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Will Scotland do a Belgium?
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 10:52 pm    Post subject: Will Scotland do a Belgium? Reply with quote

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/...ists/tim_hames/article2419330.ece

Quote:
Our correspondent finds a worrying parallel between two small and divided nations
Tim Hames

It is not hard to be pretty dismissive of Belgium. As a country it has offered little to the wider world beyond its sickly beer and sicklier chocolate (plus Tintin, to be charitable). Now it appears to be engaged in one of its regular bouts of fratricidal introspection. Never mind “name five famous Belgians”, discovering five of them who like each other seems to be a challenge. As The Times reported on Saturday, there has been no proper national government there for three months and it is being seriously asked whether the place should be split between Flanders and Wallonia, with Brussels becoming a kind of Washington DC for the EU. So it could be Belgium RIP. Will anybody notice?

Before we scoff, it is worth wondering whether the United Kingdom is destined to share the fate of Belgium, though at the same time barely recognising its own misfortune.

Within the space of a few weeks this year an administration was formed in Northern Ireland that contains Sinn Fein, a party committed to removing Ulster from the UK and merging it with the Republic of Ireland. Soon afterwards the SNP, a party whose purpose is to release Scotland from the UK, was sworn in to head the executive in Edinburgh. Not long after that Labour was compelled to accept a coalition arrangement in Wales with Plaid Cymru, a party with independence as its ultimate objective. If this were a foreign land, these developments would be reported as the death rattle of a nation.

Of the three events, the rise of the SNP is unquestionably the most significant. It is in charge of an administration (albeit a minority one) rather than being a mere junior partner, as are Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru. Polls in Scotland, furthermore, indicate that – while there is not, at present, a majority for an outright divorce from the UK – there is strong support for a much more open marriage. Alex Salmond, the able, astute and populist First Minister (a sort of Ken McLivingstone but with talent) will not secure a referendum on independence by 2010 as he wants, but if his party is reelected a year after that his mandate for a ballot on Scotland’s future will become undeniable. At the least, his country is likely to emerge as the British equivalent of Quebec; nor is the complete division of Scotland from England – akin to the secession of Slovakia from Czechoslovakia in 1993 – unthinkable. These scenarios can be prevented only if Labour retains office in Britain as a whole – a Tory victory would trigger a stampede for Scottish separation – and regains it once again north of the Border by 2011.

All of which means that the unopposed nomination of Wendy Alexander to lead the Scottish Labour Party on Friday is a moment of underestimated but enormous importance. Ms Alexander is virtually unknown in England yet she is a key player in a party that is less Yes, Minister than Ask the Family. She is the sister of Douglas Alexander, the International Development Secretary, who is chums with Ed Balls, the Children, Schools and Families Secretary, who attends Cabinet with his wife Yvette Cooper, the Housing Minister, both of whom are mates with Ed Miliband, Minister for the Cabinet Office, whose brother is David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary. Looking at all this it is tough to avoid the conclusion that if Labour is defeated at the polls it will be as much because of excessive inbreeding as incompetence.

Yet Wendy, despite being a humble opposition leader in a devolved legislature of limited powers, is about to become more pivotal than Douglas, Ed, Yvette, Ed II or David. It is scarcely an exaggeration to claim that she will be the second-most-important member of the Labour Party for its medium-term future. If she cannot stop Mr Salmond in his tracks, then the impact for Labour will be seismic.

Were Scotland to emulate Quebec, then the English might finally become aware of it and be profoundly resentful of its special status. The demand that Scottish representation be cut in the House of Commons, or that there be “English votes for English laws”, will become louder. That it is an irrational idea (everything that the English-dominated British Parliament does has an effect on Scotland, even in areas such as education and health that are supposedly fully devolved, whereas almost nothing enacted at Holyrood disturbs England) will be irrelevant. The process by which the Conservatives mutate from being “the party of the union” to the “English National Party” would be completed.

If Scotland was to bolt through the exit door as Slovakia did then the consequences would be more explosive. It is possible for Labour to triumph in an election for Westminster without Scottish votes but the task becomes notably harder. It would be like the Democrats attempting to carry a presidential contest without California or the Republicans having to make do without Texas and Florida. And the time at which either the “Quebec” or the “Slovakia” constitutional crisis would loom into sight (2012-2015) would be the point when either Douglas or Ed or Yvette or Ed II or David might be fancying their chances of succeeding Gordon Brown in Downing Street.

