would mean more votes for the SSP, less for the Greens and more for the SNP in FPTP seats, which are the votes they MUST win to seriuosly challenge Labour.

It is clear from analysis of the last election that the SSP standing in all FPTP seats actually cost them list votes. A lot of people on the left decided to vote SSP for their FPTP vote and Greens on the list. This would suggest that SSP were their first choice and that if the choice was between SSP and Greens on the list only, they would vote SSP.

I have anecdotal evidence of people in my constituency who did this and thought they were doing the SSP a favour by giving them their "first" vote. The Greens have done very little work outside of the press and parliament and it is that sort of work that gets you votes. Its all very well getting good coverage in the Herald but it doesn't amount to much really. The Greens also have very little in the way of membership and I suspect that if they are faced with a straight battle with the SSP for list seats their low activist base and lack of local organisation will see them fall. Their vote in 2003 was mainly a version of the anti-war vote helped by the fact the SSP stood in every seat.

The recent by elections saw the SSP beat the Greens in Cathcart, in Livingstone the SSP vote is not a good representation as they suspended campaigning early when the election agent died suddenly while out canvassing.

The SSP might still decide to stand in FPTP seats but if they dont I would expect them to at least retain their list seats and that the greens and independents might be the ones who lose out and the SNP should gain in FPTP seats.

In the example Azzurri gave, Kilmarnock and Loudon, the SNP lost by 1200 votes and the SSP polled 1400. If those SSP voters voted for the SNP things could be very different across the country.

Other seats where a combined SNP/SSP vote would beat Labour based on the last election are: Govan, Pollock, Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, Glasgow Kelvin, Cumbernauld, Dundee West,

this combined vote would beat the Lib Dems in Tweeddale and of course lead to the SNP also getting more lists seats in the FPTP areas they dont win as the FPTP count influences how many list seats you can win if a party does not reflect their percentage vote in FPTP seats.

Of course any fall in FPTP seats for Labour might result in them getting more lists seats as they have by far the biggest vote on the lists (cuurently their list votes are largely worthless as they have already received their % allocation in FPTP seats). This could mean that the SNP taking FPTP seats from Labour could result in Labour having the same amount of seats and the SSP missing out on the list seats.

azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3776

was it the previous election that they lost my 80 votes? or am I just pulling this from nowhere?
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Rinty · Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 9:40 am Post subject: e

The previous election the majority for Labour was 2,700.

The SNP did come very close to breaking the council starnglehold by Labour in 1999 winning 15 council seats out of 32. The lack of any activism outsode of election time cost them dear though and the local SNP went into the 2003 council elections assuming that their vote would hold up or improve. The fact they were humped by Labour when the council were closing schools, cutting services and we had the anti-war vote should have shown the East Ayrshire SNP that it takes more than electioneering to win elections. From the evidence I have seen they have not learned that lesson. There were NO SNP members from East Ayrshire at Prestwick Airport on Sunday, NO SNP members at a recent public meeting on sewage dumping, NO SNP members took part in the protests against the closure of a secondary school in Cumnock. No doubt we will see them emerge in the months before the next election but I suspect that will not be enough.