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Reluctant Hero · Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 9:56 pm Post subject: Salmond Targets 20 MPs

It would probably be just a big an achievement as it was last May if he managed to pull this one off.

http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/n...ons_can_dance_to_Scottish_jig.php

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Shagpile · No Longer a Wean Joined: 03 Jan 2006 Posts: 89

Holebender · Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject:

The real target has to be 30 MPs. 30 out of 59 is a majority of Scottish constituencies and, by Unionist standards, counts as a mandate for independence.
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azzuri · 'Our Scotland' Fossil Joined: 12 Sep 2005 Posts: 3792

Holebender · Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 4:34 pm Post subject:

30 MPs makes it impossible for Westminster to refuse a referendum on independence.
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Lewis · No Longer a Wean Joined: 21 Feb 2008 Posts: 81

Cool, it's a pity I'm not one of those apparently future MPs. I can't be as I'm still 16.

But it's a good plan, it might be phoesable, but trends do show that people will be more likely to vote labour in for Westminster and SNP in in Holyrood, read it somewhere but I can't source it.
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Mctosh45 · I Love 'Our Scotland' Joined: 15 Oct 2006 Posts: 300

I was under the impression if the S.N.P. won 30 M.P's then Scotland is effectively independent? Smile

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Aventinian · Posted: Mon Apr 21, 2008 9:07 pm Post subject:

Shagpile · No Longer a Wean Joined: 03 Jan 2006 Posts: 89

Lothian Sky · I Love 'Our Scotland' Joined: 04 Feb 2006 Posts: 350

kevin04 · I Love 'Our Scotland' Joined: 06 Mar 2007 Posts: 348

It's certainly a tough ask to win to target 20 MPs, I could see the SNP if their popularity continues to win maybe 6or7 more MPs but I just cannot see them winning that many FPTP seats in Glasgow - The Labour vote will come out like it did in May last year, hopefully not though. I still feel Glasgow has years of Labour voting ahead Sad

Rinty · Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 10:18 am Post subject:

Salmond had the same target for the 2007 scottish elections. I think it is over ambitious but it is just a rallying call really and not a prediction.

I dont think thay can make that amount of gains but they will have a breakthrough, perhaps back to their peak in 1979.

On the other issue, a majority of scots MPs being in favour of independence or being from pro-independence parties would mean talks to discuss independence at least. The unionist parties have always taken their mandate as being the largest vote and majority of elected MPs and MSPs beng for pro-union parties.

It would be ludicrous of they tried to wrangle out of the consequences of such an event and I dont believe that they would, whether it is labour or tories who are in govt.

But it probably wont happen in the next election although labour are performing so poorly and embarrassing themselves almost daily so it might not be impossible.

kevin04 · I Love 'Our Scotland' Joined: 06 Mar 2007 Posts: 348

Rinty - some great points there.

Imagine the SNP/Greens/Socialists managed to muster up a majority of Pro-Independence MPs in London, I'd love to see Brown, Alexander, Stephen's reaction. I wouldn't put it past them saying ''Scotland wants Change, Not Independence''

I think the SNP will win maybe 6-7 more seats next year and that would be a huge achievement in my opinion if they did.

Dave Coull · Independentista Joined: 07 Nov 2006 Posts: 1091

I personally have more or less decided that I have voted in my last Westminster election, and don't intend to repeat the experience, and it's quite possible there will be others who think like myself on this. Nevertheless, when "Salmond Targets 20 MPs", that sounds possible.

Holebender writes "The real target has to be 30 MPs" - not according to Alex Salmond.

"30 out of 59 is a majority of Scottish constituencies and, by Unionist standards, counts as a mandate for independence."

What would count as a mandate for independence, so far as both the people of Scotland and the international community are concerned, is winning a majority of votes for independence in a referendum.

Azzuri says "Until the goalposts are moved of course..."

Well, I personally am not moving any goalposts. I'm being totally consistent in saying, as I have said for several years, that what would count as a mandate for independence, so far as both the people of Scotland and the international community are concerned, is winning a majority of votes for independence in a referendum.