But if Ms Alexander fails, then whichever one of them it is may find him or herself having a sudden change of heart about the Westminster electoral system. For if Scottish separation becomes a realistic and imminent prospect, Labour may well adopt proportional representation as its insurance policy. It would be the most plausible device for keeping the party in charge in London while convincing Scotland that it should not impersonate Slovakia. Which variation of PR would be chosen is a matter of conjecture; Labour might go for the d’Hondt method. Its originator, Victor d’Hondt, was appropriately enough a 19th-century lawyer from Belgium.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Appart from the childish first paragraph about Tintin etc thats not actually that bad an article. Certainly raises some key points on the desperation of Labour to keep Scotland purely for it's own agenda.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Today's Herald also has an article drawing parallels between Scotland and Belgium. I wrote a comment on the Herald website which I reproduce here: Although this article draws comparisons with Scotland, the two are extremely different. The reason the Dutch speaking north eastern parts of Belgium are not part of the Netherlands is religion - protestantism, under the House of Orange, triumphed in the Netherlands, while Flanders stayed very Catholic. Notice that the Flemish Nationalists are NOT demanding union with their fellow Dutch speakers in the Netherlands. That is because there is a very strong element of Catholic sectarianism amongst Flemish Nationalists. In the early 19th Century, a decision was taken, with the backing of that great European power, Great Britain, the victors of the Napoleonic Wars, to lump Flanders together with Wallonia and call it "Belgium". But there is really no such thing as "Belgian History" before that, just a confused mixture of histories for the low countries to the north of France. In contrast, Scotland certainly DOES have such a thing as "Scottish History", the history of an independent kingdom which lasted a thousand years. Another obvious difference with Scotland is that in the Scottish case, we have a very clear Border with England. In the case of Flanders, it would be down to arguing about which side of which street in Brussels should be the border. "Developments across the North Sea carry significance for Scotland"? No, not much significance. Scotland will be independent before Flanders.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okay, what I sent first was my response to the Herald article about Belchum, this is a comment on Tim Hames's article in the Times.

"it is worth wondering whether the United Kingdom is destined to share the fate of Belgium" - the United Kingdom was formed by the Union of two long-established kingdoms, Scotland and England. In the negotiations which led to the formation of the UK, the Scottish representatives, despite being unionists, did secure some very important concessions for the continuing identity of Scotland, such as a seperate Church of Scotland, a separate Scottish legal system, and a separate Scottish education system. The Border between Scotland and England continued to exist as a genuine legal border. The differences in laws between the two sides of that border led to things like young English couples running away to get married in Scotland, for instance. Nothing remotely like that applies in the case of Belgium, an artificial country which was invented by British politicians in the early 19th Century. There is no such thing as "Belgian History" before that, just the histories of the confused jumble of territories in the low countries to the north of France. But there was and is such a thing as "Scottish History". Given that Scotland already exists legally speaking, and has a legal border, dissolving the United Kingdom is a relatively straightforward matter, whereas dissolving Belgium would involve arguments about which side of a street in Brussels the border should be on. Precisely BECAUSE Belgium is so artificial, dissolving it is likely to be a lot messier than dissolving the UK.

"Alex Salmond, the able, astute and populist First Minister (a sort of Ken McLivingstone but with talent) will not secure a referendum on independence by 2010 as he wants" - this makes the usual mistake of assuming that the campaign for a referendum on independence is something under the control of Alex Salmond and the SNP. Quite simply, it isn't, and all predictions based on the assumption that it is are automatically invalid.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 5:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There already is an English National Party (so called)

Quote:
Never mind “name five famous Belgians”


Pardon my spelling

Tintin/Herge, Georges Simenon, Magritte, Poirot, Father Damien (of the lepers), King Leopold, Sax(-ophone), Django Rheinhardt (guitarist), Brueghel, Heironymous Bosch, Rubens, Van Dyck, Mercator (maps), and of course... Jean-Claude Van Damme (who manages to have a French first name and Flemish surname)

Then there's Audrey Hepburn - kind of.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The most important issue with respect to Scotland arising from the current Belgian political stalemate is that the question over continuing EU membership of both resultant states will be resolved - and it will be most definitely be resolved in favour of continued membership for both.

The formal precedent will then be set - and another unionist myth will bite the dust.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Lithgae Jambo wrote:
The most important issue with respect to Scotland arising from the current Belgian political stalemate is that the question over continuing EU membership of both resultant states will be resolved - and it will be most definitely be resolved in favour of continued membership for both.

The formal precedent will then be set - and another unionist myth will bite the dust.


Um, it's already well established in international law that membership of international organisations cannot be enforced for emerging states.
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2007 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aventinian wrote:


Um, it's already well established in international law that membership of international organisations cannot be enforced for emerging states.


Um, it's not.

You will find that experts have got quite different opinions on membership of the EU post-independence. Even Commission officials have come out with contradictory views on the matter.

