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kevin04
I Love 'Our Scotland'
Joined: 06 Mar 2007
Posts: 349
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 Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:49 pm Post subject: New Poll in Scotsman - Independence at it's lowest |
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http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com...says-support-for-Scots.4033511.jp
but in voting patterns how do Labour seem to keep they're level of support?
How are Labour not losing votes ? and how are the Tories dropping 4% they've been one of the most consistent parties and Goldie is a full-on straight talking type of Leader, unlike Alexander and Stephen.
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chicmac
Gaining a Reputation........
Joined: 18 Mar 2008
Posts: 203
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| Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 5:07 pm Post subject: Re: New Poll in Scotsman - Independence at it's lowest |
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| kevin04 wrote: | http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com...says-support-for-Scots.4033511.jp
but in voting patterns how do Labour seem to keep they're level of support?
How are Labour not losing votes ? and how are the Tories dropping 4% they've been one of the most consistent parties and Goldie is a full-on straight talking type of Leader, unlike Alexander and Stephen. |
The "Independence within Europe" type questions have always been 25%-30%.
Questions asking about "Independence outside Europe" score even lower.
However "Independence Yes or No" has averaged a win for the Yes vote.
In fact the average predicted Yes vote in a referendum when a simple honest question is asked, is 54%.
There have even been polls(for the Scotsman) where the same respondants have been asked both types of question the 'Independence in Europe' one and the plain 'Independence' one, and in those cases support for independence in Europe was again <30% but independence plain and simple >50%
The reason for this is basic stats.
Eaxample 1: If Europe enjoyed 50% support spread randomly across the electorate and independence enjoyed 50% support as well, then the percentage supporting BOTH would only be 25%.
Example 2: Even if there were 70% support for independence and 70% support for Europe (unlikely level for Europe I think most will agree) then there would only be 49% support for both (provided the supports were truly randomly spread). i.e. it would still fail.
Including Europe (negatively or positively) will be guaranteed to bring about a result like this and for that reason no Electoral Commission worthy of the name, or indeed the UNHRC, would ratify such a ridiculous type of question.
The even lower result was from a multi-option question where a more powers option was one of the alternatives to independence.
Independence + 'more powers' was also a majority but the paper chose to count 'more powers' in with the status quo.
Past results indicate that actually the vast majority of the 'more powers' would jump in the direction of independence if given only the two options. |
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William_Cleland
I really have nothing else to do!!!
Joined: 22 Apr 2007
Posts: 859
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| Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 1:13 am Post subject: |
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| The problem with that analysis is that when both inside and outside the EU options are factored in, independence support is usually about 35%. When the meaning of the word "independence" is defined in the question support is usually significantly below 50%. The electorate right now is somewhere between the Labour and SNP postures on this issue. They want a stronger Scottish parliament but don't want to go all the way. The short to medium term future for the SNP is probably a gradualist CiU and PNV sort of approach in other words as the electorate will set the pace on what is achievable. The time will be ripe for an independence referendum only when there is a solid majority for it at Holyrood. |
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chicmac
Gaining a Reputation........
Joined: 18 Mar 2008
Posts: 203
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| Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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| William_Cleland wrote: | | The problem with that analysis is that when both inside and outside the EU options are factored in, independence support is usually about 35%. . |
If you read it again, you will see that I start off be stating that poll support for independence in Europe is usually less than 30%. For the independence outside Europe option it is usually lower still.
This is not a 'problem with that analysis'
There are, however, several issues with this kind of analysis, to do with the fact we are dealing with human beings rather than dice.
First, the assumption that both support for independence and support for the EU is randomly distributed. While there are clearly pro independence supporters who are anti EU and pro independence supporters who are pro EU AND there are pro union supporters who are likewise for and against the EU, there may yet be a linkage to some extent between support for independence and support for the EU.
However, if there is, it is not terribly evident. As stated, there have been polls where respondants have been given both options - independence and independence in Europe, and this clearly demonstrated that support for independence was >50% and support for independence + Europe was <30% from the same set of respondants at the same time. In the voters minds at least, these options are completely different.
Second, the assumption that, for instance someone who is anti EU, will always vote no to the independence + EU option may not be correct. Human beings can and do make judgement calls between the lesser of two evils. In this example, between continued membership of the EU versus continuing as a UK dependency.