Holebender says "30 MPs makes it impossible for Westminster to refuse a referendum on independence" - it does not require 30 SNP members of the Westminster parliament to make it impossible for Westminster to refuse a referendum on independence. There are many scenarios which could make it impossible for Westminster to refuse a referendum on independence. One of the scenarios which could make it impossible for them is ZERO SNP members of the Westminster parliament (because they decided that the Scottish Parliament is the legitimate voice of the people of Scotland, therefore they are encouraging a boycott of Westminster until such time as a referendum is agreed). Now, being realistic about it, that is not going to happen, too many folk in the SNP have a vested interest in Westminster, but nevertheless such a scenario could make it impossible for Westminster to refuse a referendum on independence. But like I said, there are many scenarios which could have this result. The "30 MPs" target is not required, in fact, it could be a gift to the unionists ( who could then claim that 29 SNP members of the Westminster parliament would represent "failure" ! )

Aventinian says regarding "30" for the SNP "that would still leave 616 members to vote against you. Perhaps you'd get support from the SDLP and Plaid: there's another six... however the numbers are still not in your favour".

Lothian Sky says "See! There go the goalposts. Straight from the Robert Mugabe school of democracy."

The goal which really matters is getting a referendum, and winning a majority of votes for independence in that referendum. Regardless of the legal situation (which is always debateable, and you can always find lawyers who will debate it) that would in practice be a mandate for independence, so far as both the people of Scotland and the international community are concerned.

Alex Salmond, in his capacity as the leader of a political party, has set his party a target of getting 20 members elected at the next Westminster election. I think that could be a do-able target for his party. Some other folk are now talking about raising the target from 20 to 30. I think that is less realistic than their party leader's target, would give the unionists the chance to talk about "failure" if they "only" achieved 29, and, in any case, as Aventinian has shown, would prove nothing so far as diehard unionists are concerned. However, regardless of how folk vote in party political elections, it is clear that a majority of folk in Scotland, regardless of their political views, want a referendum on independence. The demand for a referendum, regardless of how many MPs or MSPs any particular party happens to have, remains valid and must continue to be pushed. If we remain focussed on that, and don't get distracted by unrealistic aims for Westminster representation, we can get a referendum, win a clear majority of votes for independence in that referendum, and thus, so far as both the people of Scotland and the international community are concerned, have a mandate for independence.

Holebender · Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2008 5:36 pm Post subject:

Aventinian, if, hypothetically, Scotland returned 59 pro-independence MPs to Westminster but a majority of UK MPs decided to block any move towards an independence referendum, would you find that acceptable? It would, after all, be democracy of a sort.
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Aventinian · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 12:21 am Post subject:

Holebender · Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 10:23 am Post subject:

So, in your world, Scotland is completely powerless to determine its own status. If a majority in the UK (that's a "majority" under the corrupt first-past-the-post voting system which can give one party a massive majority of Westminster seats with about a third of all votes cast) decides part of the UK is no longer worth bothering about it can be cast aside without any further ado. Similarly, that same majority can keep territory despite the wishes of the local populous to the contrary.

What would be preventing the independence of Angus, North Perthshire and Dundee East? How about this silly notion for starters; the SNP did not stand for election on that basis and has no mandate for such action.

Here's another silly notion; we all know politicians are inveterate liars and cannot be trusted but several UK Prime Ministers have gone on record stating that if Scotland desires independence Scotland shall have independence. How, on your planet, could such a desire ever be expressed in an acceptable form. If electing a majority of pro-independence MPs to the UK legislature is insufficient, what does it take on Aventinian World?
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"My instinct is to agree with your opinion of his verse, but I've never so much as glanced at it." - agentmancuso

Lewis · No Longer a Wean Joined: 21 Feb 2008 Posts: 81

Reluctant Hero · Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:04 pm Post subject:

Interesting article in the Scotsman about Salmond's target

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com...gainst-Salmond-hitting.4015645.jp
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Holebender · Posted: Fri Apr 25, 2008 11:18 am Post subject:

Just to clear up a possible misunderstanding, I believe 30 is the real target to aim for, not that anyone should make a public proclamation which could become a hostage to fortune. I don't think the SNP should be going around saying they intend to have 30+ MPs after the next election, but I do believe 30+ is the real prize.
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"My instinct is to agree with your opinion of his verse, but I've never so much as glanced at it." - agentmancuso