As I said, if Belgium does split, the subsequent status of the new countries within the EU will form the precedent for the position of Scotland (and the rump of the UK) post its independence.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 4:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Lithgae Jambo wrote:
Aventinian wrote:


Um, it's already well established in international law that membership of international organisations cannot be enforced for emerging states.


Um, it's not.

You will find that experts have got quite different opinions on membership of the EU post-independence. Even Commission officials have come out with contradictory views on the matter.

As I said, if Belgium does split, the subsequent status of the new countries within the EU will form the precedent for the position of Scotland (and the rump of the UK) post its independence.


There already is precedent for the admission to international organisations by emerging states: Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union, Czechoslovia... all the new states had to apply for membership of the UN.

The one basis I've heard for the view of the SNP is the 1978 Vienna Convention on the matter (and that came from Alex Neil) - the obvious point to raise here is that the United Kingdom is not party to the Vienna Convention - in fact, hardly any EU states are... in fact, hardly any states at all are: Bosnia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Dominica, Ecuador, Egypt, Estonia, Ethiopia, Iraq, Liberia, Morocco, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Serbia, Seychelles, Slovakia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Tunisia, and Ukraine. (at least according to Wikipedia).

There is no compelling case for it to be considered part of the customary rules of international law. So what is the customary position? As International Law Commission pointed out when they drafted the above Convention:

"In many [international] organisations membership, other than original membership, is subject to a formal process of admission. Where this is so, practice appearsnow to have established the principle that a new state is not entitled automaticallyto become a party to the constituent treaty and a member of the organisation asa successor state, simply by reason of the fact that at the date of the succession itsterritory was subject to the treaty and within the ambit of the organisation."

There are plenty more arguments against this position, but I suppose in this case I am debating against Alex Neil, who is not present, rather than yourself. So I'll open the floor to you again at this point...

I will just point out two more points: this matter was conceded in the favour of the position I am taking in a previous thread and, moreover, EU Commissioners are not lawyers nor do they have any say in the matter of whether admission is automatic.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 6:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aventinian wrote:
There already is precedent for the admission to international organisations by emerging states: Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union, Czechoslovia... all the new states had to apply for membership of the UN.


Does this membership situation apply just to Scotland or will the 'United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland' have to reapply (or not) as well?
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Regardless of existing precedent (if there is any) I took TLJ's point to be that the treatment of Belgium will become an EU precedent. If the successor states of a Belgian split retain membership of the EU the same rules should apply in the case of any other member state which fragments. Can anyone imagine Brussels not being in the EU, or being required to even make a token application for membership?
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The comparison with Belgium is kind of lazy. There are almost no similarities. Belgium is overcrowded and has no energy resources. Scotland is vast, under-populated with among the largest untapped renewable energy resources in Europe. There are no historical similarities, and the internal tensions in Belgium are in no way similar to the tensions between England and Scotland. So, sorry, this is a rubbish comparison as well as being unnecessarily insulting to Belgium.

On EU accession, this is primarily a political not a legal issue. I was involved in the Slovenian accession to the EU. I can assure you that the lawyers were redrafting the legal frameworks to accord with the political decisions. There is no doubt whatsoever that Scotland would accede; in fact it could already have regional representation in the EU as the Spanish regions have. I think Alex was investigating that during his recent trip to the EU where he was a great hit. There will be no problems for Scotland taking up its EU membership. There is a vacant chair there right now with Scotland's name on it.
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Holebender wrote:
Regardless of existing precedent (if there is any) I took TLJ's point to be that the treatment of Belgium will become an EU precedent. If the successor states of a Belgian split retain membership of the EU the same rules should apply in the case of any other member state which fragments. Can anyone imagine Brussels not being in the EU, or being required to even make a token application for membership?


You took it correctly !
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 11:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Lithgae Jambo wrote "if Belgium does split, the subsequent status of the new countries within the EU will form the precedent for the position of Scotland (and the rump of the UK) post its independence" - there will be no such precedent for the simple reason that Scotland will be independent long before Belgium splits into two separate countries. We have a long established border with England which does not run through Edinburgh. They have an almost un-resolvable quarrel over which side of which street in Brussels should be the border. We will set the precedent, not Belgium.
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"We have a long established border with England which does not run through Edinburgh."

But it does run through Berwickshire. Smile
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 7:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okay it may be strange having "Berwickshire" in Scotland yet not "Berwick", but that's a small matter compared to the problems involved in any division of Belgium, particularly the problem of what you do about the two and a half million people who live in the city and the suburbs of the major European city of Brussels.