In this instance I suspect the respondant is more likely to register a protest in an opinion poll rather than in a once in a lifetime referendum.
There are other issues but those two human factors are the main cautionaries which could potentially upset the analysis. Again, however, the actual poll results align very closely with the predictions of the straight product of probabilities treatment used, so it would seem to be at least a useful model.
| William_Cleland wrote: |
When the meaning of the word "independence" is defined in the question support is usually significantly below 50%. |
Adding conditions to 'independence', even just one condition, is not a definition it is an obfuscation.
It is also highly dishonest. To illustrate, let's consider again the single biggest known wrecking device when attached to independence in a referendum question - Europe.
Let's imagine that by some miracle, all those pro independence anti EU voters become so sickened with UK membership that they decide to vote for an "Independence in Europe" option anyway. This also assumes there would ever be such a question which is, itself, highly unlikely.
In that instance, this would effectively be a double referendum.
For example, say the newly independent Scottish Government was not happy with the re-negotiated EU settlement and wanted to leave.
The EU could point to the referendum result and say 'But the people have recently voted only for independence within the EU.". The unionists would point to the referendum result and say "If you leave the EU you will need to retest the question of independence" (Yes, they will insist on that even if the rump UK is still a member of the EU.)
In addition to that, the re-negotiations with the EU themselves would be hamstrung, because Scottish ministers would have been deprived of their potentially trump card.
So the only way the Europe condition could honestly be made, would be if all potential future independent Scottish Governments were in favour of EU membership for the forsee-able future, when in fact none are.
In fact I doubt if even the most fervent EU supporters would be willing to endorse such an unnecessary contractual obligation.
It is also highly unlikely that the UN, the main arbiter in the process of international recognition (or otherwise), would accept or ratify a question such as this. Not just because of the undoubtedly non-sensical statistical distortion such a wrecking mechanism would engender but also on the principle of self-determination itself.
An extrapolation may clarify - say the option was "Independence in Europe, with a monarchy, with faith schools, with a designated nuclear dump area etc etc." - Hell let's say an entire constitution/manifesto was tied to the option. In that instance (of course not one that would ever be voted for) no sane person could describe that as self-determination when there was nothing left for the 'independent' nation to determine. Even just one condition would be an attempt to 'sign away' part of the people's right to self-determination and would meet with disaprobation by the UNHRC.
For example, the independence referendum in Ossetia has not been recognised by the UN because it also stipulated membership of the Russian Federation. Admittedly, this was a convenient opt out for political reasons, namely the back-door imperialism of Russia, but nevertheless illustrates the point.
| William_Cleland wrote: |
The electorate right now is somewhere between the Labour and SNP postures on this issue. They want a stronger Scottish parliament but don't want to go all the way. The short to medium term future for the SNP is probably a gradualist CiU and PNV sort of approach in other words as the electorate will set the pace on what is achievable. The time will be ripe for an independence referendum only when there is a solid majority for it at Holyrood. |
I agree here to an extent. I believe the bulk of the electorate who would like to see an independent Scotland would prefer a period with full fiscal autonomy - just to make sure that the fiscal scaremongering of the unionists is lies - before comitting to independence.
I also believe that, given a multi-option referendum (especially of course, if STV is used and the 'more powers' option included full fiscal autonomy), that the 'more powers' option would win. It would be very strange, with STV, if it did not.
However, again mainly because of the UN and even because of an Electoral Commission which has not covered itself in ethical glory, I do not think a multi-option referendum will ever see the light of day.
Even when a seat of imperial power has insisted on a 'more powers' option (a common delaying tactic), the UN have insisted then that the status quo is dropped.e.g. East Timor referendum 'more powers' v 'independence'.
So that is the best I think the Us can hope for - 'more powers' v 'independence' and how that turns out will depend entirely on the detail of the 'more powers' option.
Of course, at the moment, the Us are pretending the independence option doesn't exist, like some backward tin-pot dictatorship, but that will soon wilt once international scrutiny is under way.
I have no doubt, that given a straight 'status quo' v 'independence' option that the 'gradualists' would plump for independence. |
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