None of the political parties represented in the Scottish Parliament, or who have ever been represented in the Scottish Parliament, make any claim on Berwick. It is possible that, at some time in the future, the citizens of Berwick-On-Tweed might want a referendum on whether or not they should join in with Scotland; but that will be a matter for THEM to take up with the English government. It is not something which needs to delay independence for Scotland. The territory for which the Scottish claim of independence is made is the territory which at present comes under Scottish law. That is FAR more straightforward than the incredibly complicated arguments in and around Brussels. The Belgian federation may become so loose it is nearer and nearer to separation, but the problem of Brussels will delay that final step for a long time, if not indefinitely. We can safely say that there will be no "Belgian precedent" to follow because Scotland will be independent long before Belgium ceases to exist. WE will set the precedent.
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Holebender wrote:
Regardless of existing precedent (if there is any) I took TLJ's point to be that the treatment of Belgium will become an EU precedent. If the successor states of a Belgian split retain membership of the EU the same rules should apply in the case of any other member state which fragments. Can anyone imagine Brussels not being in the EU, or being required to even make a token application for membership?


Clear and waffle free, the way arguments should be. Is there anyone who would argue with the above?
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 4:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"that will be a matter for THEM to take up with the English government."

Is this statement "ex cathedra"?
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Ex cathedra" is a Roman Catholic term. If there is one thing I am certainly NOT, it is Roman Catholic. The term refers to the blasphemous claims of the papacy that a mere human being can sometimes be "infallible". I was brought up to reject the idea that any human being can ever be infallible. What's more, the outrageous claims of the papacy are intended to be a way of AVOIDING having to prove anything. "It is so because the Pope says it is so". Of course I reject that approach. I try to give reasoned arguments, at considerable length when necessary, for the views which I hold. Radge Jougal hates that because he is himself pretty useless at reasoned argument. Unable to discuss things on the level of principles, in order to try to boost his own fragile ego he regularly resorts to personal put-downs.

Let's look at the statement of mine which Radge Jougal is bitching about this time.

I said "Okay it may be strange having 'Berwickshire' in Scotland yet not 'Berwick', but that's a small matter compared to the problems involved in any division of Belgium, particularly the problem of what you do about the two and a half million people who live in the city and the suburbs of the major European city of Brussels."

Got that bit? Yes, what happens to Berwick may be of great importance to the folk of Berwick, but, as "border problems" go, it is a small one compared to the problem of the greater Brussels area. In purely mathematical terms, the Belgians have a problem which is about a hundred times bigger. Anybody disagree? What are your reasons, your arguments, for disagreeing? How big would YOU estimate their problem to be, in mathematical terms?

I said "None of the political parties represented in the Scottish Parliament, or who have ever been represented in the Scottish Parliament, make any claim on Berwick".

That's a simple statement of fact. Neither the SNP nor the Greens nor the Labour Party nor the Tories nor the Liberal Democrats (parties at present represented at Holyrood) make any claim on Berwick, and neither the Scottish Socialist Party nor Solidarity (parties which have been represented at Holyrood in the past) make any claim on Berwick. Anybody disagree? If so, where is your "proof"?

I said that "It is possible that, at some time in the future, the citizens of Berwick-On-Tweed might want a referendum on whether or not they should join in with Scotland; but that will be a matter for THEM to take up with the English government".

Given that nobody in government in Scotland, or who is ever likely to be in government in Scotland, makes any claim on Berwick, again, it seems to me to be a simple statement of the obvious, to say that, IF anybody in Berwick wants the town to become part of Scotland, then it is going to be up to THEM to take the initiative in doing something about this. Anybody disagree? What reasons can you give for disagreeing?

I said "It is not something which needs to delay independence for Scotland. The territory for which the Scottish claim of independence is made is the territory which at present comes under Scottish law." - again, that is a simple statement of fact. The SNP and ALL other parties or organisations of any significance which favour independence for Scotland make that claim for the territory which at present comes under Scottish law, and that does not include Berwick. And like I said, SINCE the claim does not include Berwick, it follows "That is FAR more straightforward than the incredibly complicated arguments in and around Brussels. The Belgian federation may become so loose it is nearer and nearer to separation, but the problem of Brussels will delay that final step for a long time, if not indefinitely. We can safely say that there will be no 'Belgian precedent' to follow because Scotland will be independent long before Belgium ceases to exist. WE will set the precedent."

Anybody disagree with that? If so, what are the reasoned arguments for disagreeing with it?

One of the biggest assets of the movement for Scottish independence, the thing that puts it so far ahead of Flanders, Quebec, Catalonia, Quebec, etc etc etc, is that there are no border disputes to delay the achievement of independence. Anybody who claims to be in favour of independence for Scotland, and yet seeks to complicate that simple, straightforward claim by introducing un-necessary border disputes, is either (1) a fool, or (2) a British agent.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2007 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Intresting article, I agree with Dave Coull both contries are completly different and Belgium has a more complicated political system than Scotland or Britain.
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